Rishi Sunak He believes it is “not practical” to send in British fighters ukraineDespite being keen to extend support to Kyiv to avoid a protracted stalemate in the country’s war with the Russian invaders.
Western defense officials warned Tuesday that the Ukraine conflict is likely to last throughout 2023, even as both sides make territorial gains at different times.
The prime minister told his cabinet on Tuesday that a “prolonged stalemate” in the war in Ukraine “will only benefit” Russiaand its president Vladimir PutinAccording to number 10.
He said they should seize the opportunity to “intensify” UK support to give Ukraine the “best chance of success” and make the most of a window of opportunity where Russian forces were on the backfoot.
But Downing Street said training Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces on the “hugely sophisticated” Typhoon and F-35 would take too long. However, No. 10 did not protest the allies sending their own jets.
Officials also said recent pledges by the UK, US, Germany mean the total number of tanks headed to Ukraine has now exceeded 300, Mr Zelensky has said – but the vehicles are expected to arrive in March. Not likely to be sent to the battlefield until the end.
Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace The US estimate shared with cabinet ministers is that 180,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the year-long invasion. This is compared to the death toll of around 15,000 people during the decade-long war in Afghanistan.
Other Western officials were more cautious in their casualty estimates, suggesting that both sides had suffered more than 100,000 killed and wounded—the Russians maintaining a higher proportion of casualties.
The Kremlin has also lost two-thirds of its tanks, Mr Wallace also told ministers. A UK national security official has told the cabinet that the Russian military is suffering from equipment and ammunition shortages, and has observed “significant shortages” among its fighting forces and officers.
In what he termed a Goldman Sachs-style review, Mr Sunak decided that “the allure of a simple war” would not benefit Ukraine given Russia’s advantage in numbers.
The PM’s spokesman said that he believed “we must accelerate our support while working with allies that we think can make decisive gains in this ongoing conflict for Ukraine this year.”
The prime minister said his new strategy would be accompanied by “greater diplomatic efforts and planning work” with Ukraine. But this does not include sending advanced fighter jets that Kyiv is demanding.
Mr Sunak’s official spokesman said: “The UK’s Typhoon and F-35 fighter jets are highly sophisticated and take months to learn to fly. Given this, we believe it is not practical to send those jets to Ukraine. “
The Number 10 official said the “length of time” in training is the limiting factor rather than opposition to supplying Ukraine with the lethal weapon – but did not rule out allies’ support for supplying the jets.
US President Joe Biden said on Monday that he is not transferring warplanes to Kyiv despite requests. French President Emmanuel Macron said “in principle nothing is out there” when asked about the possible use of Western fighter jets in Ukraine – but warned against any “provocation”.
Western defense officials suggested that beyond recent gains on the outskirts of the city of Bakhmut, Russia was unlikely to achieve significant success in southeast Ukraine. The Russian capture of the town of Soledar and creeping gains in the villages near Bakhmut were described as “sideshows”.
Officials said the Russians were struggling to make up for huge losses in Ukraine in recent months, and were competing with Ukraine to fill the gap in arms and equipment supplies.
Despite weeks of trench warfare, the frontline in eastern Ukraine has been largely frozen since November after Kyiv captured large swathes of territory during the second half of 2022.