Yemen truce ‘broadly holding’ but fragile, says UN envoy

IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: Russia can hope to replicate China’s success in restoring diplomatic ties between Middle East giants Saudi Arabia and Iran by overseeing the resumption of bilateral ties between Syria and Turkey. But analysts caution that fundamental differences between the two attempts at normalization weigh against a quick success.

In December, Moscow hosted a meeting of Syrian and Turkish defense ministers for talks, seen as the beginning of a possible rapprochement between the two rivals. It was the highest-level meeting between Turkish and Syrian officials since the breakdown of relations between the two countries following the start of the Syrian civil war in 2012.

Moscow will host another meeting on April 3-4 between the deputy foreign ministers of Syria, Turkey, Iran and Russia, where they will discuss the situation in Syria. A senior Turkish official told Reuters the meeting “is expected to be a continuation of ministerial meetings that began during the normalization process promoted by Russia”.

Joshua Landis, director of both the Center for Middle East Studies and Farzaneh, said, “Russia has good relations with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which gives it authority and weight in Turkish-Syrian talks.” The Family Center for Iranian and Arab Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma told Arab News.

“Syria and Turkey also have several major obstacles impeding a deal – Turkey occupies about 10 percent of Syrian land and supports rebel militias opposing Assad’s regime,” he said. ” They said.

Although Beijing has successfully acted as a mediator between Riyadh and Tehran due to its cordial relations with both countries, the US has not had diplomatic relations with Iran for decades. Washington also opposes Assad and discourages allies from restoring ties with Damascus. On the other hand, Russia maintains good relations with Turkey and Syria.

However, there is an important difference between the nature of these relationships. China has far more balanced relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran than Russia has with Turkey and Syria.

Emily Hawthorne, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence company RANE, told Arab News: “Russia is deeply engaged as a security guarantor for the Syrian government, which has been Moscow’s replacement for Damascus over the last decade of the civil war.” Thank you for your support.”

“This is very different from China’s more balanced relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran; China is not a security guarantor for Tehran or Riyadh.

“Russia’s close ties to the Syrian government certainly give Russia the power to mediate with Syria that few other countries have, but Russia lacks that same kind of relationship with Turkey.”

Anton Murdasov, an independent Russian analyst and non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute’s Syria Program, doubts that Moscow can achieve what Beijing did because it is “a party to the conflict in Syria”, even if it has tried to play a role. Why are you a mediator?

“The Kremlin finds itself in a difficult situation: on the one hand, it wants to increase Damascus’s potential in order to absolve itself of responsibility for its existence,” Mardasov told Arab News. “In this sense, the restoration and deepening of Syrian-Turkish relations, for example economic cooperation, is Moscow’s goal.”

“Moreover, given the war in Ukraine and Turkey’s importance as an economic partner, the Kremlin is interested in bringing Assad closer to Turkey, as it is in Ankara’s interest, primarily given the refugee issue, ” They said.

Strong disagreements between Ankara and Damascus over the future of northern Syria also complicate Moscow’s normalization efforts.

“The closest common area between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be Yemen, but Yemen is its own sovereign country and the dynamics of the conflict are very different,” Hawthorne said.

“Among the challenges Russia will face trying to mediate to restore Ankara-Damascus relations will be the challenging question of the future of northern Syria, and whether Damascus is ready to address Turkey’s security concerns about Kurdish militants there.” can promise.”

Mardasov said that Assad is in a weak position and is making unrealistic demands. He pointed out that Turkey formally has no troops in northern Syria because allied opposition groups control those areas, although it has troops along the border and can quickly intervene on behalf of these groups.

Referring to the trilateral Russia-Iran-Turkey Syria peace process launched in January 2017, he said, “The presence of Turkish troops in Idlib was formally approved not only by Russia but also by Iran within the framework of the Astana process.” ” , To insist on their return is to insist on breaking the agreements in Astana.

On top of this, Turkey controls Syrian territories that are home to millions of people, giving it a significant advantage.

“It is actually quite a delicate situation because Russia, as Assad’s protector, is also in a dependent position on Turkey, both in terms of projects against the background of the war in Ukraine and in terms of negotiations on the Syrian track,” Merdsov said. . “Here, it is more about tactical moves so that Moscow does not spoil its position strategically, the situation is not very beneficial for the Kremlin.”

Landis anticipates that negotiations will largely stall until after Turkey’s election on May 14.

“The Turkish opposition has condemned Erdogan’s policies towards Syria and claimed that it would move swiftly with the normalization of relations with Syria,” he said. “What’s more, Turkey’s opposition has little obligation to the Syrian rebel groups that Erdogan has supported and promised to protect.”

“If Kemal Kilikdaroglu wins in May, relations between Damascus and Ankara are likely to improve rapidly,” he said, “although the problem of dealing with four million refugees and Islamist militias will not go away.”

Russia also has an interest in achieving normalisation.

Hawthorne said, “A more stable client state for Russia means a more stable base for Russia in the wider Middle East.”

Besides, the stakes are not very high for Russia if its efforts on this front stall.

Hawthorne said, “If Moscow fails in this effort, it is not likely to markedly harm Russia’s position in the Middle East, which would reflect Russia’s ability to maintain a Rolodex of vastly different bilateral relations across the region.” Much depends on.”

“Russian mediation could move talks between Syria and Turkey forward, but until Ankara and Damascus reach an understanding on the future of northern Syria, Moscow is unlikely to succeed.”

Landis also pointed out that Russia has invested “a great deal” in Assad’s Syria and that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “victory” has been a “great foreign policy success” for Russia.

However, Syria remains “under threat” given the general boycott of Assad and the “devastating sanctions” imposed on Damascus.

Landis said, “If Putin can undo Syria’s isolation and help revive regional diplomatic and trade agreements, he will have locked in his success.”

Having said that, he is optimistic that Ankara and Damascus will eventually reach an agreement.

“I am confident that Syria and Turkey will normalize relations, even if the road is bumpy,” he said. “Both the countries share a border of 764 km. They have a common interest in getting US troops out of Syria, preventing the Kurds from arming, and cracking down on ‘terrorism’.

“Both are interested in returning to the good relations they shared before the war, which helped both countries to prosper and develop.”