DUBAI: Tehran’s representatives have been intensifying their activities on the battlefields of the Middle East in recent weeks. In Iraq, Syria and Yemen, forces loyal to the Iranian regime are busy, increasing attacks on US and Saudi targets.
A spark for this intensity may have been the second anniversary of the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who triggered still much chaos in the region. But some analysts believe the main reason for this is the resumption of Iran-US nuclear talks in Vienna.
As talks progress, officials in Iran are becoming increasingly upbeat, believing it is on the verge of salvaging a deal that would ease US sanctions on its financial institutions and political bodies.
An informed source told Arab News that the nuts and bolts of a new arrangement between Washington and Tehran are now mainly in force.
One remaining obstacle is Iran’s demand that the next US president not walk out of any new deals. Whether the US can honor such a pledge is not clear. In 2018, US President Donald Trump despised and abandoned the “unilateral deal”. Iran responded by ceasing its cooperation with international inspectors, which monitor its nuclear infrastructure and intensify its enrichment efforts.
The current president, Joe Biden, has largely staked the foreign policy legacy of his first term on restoring the agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. It has earned the ire of regional allies as their officials continue to negotiate with Iranian hardliners.
Iraqi spokesman Antifadh Qanbar said: “Iranians like to turn arms in negotiations. It seems that Robert Mali is working hard to please the Iranians and, unfortunately, the upper hand in the Biden administration when it comes to negotiations. The Biden administration is weakening, especially in light of the chaos in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.
Dr. Ras Zimmt, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, said: “Given the recent attacks on Syria and Iraq, one of the main reasons why this happened, I believe, is the second anniversary of the assassination. Qasim Soleimani.” He said that this has stalled talks from the Iranian side.
Washington’s response to attacks on US forces is a far cry from Trump’s response as Iran-backed rioters approached the US embassy in Baghdad two years ago after they approved of Soleimani’s killing.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi spoke on Soleimani’s death anniversary at a ceremony in a large prayer hall in Tehran. The president vowed revenge on Donald Trump, calling him the primary “aggressor and murderer.”
The Iranian general and his ally, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was also killed in a drone strike in January 2020, were masters of the art of conducting and bombing powerful proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. America in concessions with low intensity – but high political influence – rocket fire.
On Wednesday, an armed pro-Iranian militia named Ghasem al-Jabrayan claimed responsibility for Iraq’s drone and rocket attacks, which did not cause any casualties. The group posted online that they vowed to continue their attacks until a complete US withdrawal from Iraq. The group is believed to be a cover for one of the main Iranian proxies, whose influence is widespread in Iraq as the central government struggles to assert control.
Analysts in the region say the frequency of attacks in Iraq and Syria increases whenever an important political decision draws near. Few such decisions have had more consequences than reconnecting with Iran – an actor widely distrusted by the GCC and the rest of the Middle East.
To do so could be the biggest gamble of Biden’s presidency, a potentially destabilizing security arrangement with key US allies that would oppose such a move without tighter sanctions to deter covert attempts to build nuclear weapons. live.
However, other commentators have downplayed the impact of the attacks on the Vienna negotiations.
Mohand Hague Ali, communications director and Carnegie Middle East Center fellow, said: “These attacks are directed to serve an internal (Iranian) purpose and have little military significance given the absence of serious casualties. They are Iranian.” Major attacks against the military and their militias are more useful in justifying their lack of retaliation.
“I see them as ineffective in pushing for change in Vienna compared to actual progress in Iran’s nuclear program.”
Rasha al-Aqeedi, an Iraqi researcher on extremism and ideology, said: “The recent attacks are unlikely to yield concessions given their modest impact on US personnel and facilities.”
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby blamed a combination of attacks on Washington’s continued presence in Iraq and hostility to the anniversary of Soleimani’s death.
Whether rocket fire improves Iran’s hands are open to controversy. However, even Iran aims to be able to bomb itself into a better bargaining position, which serves as an impetus to the country’s negotiators, who have long criticized the complacency of US policy. The virtues of “strategic patience” are touted.
As the latest round of talks resumed, the US special envoy for Iran was in Saudi Arabia this week to speak with senior officials. Gulf countries have maintained a skeptical stance on Iran, despite launching a series of regional discussions at the intelligence level last year.
The central concern for Saudi is that Iran has refused to use the Vienna talks to discuss its ballistic missile program or its interventions in a region marred by decades of war and insurgency – much of it Iranian-led. Huh.
“If America doesn’t keep a tough hand, the region will sink further,” a senior Iraqi official said, adding, “This is not a time for weak hearts.”
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