recent study found that an increase in the number of rainy days leads to a fall in economic output. Researchers in Germany considered rainfall and temperature records along with historical datasets on economic output from 1554 regions around the world spanning the past four decades.
“The Rain Stops Benefit” – Our Study of the Week @nature Main story! Much attention is paid to the effects of temperature but little is known about the macroeconomic costs of rainfall change. Well, here are some proofs from the past 40 years and over 1500 regions around the world: pic.twitter.com/XMgilbE3cf
— Leonie Wenz (@Leonie_Climate) 12 January 2022
The paper, published last week in Nature, came with three major takeaways.
One, negative rainfall shocks, meaning that low rainfall on a monthly basis causes strong and significant damage. When an economy has already adapted to a certain rainfall profile, negative divergence towards drought-like conditions can be harmful. Furthermore, while higher annual rainfall initially benefits economic growth, these benefits diminish with even more rainfall.
Two, an increase in the number of wet days (ie days with more than 1 mm of rainfall) corresponds to sub-optimal economic conditions.
Third, an increase in excessive daily rainfall leads to a reduction in growth rate; Or, in other words, “an increase in both the number and severity of days of extreme rainfall within a given year reduces economic productivity.”
However, the effect is not uniform across all regions of the world. Major industrial regions such as the US, Central Europe, China, Korea and Japan have been the worst affected in such a scenario.
The economic effects of climate change come from the *extreme*, not just the *average*
Economic development is affected by excessive rainfall. Rich countries bear the brunt of it. @KotzMaximilian @ALevermann @Leonie_Climate nature https://t.co/drg5bsyG66 #jay
— Dr. KellyHarrid (@kellyherrid) 13 January 2022
In addition, poorer countries are most vulnerable, showing 62 percent greater sensitivity to total annual rainfall than richer countries. Rich countries, on the other hand, are more sensitive to changes in the ‘number of wet days’, showing 47 percent greater sensitivity than poorer countries. This is explained by the fact that changes in annual/monthly/daily rainfall also do not affect all sectors of the economy.
The team noted that the services (tertiary) and manufacturing (secondary) sectors are the worst affected, while the agriculture (primary) sector shows no response to excessive daily rainfall and the number of wet days.
Since rich countries are least dependent on agriculture and more dependent on the secondary and tertiary sector, they are more sensitive to the parameters of daily rainfall.
Lead co-author Anders Levermann from the Complexity Science Domain of the Potsdam Institute, Germany, says, “Our study shows that this is the fingerprint of global warming in daily precipitation, which has huge economic impacts that are not yet accounted for, but they are highly relevant”. in a release. “A closer look at shorter time scales rather than annual averages helps to understand what’s going on: it’s the daily precipitation that threatens … the damage we do to our economies by destabilizing our climate.” “
Determining the impact of water availability and variability on the economy has long been under academic and policy-making scanners.
A 2020 paper considered that “water scarcity could result in trade losses for countries producing water-consuming goods” and a 2019 study on Latin American cities showed that water Lack of “employment can reduce the chances of hourly wages.” , working hours, and labor income,” especially for the informal workforce. An earlier 2020 study also estimated that a 3.5°C increase in global average surface temperature by 2100 would increase global output by 7 will decrease by 14 percent.
-The author is a freelance science communicator. (Match[at]Ritwik[dot]With)
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