opinion | Saudi Arabia prepares to host a humble Joe Biden

That feeling has become mutual. In March, the Crown Prince declined a call from the White House. He is part of a new generation of Saudi leaders who do not share the view of their predecessors that the US is an essential security partner and are instead turning to China and Russia. China’s arms transfers have increased by nearly 400% over the past four years – mostly drones, which the US has refused to sell to Riyadh.

The 79-year-old president and the 36-year-old Crown Prince will not aim to resolve these tensions. Both leaders are looking for more personal gain than furthering mutual security interests as each distrusts the other’s commitment to cooperation. Mr Biden, like President Obama, seeks to improve relations with Iran, not Saudi Arabia – a country he despises for its human rights abuses and the monarchy. For Crown Prince Mohammed, fear of Iran is a major reason for working with the US, although progress for Tehran looks unlikely given the pending Biden administration.

Then the goal of both leaders is public rehabilitation. Mr Biden would like to secure more Saudi oil ahead of November’s midterm elections to ease the pump pain for American voters. Crown Prince Mohammed wants to move ahead with the Jamal Khashoggi assassination by joining hands with the US President. He received similar blessings from the leaders of France, Britain and Turkey this spring.

Since policy breakthroughs are unlikely, be prepared for hype on so-called strategic achievements. The White House is already suggesting it played a role in transferring sovereignty of the two Red Sea islands from Egypt to Saudi Arabia. The islands were demilitarized as a part of the 1979 Israel–Egypt peace treaty, and were transferred by Egypt in 2018 with Israeli approval. The same applies to the Saudis’ permission to fly over their airspace by flights to and from Tel Aviv. Team Biden is declaring this limited Saudi-Israeli collaboration as their achievement, even though it has been going on for years. While informal, Saudi-Israeli relations are getting stronger daily without any help from the US. Both countries fear Iran, and both doubt Washington’s security guarantees.

At Mr Biden’s larger request – producing more oil – he is likely to fail. Saudi Arabia, the only country with large surplus production capacity, is no longer willing to increase or reduce oil production at Washington’s request. Even if that were to happen, putting real pressure on prices would require all of Saudi Arabia’s million barrels a day of additional capacity and more than other producers. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PLUS agreed to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August in June, yet US gasoline prices have fallen to just $4.60 a gallon.

In particular, Crown Prince Mohammed is more determined to protect the kingdom’s deep ties with Russia than a poor security partnership with the US, this is because the Crown Prince personally persuaded

Vladimir Putin

Russia coordinated production with OPEC in 2016 to help propel oil prices to record levels.

The US has not offered such cooperation, especially when it comes to Saudi’s most important concern: security. While the Biden administration is encouraging Israeli-Arab coordination against Iranian terrorist attacks on oil facilities, there are no concrete plans to do so. Gulf countries are divided over air-defense coordination, fearing that Saudi Arabia will dominate any such cooperation. They are also divided over coordination with Israel. The failure of the Trump and Biden administrations to respond to repeated Iranian missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has made both countries angry and suspicious of US promises. Any security pledge made by either side at this summit will require patience, incremental progress to rebuild trust.

Despite these challenges, the US and Saudis must rebuild cooperation. As Israel continues to attack Iranian defense and nuclear sites and Iran moves closer to a nuclear breakout, the security environment becomes more uncertain. Saudi leaders fear Israel’s strike against Iran will damage Tehran’s missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities, slashing Riyadh’s revenues, while skyrocketing global oil prices. This is reason enough for Riyadh and Washington to seek a coordinated US-led strategy to defend the Gulf.

In the absence of this, Arab countries have begun to take possible steps to coordinate security measures. Iraq and Saudi Arabia conducted joint military exercises last month for the first time in more than two decades. Crown Prince Mohammed also visited Jordan and Egypt, two Saudi allies that have peace treaties with Israel. Perhaps the most important meeting of Mr. Biden on this visit is the summit of the Gulf countries, including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq. Every country is skeptical about America’s commitment.

Even though Mr. Biden may not have gone with anything concrete on oil or security, his administration would benefit from seeing firsthand the dramatic change going on in Saudi Arabia. Once a hardline country spreading Islamic fundamentalism throughout the Middle East, the state has become a regional model of social liberalization and religious tolerance. Ironically, Saudi Arabia is now a much more necessary and more qualified security partner than when Franklin D. Roosevelt began the partnership nearly eight decades ago. This is not a democracy, and neither do most Saudis want it. But it is a rich, powerful country whose leader—with or without Mr. Biden’s blessing—is determined to put his state at the forefront of the developed world. And he has at least 50 years to work at his age.

The summit seems likely to humble the President who sought to humble the Crown Prince.

Ms. House, former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, is the author of “On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past, Religion, Fault Lines—and the Future”.