Tunis: Tunisians will vote on Monday on a constitution that would give more powers to President Kais Saied, a key moment in their plans to transform the political system.
The referendum takes place a year after Saeed dismissed the government and suspended parliament.
His opponents have called for a boycott, but while observers have predicted that most Tunisians will turn down the vote, some doubt the charter will pass.
“This referendum has the largest anonymous turnout and will be more or less the same,” said analyst Joseph Cherif.
He added that those who vote yes will do so either because they like the president or because they hate those who rule Tunisia.
The text aims to replace the mixed presidential-parliamentary system enshrined in the 2014 constitution, which saw Tunisia as the only democracy to emerge from the 2011 Arab uprising.
The leader of Sayyid’s “new republic” would have ultimate executive power and would appoint a government without requiring a vote of confidence in parliament.
The president would also lead the armed forces and appoint judges, who would be banned from striking.
Syed’s rivals, including the Ennadha party, which has dominated Tunisian politics since 2011, accused him of dragging the country towards autocracy.
The process even leading up to the referendum has been widely criticized.
“People don’t know what they’re voting on, or why,” Cherif said.
Political analyst Hamadi Radisi said that, unlike in 2014, there was little debate involving all stakeholders on the text “hastily written in just a few weeks”.
Saeed, who has ruled by decree since last year and seized control of the judiciary and electoral board, held an online public consultation to guide a committee in drafting a new constitution.
But legal expert Sadiq Belaid, who led that process, rejected Saeed’s draft, saying it was “completely different” from the one presented by his committee and warned that it could set up “an authoritarian regime”. Is.
Syed released the slightly revised document two weeks before the vote, but even under the new draft, it would be nearly impossible to remove the president from office.
Radisse said that the country will not become like China or Egypt, but could be like Turkey or Russia.
Researcher Isabel Werenfels from the German think tank SWP warned that Tunisia is “moving towards a closed system.”
“If you look at the ongoing dismantling of institutions to oversee freedom, democracy and new rules, it seems that the net is tightening,” she said.
The campaign by the registered people to publicly express a position on the Constitution has been lukewarm.
Only seven organizations or people registered for the “No” campaign, compared to 144 for the “Yes”.
Tunisian flag billboards have appeared in Tunis urging a “yes” vote, carrying a sentence from an open letter published by Saeed, “so that the state does not falter and the goals of the revolution are achieved.”
While recent elections have seen low participation, Saeed himself, a former legal scholar who is seen as incorruptible and removed from the widely distrusted political elite, received a landslide 2019 turnout of 58 percent. But was selected.
Today, Tunisians are dealing with an economic crisis exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and “very few people are interested in politics,” Cherif said.
Sayeed will urgently need to find solutions for an economy plagued by high inflation, youth unemployment of up to 40 percent and poverty facing a third of the population.
The country is in talks with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout package, but experts have warned that the lender’s demand for liberalization reforms could spark social unrest.
Meanwhile, Tunisia’s widely praised, if flawed, fears for democracy are growing.
Freedom House and The Economist had already reclassified Tunisia from “free” to “partly free”, Cherif said.
“The fact that people can express themselves freely or vote ‘no’ without going to jail shows that we are not in a traditional dictatorship,” he said.
But, he added, “this constitution could create an authoritarian regime similar to the one Tunisia experienced before 2011.”