LONDON: According to US researchers, more than 18 million people worldwide could die from COVID-19 – three times the official toll.
A study from the University of Washington in the US examined 191 countries and territories to determine what researchers say is the true global death toll.
Their reports come nearly two years after the World Health Organization declared a pandemic.
Of the 18 million deaths, some were caused by viruses, while others were linked to infections or the result of other pre-existing medical conditions, such as heart or lung disease.
These figures combine to produce additional deaths – the death toll as a result of the virus compared to “normal” years.
Published in the medical journal The Lancet, the Washington study found that the global rate of excess deaths was 120 per 100,000 people, although this figure varied greatly across countries.
This means that the true number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021 is approximately 18.2 million.
The highest rates were in low-income countries in Latin America, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. These include Bolivia, Bulgaria, Eswatini, North Macedonia and Lesotho.
But deaths were also significantly higher in some high-income countries, such as Italy and parts of the US.
The countries with the lowest death rates were Iceland, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand and Taiwan.
Lead author of the study, Dr Haidong Wang from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said: “Understanding the actual death toll from epidemics is critical to making effective public health decisions.”
He said: “Studies from several countries, including Sweden and the Netherlands, suggest that COVID-19 was the direct cause of most deaths, but we currently do not have enough evidence for most locations. Further research may help to find out. It will help how many deaths were directly caused by COVID-19 and how many deaths were as an indirect result of the pandemic.”
Researchers predict the additional mortality associated with the pandemic will decrease, thanks to vaccines and new treatments, but warn that the pandemic is not over and dangerous new forms may still emerge.