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YEREVAN, Armenia – For weeks, a new sight has been appearing on the dusty mountain roads of Armenia. Amidst aging Russian Ladas and imported German cars, you’ll spot a fleet of shiny SUVs emblazoned with the blue-and-gold-starred flag of the European Union. Peeping through the tinted glass, you’ll see half a dozen sets of body armor and helmets stacked in the back.
In September, towns and villages in former Soviet republics caught fire from neighboring Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijani troops pushed across the border to capture strategic heights. The hostilities, known to many Armenians as the Two-Day War, ended with a Western-backed ceasefire, but claimed the lives of hundreds of soldiers on both sides.
The bloody episode was the most serious escalation since 2020, when the two countries fought a brutal war over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, inside Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders but ruled by its ethnic-Armenian majority since the collapse of the USSR. Controlled.
Within weeks of the conflict, around 40 EU civilian monitors began arriving in the region daily to observe the tense demarcation line dividing the two South Caucasus countries, amid frequent reports of shelling, shelling and ceasefire violations. were driving Nearly 1,000 kilometers away from the bloc’s easternmost member state and three time zones ahead of Brussels, France, Germany, Poland, Greece, Italy and a group of other European countries are far from home.
Armenia is, at least on paper, one of Russia’s closest allies and a member of the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Under the terms of the mutual defense pact, thousands of Moscow troops have been stationed at permanent bases in the country, close to the borders with Turkey, Georgia and Iran. The Russian FSB security agency oversees the border, and the country’s state firms operate its railways and several other strategic sectors.
Russian influence is waning
However, as September rained down on the shells, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s calls for the CSTO’s intervention fell on deaf ears, with the bloc eventually agreeing only to send a toothless ‘fact-finding’ mission. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev said, “We have more friends in the CSTO than Armenia.” Told in November, despite his own country’s withdrawal from the alliance in 1999. Meanwhile, strongman leader of member state Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, described Aliyev as “our man” and had supported Baku’s military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh two years earlier.
Also, for more than a month now, areas of the breakaway region are still under Armenian control. effective blockade By self-described Azerbaijani eco-activists, supplies of food and medicine are running low. The only road into or out of Nagorno-Karabakh, known as the Lachin Corridor, was overseen by Russian peacekeepers as part of a 2020 peace deal that ended the war. Yerevan blames the row apparently on the effects of illegal gold mining, in fact an excuse for “ethnic cleansing”, and Moscow’s military appears unwilling or unable to end the sit-in.
Anger toward Russia grows as humanitarian situation worsens unprecedented protests There have been organized calls for a withdrawal from the CSTO in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and instead support from the West. Brussels has also expressed its concern over the situation, along with the US, UK and several other European countries. “The European Union calls on the Azerbaijani authorities to ensure freedom and security of movement along the corridor,” read a statement in December. “Restrictions on such freedom of movement pose significant risks to local populations and raise humanitarian concerns.”
On Thursday, the European Parliament will vote on a motion that “strongly condemns the latest military offensive by Azerbaijan in September,” and “underlines the EU’s readiness to become more actively involved in settling the region’s long-standing conflicts.”
many members of the assembly have to plead Brussels to offer Armenia more than just warm words. Nathalie Loiseau, a French MEP and chair of the subcommittee on security and defence, said earlier this month that Russia is “no longer a credible actor in the region”, with Moscow’s influence dwindling since its disastrous invasion of Ukraine. , adding that the bloc must take steps to “protect universal values”.
Extended EU Mission
Now however, it appears that there are plans to take a more assertive role in this area. On Wednesday, a person inside the EU’s External Action Service confirmed to POLITICO that plans are being finalized to expand and extend the monitoring mission along Armenia’s borders after it expires in December. .
“There was a mutual understanding with the authorities in Yerevan that a renewed presence is needed, but the previous one was too small. Now 100 monitors will be deployed in the region as part of a fully general security and defense policy mission. Insider According to the source, “There are a number of steps that still need to be clarified before their deployment, and it will now go to the Political and Security Committee in Brussels, which will seek a two-year mandate.”
However, the official stressed that strained ties with Russia would have to be navigated given its presence in the region. “The FSB is everywhere in Armenia. We have had a few cases where our monitors were returned by Russian border guards, even though they were accompanied by personnel from the Armenian Defense Ministry, which was all about this Armenian territory.
Last summer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen flew to Baku to sign an agreement with President Aliyev that sees Azerbaijan increasing its energy exports to member states and increasing its energy exports to an annual 20 billion cubic meters by 2027. Will provide natural gas (expected to 12 billion cubic meters in 2023), helping to develop alternatives to Russian supply.
After describing the country as a “reliable partner” in the region, the move caught fire from analysts and policymakers who feared it would compromise Europe’s ability to negotiate peace in the war-torn region.
Azerbaijan has since refused permission for a cross-border mission with Aliyev. by stating Talk of a major EU presence in early January was “very unpleasant” and “would not enhance security, but would undermine the talks.”
Despite this, Rusif Huseynov, director of Baku’s Topchubashov Center think tank, says Azerbaijan is reluctant to “internationalize” the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, seeing Brussels as playing a role in stoking hostilities between his country and Armenia. is seen. “The European Union has been seen as a positive actor in Azerbaijan for many years, and a major economic partner,” he explained, “and it is seen as a better mediator than others available.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reacting to talk of a possible monitoring delegation Told on Wednesday that Moscow would be prepared to send a mission of its own if only it had been asked for. “Despite the fact that we are allies, the Armenian side prefers to negotiate with the EU,” he said.
“It is important that the EU also plays a role on the fringes of Europe,” said Henri Duquesne, spokesman for Brussels’ special representative in the South Caucasus. “Different member states have different interests, but overall this is a priority area for us.”
While Russia goes all out in its efforts to conquer Ukraine, Moscow seems unable to say the same.