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When Ursula von der Leyen decided to pin her legacy on bringing Europe together to stop catastrophic climate warming and restart its economy, she called the effort “Europe’s Man-on-the-Go”. -dubbed “Moon Moment”.
Then the world changed: the pandemic. Warning. inflation. A giant American scheme to woo green investors.
This has left the EU’s most prominent leader with an existential dilemma: to be able to deliver on his lofty Green Deal promises – seemingly a lifetime ago – von der Leyen will inevitably have to anger those have to do what they need to support them to stay in office.
The result is a landscape full of political minefields.
The European Commission president has not indicated whether she would seek a second term, but if she were to do so she would need two things: the support of her home country, Germany, and the EU’s 27 national leaders. Signature from Also there is one thing that would be mighty helpful: the endorsement of his own pan-EU political party, the European People’s Party (EPP), as its candidate.
Every climate decision on the horizon is bound to anger one (or more) of these key constituencies. Billions of Euros are on the line. Entire industries would be created, while others would wither.
The clock is ticking. Von der Leyen’s five-year term will end with elections in Europe in 2024, and Brussels is already shifting into campaign mode.
“It’s a very complex constellation deciding on her future,” said Christian Ehler, a German MEP from von der Leyen’s party EPP.
On Thursday, von der Leyen will stand face-to-face with the group that has the final say on her future: Europe’s 27 national leaders. Her Green Deal industrial plan, designed to fight a major US green subsidy push, has left von der Leyen stuck between economic giants France and Germany, who want her to allow the countries to invest more money in local companies; and smaller nations, which are not able to give their companies the kind of help they need in Paris and Berlin.
make-or-break constituencies
An EU diplomat, who spoke anonymously to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, said von der Leyen’s re-election “will obviously depend mostly on Germany and France (they run Europe). Said that the warnings expressed about subsidies would make it impossible to achieve.
Compounding his dilemma, von der Leyen is also dependent on the German government to remain in power. He should be named as the country’s representative in the European Commission.
The political constellation in Berlin has changed markedly since von der Leyen became its first president. At the time, his own Christian Democratic Party was in power and von der Leyen was a favorite of then-Chancellor Angela Merkel. Now, she faces a coalition of ruling parties made up of social democrats, business-friendly liberals, and crucially when it comes to the Green Deal, the Greens. Adding to the intrigue, under the government coalition deal, the Greens get the chance to choose Germany’s next commissioner if von der Leyen is not president.
The other constituency that could make or break von der Leyen’s ambitions for the next five years in power is the EPP, the centre-right political grouping in the European Parliament that has traditionally heeded business concerns. Already, its executives are showing signs of frustration with von der Leyen in his take on climate change, which he believes puts too much pressure on companies.
At a dinner in late January, the German EPP delegation in Brussels confronted the commission president – not for the first time – over moving too far, too fast on the green agenda, according to three people in attendance.
The conversation was polite yet forceful. And von der Leyen can’t ignore the messengers. Not only are they his countrymen and political stablemates, but they will also determine who becomes the EPP candidate for commission chairman.
On the day the German crew of the EPP broke bread with von der Leyen, the group’s chairman Manfred Weber, who was at the dinner, reflected in the pages of the Berliner Morgenpost that the party was fortunate to have two strong candidates: von der Leyen and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola. This is far from an outright von der Leyen endorsement.
Weber’s inclusion in the more conservative Metsola echoes chatter in Brussels.
The EU diplomat said, “There are candidates like Metsola, who get support … from smaller European countries”.
Disadvantages of Technocracy
Meanwhile, the EPP is quietly lighting bonfires under von der Leyen’s green regulatory agenda.
Since late last year, the EPP – represented in the three institutions of the European Union, the Parliament, the Commission and the Council, which speaks on behalf of EU countries – has fought the Commission’s climate legislation. It has sought to torpedo regulation of pesticides and chemicals, hammer out rules to make companies more responsible for their supply chains, and bar energy-saving requirements for new products.
Other, non-German members of the EPP see the pro-industry, German wing of the party as setting a too hard line on the Green Deal.
“Manfred Weber and the German side are dictating what we do, and the CDU has been sliding in the right direction for 10 years,” said an EPP MP, referring to von der Leyen’s Christian Democratic Party. “Very sad to see this.”
There is a concern among EPP officials that von der Leyen’s centre-right political tendencies have been swallowed up by the consensus-driven machine of Brussels policymaking and the Commission’s vast bureaucracy, which could become a liability for von der Leyen.
Thanasis Bakoulas, secretary general of the EPP party, told Politico, “Everyone forgets to be political … This is a reality Brussels is facing.”
German MEP Ehler blamed the Commission for turning the Green Deal into “the biggest regulatory effort in history”. He and other conservatives are pushing for a more industry-friendly version of the Green Deal.
And, notably, those who are formulating the EPP’s campaign strategy for the 2024 elections support the push.
“We need to say”it just is.’ Forget this red-tapism,” said Bakolas, who will play a key role in crafting the party’s message. “The EPP’s position on the Green Deal is not a sudden repudiation of the initiative as a whole,” he added. want them to be.
split commissioner
Such fractures are spreading across von der Leyen’s own territory, the European Commission.
Two senior commission officials told POLITICO that there is growing conflict among the 27 commissioners over the Green Deal, with commissioners from the EPP seeking to block green legislation it sees as burdensome to businesses. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, who is from France and not a member of the EPP, has also opposed some green efforts in what is widely seen as an attempt to steer himself to the top job in Brussels.
“Politically … it’s tough,” Financial Services Commissioner Mairead McGuinness told POLITICO recently in Davos. “I started hearing from some people that it is too much, it is too heavy, we need to be careful not to become a burden on companies,” she said in reference to her work around sustainable finance. “And of course, we have to listen, because competitiveness is really high on the agenda now.”
Executive Vice-President Frans Timmermans, the socialist commissioner overseeing the Green Deal (and a potential von der Leyen rival), has had to “fight tooth and nail” to keep parts of the package, particularly chemicals and other environmental files, from the hands of the government. A commission official said that is being completely abandoned.
“As for the EPP, it doesn’t matter how much it helps Europe’s stability and future growth, as long as you keep the industry afloat now,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak on the record.
McGuinness, whose Irish Fine Gael party is part of the EPP, said of the rift: “Ideology and pragmatism need to find the right balance here.”
A spokesman for von der Leyen did not respond to a request for comment.
Meanwhile, the commission’s efforts to put the brakes on green ambitions and listen closer to industry seem to be effecting a quiet change.
A senior commission official, who is also not authorized to speak publicly, pointed to the decision to delay steps to fight greenwashing as part of the circular economy package announced last November – the commission’s Fit for 55 An important part of the agenda.
“At the time it was considered very controversial politically given the adverse circumstances,” the official told POLITICO. “But eventually, it will be put back on the agenda in March. The key now for von der Leyen and his team is to pick their moment.
As von der Leyen attempts to strike a balance – preserving her green commitments without appearing too anti-business – pro-industry voices are convinced she is making a difference and building business and industry based on green ideals. Paying more attention to the needs of
Peter Lees, a German MEP from the EPP who has worked in the European Parliament on several climate files, has lobbied to remove red tape so that companies can more easily make clean tech investments. It was a key part of what von der Leyen set out in his new European Industrial Plan to be discussed by leaders this week.
“She’s listening,” said Leis.
Sarah Anne Arup contributed reporting.