The world has been reminded of Russia’s trust in recent weeks. As gas prices rise across Europe due to short supplies of Russian gas and Putin sever his country’s loose diplomatic ties with NATO, it is worth examining how seriously Western policymakers misjudge Putin. have read and ignored their desire to use the weapons at their disposal.
It is no secret that many European countries, including Germany, depend on Russian supplies of natural gas. The recent shortage has not only affected the economic, but also the geopolitical risks of this dependency.
While Russia is meeting its current obligations to supply to European countries, analysts say it may increase exports to enable further cold storage, thereby reducing costs and calming nerves. Can go
The pipeline is controversial because many see it as a geopolitical impact project for Moscow, a fear that was not pacified when Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month that Nord Stream 2 For “quick completion of authentication” will help “cool down”. out of the present situation.”
In addition to the financial and geopolitical benefits that come from Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, it also helps fuel a domestic political narrative that has developed over time in Russia: the West keeps getting things wrong.
“The core of this narrative is that Europe and the West need to rethink their broken policies, whether on energy, foreign intervention or nation-building,” says Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at Crisis Group in Russia.
“Ten years ago, this argument was more defensive, as the Kremlin wanted to protect itself from criticism from Western governments or NGOs. But now Russia can argue that Western policies in Libya, Syria and now Afghanistan have failed so badly. that Russia’s approach has actually been correct all along,” he added.
Western failure and Russian success are, of course, relative to the priorities of each party. Putin has called the collapse of the Soviet Union the “greatest geopolitical tragedy” of the 20th century.
When you include this in so much of Putin’s behavior over the past decade – annexing Crimea, gaslighting the West over military action in Syria by denying Russia’s activity, stirring up tensions between NATO and Turkey – the image of a leader Making it easy is trying to restore the pride of its country and is only very happy to take advantage of the opportunities provided by its gullible global counterparts.
“Since the end of the Cold War, many of Putin’s generation have assumed that it was still in a political war with the West,” says Mark Gelotti, an honorary professor at University College London, currently based in Moscow. .
“It became more intense after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and that is why you now see Russia more comfortable placing troops on international borders, spreading propaganda and going after political dissidents. He is concerned, this is a war footing. For the West, although Russia is extremely troubled, is not really such a great threat, says Galeotti.
Some argue that Putin’s relatively limited threat has led to a faded Western policy in the face of Russian aggression. This, in turn, means that the Russian president can act hostile with little consequences.
This, potentially, plays into Putin’s hands, as it allows him to spin these events as evidence that he is an untouchable talisman who is sticking it to the West, a topic he pondered on Thursday evening. Heated in a speech at the annual Valdai Discussion Club. In which he slammed the US for the “mess” created in Afghanistan.
“The West’s long-term failure is treating each hostile act as a separate event rather than looking at Russia’s overall pattern,” says Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House. and author of the upcoming book “How Russia Gets Its Way”.
This, Giles argues, is at the heart of what is happening right now.
“Russia is becoming more open and direct. When Russia exploits Europe’s gas crisis through its Nord Stream pipeline project, or cuts all remaining links with NATO, it is done openly and now There is no pretense that Moscow is working towards good relations with the West. This is the same pattern we see domestically within Russia – the increased repression is now evident and intensified, as the Kremlin has Don’t care anymore.”
The limited results for the West, of course, offer little comfort to those opposed to Putin inside and outside Russia.
“Putin is an opportunist. NATO’s dissent is his greatest gift,” says Riho Teras, a former commander of the Estonian Defense Forces. “German dependence on Russian gas is a problem for those of us who share a border because it undermines unity. Brexit may be good for the UK, but it raises questions of the European military which is clearly NATO. will be weaker than that.”
Some believe Putin’s greatest asset has been the hysteria and exaggeration of the threat he poses to parts of the West, with limited push for his sincere hostility from powerful nations, including the US. -Mukki is also included.
“Every time an opportunity appears, he will take it. It happened in Ukraine, it happened in Georgia. He understands only strong messages and will respond in kind if we keep showing dissent. He is a streetfighter. West Trying to figure out how to skate around Russia, but Putin plays ice hockey,” Teras says.
Opposition figures in Russia believe the West may take action that could weaken Putin’s position.
Vladimir Ashrakov, an opposition politician and executive director of the Anti-Corruption Foundation of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, says, “Personal sanctions against people close to Putin, who are involved in corruption and human rights abuses, go a long way towards achieving this goal.” will lead the way.” .
However, the myth that has been fed by Western confusion and passivity about who Putin really is, and what he wants, has gone some way to creating a domestic colossus that can increasingly act in a way that only myths. in Russia around him.
To the frenzy of Russia as a whole over the past decade, it may be that the West’s reluctance to truly understand Putin helped create the most dangerous version of the man that had ever been possible.
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