Brussels, Belgium
CNN
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Three years ago last week, the Iran nuclear deal came into force, limiting the country’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. but in view of Trump Administration Returns With the deal, and relations between the EU and Iran rapidly deteriorating, there are growing doubts that it will see its fourth birthday.
Europeans and Iran are at loggerheads on many issues: Iran ballistic missile programAttacks and conspiracies against Iranian dissidents in Europe and slow progress toward relief from the effects of US sanctions.
Earlier this month a meeting between several European diplomats and the Iranian deputy foreign minister, Syed Abbas Araqchi, is reported to have ended with acrimony. The Iranian news agency Antekhab, citing unnamed sources, said Arkchi dismissed European complaints about the missile program and conspiracy against Iranian dissidents.
Entekhub quoted Araqchi as saying at the meeting: “I thought you came here to talk about your laxity about the JCPOA. [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] And the terrorists you have sheltered in Europe and apologize.”
The agency reports that he walked out saying: “The meeting is over.”
Iran’s foreign ministry did not confirm the details of the meeting.
many European countries have accused That Iran’s security services have plotted to kill dissidents in Europe.
In October, Denmark accuses Iranian agents Attempts to carry out a plot to assassinate an Iranian-Arab opposition figure on Danish soil.
On the same day as Tehran’s unfortunate meeting, the Netherlands blamed Iran for two killings on its soil in 2015 and 2017. On the same day, the European Union designated the Iranian intelligence ministry as a terrorist organization. It was a shot across the bow rather than a punitive measure.
An EU source told CNN that the Iranians should stop attacks in Europe. “We hope they sort it out and don’t shoot themselves in the foot,” he said. “If I were Iran, I would look around and see that Europe is my best friend in a very volatile world.”
However, the same source warned: “The main difficulty with Iran is that there are many Irans.”
“We are dealing with the part of Iran that wants to save it” [nuclear deal], There are many other layers of onions called Iran,” the source said.
“There are growing concerns, including Iran’s destabilizing role in the region – particularly by supporting non-state actors in Syria,” another EU source said.
On Monday, Germany banned Iranian airline Mahan Air for allegedly being involved in shipping supplies to the Syrian regime, saying it “will not allow air traffic to Germany by companies that support the war in Syria”. and will aid in suppressing the people in the war zones.”
Iran also has its grievances. Europeans promised a financial mechanism to help Iran deal with the effects of US sanctions. Known as a “special purpose vehicle”, it would give Iran access to the international financial system to help import basic goods. The fall of the Iranian rial has caused widespread shortages of medical supplies and equipment in Iran.
The SPV was first proposed in September, but has not yet seen the light of day. A European official told CNN on Tuesday that construction of the SPV is “in its final stages” and aims to be operational by the end of this month. But the official said it was not yet clear which Iranian bank would be its partner.
There are doubts within the Iranian hierarchy as to whether the Europeans will deliver. Ahmed Jannati, the powerful chairman of the Guardian Council said last week That “to expect Europeans to comply with their JCPOA obligations is foolish,” adding: “They are dragging their feet and will never do anything in our favor.”
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Another key official, Kamal Kharazi – head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations – complained that European governments were not encouraging major companies to do business with Iran.
Several large European companies have already cut or ended trading ties with Iran, fearing they could become targets of US sanctions.
A senior State Department official warned last month, “If you are the CEO of a European company and you are given the choice between doing business in the United States market or the Iranian market, it is the fastest decision you will ever make.” Will also serve as CEO.” ,
The official also said that Washington expects Europe to impose new sanctions on Iran because of its ballistic missile program, adding that recent missile tests “were not defensive in nature” and that Iran “has been able to carry many weapons, including nuclear weapons”. Saksham” missiles were launched.
Mogherini: Is war a substitute for Iran’s diplomacy?
Iran tested a medium-range ballistic missile in December, prompting the US to allege that such action was in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.
Pressure on Europe from the Trump administration is expected to intensify at a summit on Middle East security scheduled for Warsaw in February, and Europeans have been scrambling to tighten their policy before then. As one European diplomat told CNN: “There is still a lot of diplomatic activity and time is running out.”
Despite two harsh rounds of sanctions imposed by the US on its financial institutions and oil exports last August and November, Iran has plenty of reasons to stay in the nuclear deal.
US President Donald Trump did Threatened to cut Iranian oil exports to zero But his administration has since granted exemptions to a number of buyers, including Japan, Turkey and South Korea. According to industry sources, Iran is still exporting more than one million barrels a day.
Much of that oil goes to Asia – but if Iran withdraws from the JCPOA, market demand is likely to drop, and sharply. Henry writes in Rome, “Among Iran’s top buyers, Japan and South Korea would be most likely to halt purchases if Iran stopped complying with the deal.” foreign Affairs,
In May, the Trump administration will decide whether to renew an exemption allowing Iran to export some oil. This could be a turning point, Rome said. “Washington is confident that with increasing global oil supply, coupled with slowing international demand, the US will have the advantage of further reducing Iranian exports.”
That would make it harder for Europe, China and Russia – the other signatories to the JCPOA – to survive the deal. Without substantial help, Iran may feel that it has nothing to gain from continuing to impose both heavy sanctions and shutting down its nuclear program.