Russia’s second wave fleeing Putin’s rule

For months now, Vladimir has been preparing paperwork to move to France and receive his cases.

A visa application process that was once relatively easy is now riddled with complexity, but the 37-year-old is confident it will be worthwhile to move his family and employees out of Russia.

“On the one hand, it’s comfortable to live in the country where you were born. But on the other, it’s about the safety of your family,” Vladimir told CNBC via video call from his office in Moscow.

For Vladimir, the decision to leave the country he has called home for the rest of his life “wasn’t made in a day.” Under President Vladimir Putin’s rule, what he has called an “erosion of politics and freedom” in Russia over the years. But the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine was the last straw.

“I think, in a year or two, everything will be so bad,” he said of his country.

The Russian embassy in London and Russia’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Not everyone had such flexibility. When Moscow invaded Ukraine on 24 February, with millions of ukrainians For some Russians who were forced to flee their homes, life became unstable overnight.

The “first wave” of artists, journalists and others who openly opposed Putin’s regime felt they had to leave the country immediately or risk political persecution for violating the Kremlin’s rule. Crack down on public discontent.

“Many people got notices saying they were traitors,” said Jean Batalova, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.

But as the war breaks out, more and more Russians are deciding to pack up and leave.

“The way migration works is that once the flow starts more people start figuring out how to do things – get a flat, apply for asylum, find a job or a business. start over — that prompts more people to leave. It becomes a self-sustaining cycle,” Batalova said.

There is no concrete data on the number of Russians who left the country since the start of the war. However, a Russian economist 200,000 by mid-March.

According to Batalova, that figure is likely to be much higher now, as thousands of Russians have relocated to Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Israel, the Baltic states and beyond.

“If you look at the different destinations people have gone to, these numbers are true,” she said. And that’s not even counting Russia’s large expatriate diaspora, many of whom are in Southeast Asia, who have chosen not to return home after the invasion. Batalova put the figure at around 100,000.

In the technical sector alone, there were an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 professionals left in the first month of the war, with 70,000 to 100,000 expected to follow soon thereafter. Russian IT Industry Trade Group.

Some start-up founders, such as Vladimir, who runs a software service for restaurants, have decided to move their businesses and employees overseas, choosing countries with access to the capital, such as France, the UK, Spain and Cyprus. Vladimir is taking his wife and school-age child as well as his team of four and their families to Paris.

They follow the more mobile independent Russia technical workers who have already immigrated to countries with fewer visas, including Indonesia, Thailand and Turkey.

Then, there is a third group of technical workers in large Russian IT companies who are giving up more responsibility than they like.

Mikhail Mizhinsky, founder of Relocode, a company that helps move tech businesses, said these people faced a particularly difficult situation.

Many have received ultimatums from foreign customers who stop doing business with russia, For them, it’s a toss-up between lower costs in Bulgaria, Russian influence in Serbia, and tax advantages in Armenia, according to Mizynski.

“Most of them don’t necessarily want to leave Russia, where their home is,” he said. “But, on the other hand, they have their customers who buy their IT outsourced products and services that demanded them to leave. Many people received letters from customers who said that they would terminate their contracts if they did not leave Russia. Will give.”

And it’s not just professionals seeking the stability of overseas markets like Dubai. Having remained politically neutral amid international sanctions, the emirate has become a destination of choice for even Russia’s wealthy emirates, with many shifting their wealth to their luxuries. property market,

Indeed, about 15,000 millionaires are expected to leave Russia this year. June 1 report From Henley & Partners, a London-based citizenship-by-investment firm, with Dubai ranking as the top destination for the super rich.

The ongoing second exodus comes amid reports that some of Russia’s earlier migrants have returned homeDue to difficulties in family and business relationships as well as the resulting travel restrictions and banking restrictions.

However, Batalova said she expects such returns to be short-lived.

“My bet would be that emigration from Russia will continue, and when people go back it will be to sell property, houses and then leave,” she said.

But questions remain over the welcome of some Russian migrants to their host country, she said.

“In this conflict, Russia is seen as the aggressor, and this attitude is passed on to the migrants. Even if they [Russian migrants] are against the system, public sentiment can be transferred to the new arrivals,” Batalova said.

In fact, there is a very real fear in some host countries that an influx of Russian immigrants could make them the target of a future Russian invasion. Moscow has said that part of the rationale for its so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine was the “liberation” of the Donbass, a region in eastern Ukraine that is home to a significant number of ethnic Russians.

According to Batalova, countries such as Georgia, Armenia and the Baltic states – all of which have suffered at the hands of Russian aggression in the past, and have current concerns over their national security – are likely to be particularly concerned.

“They don’t want Russia to come along later and try to protect the Russians in those host countries as they did with the expatriate in Ukraine,” she said.

Nevertheless, Vladimir is adamant. She looks forward to a fresh start in her family’s search for a new home outside Russia.

“With regard to negativity, I’m sure it’s not 100% true for all people. In any country, and with any passport, people can understand each other,” he said.