A man prepares to place his ballot in a drop box in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., Jan 11.
photo:
Joe Redl / Getty Images
Not only are the democratic mid-term prospects poor because of inflation, a slowing economy, rampant crime, the southern border crisis and culture conflict. The party also has to contend with President Biden’s shoddy approval numbers, a Republican general ballot advantage, and a growing sense that Mr Biden is weak, incompetent and too old.
Then there are voter-registration trends in battlefield states. Take Florida. In 2016, Democrats held a registration lead of 330,428 over Republicans, but Donald Trump still won, as did Sen. Marco Rubio. Democratic gains fell to 257,175 in 2018 and 97,215 in 2020. Today, there are 175,911 more Republicans than Democrats—the first time in Florida’s history that the GOP has taken the lead in registration.
Consider two other battleground states where incumbent Democratic senators may face challenges. In Arizona in 2016, the GOP registration lead was 148,291. It went up to 136,587 in 2018 and 130,454 in 2020. This year, however, the Republican margin has dropped to 144,780. In Nevada, the GOP surpassed Democrats in 2016 by 88,818 registrations. Republicans cut that deficit to 74,923 in 2018, but it climbed back to 86,723 in 2020. Since then, the GOP has narrowed the voter gap to 51,351, the smallest election year gap since 2004, the last time Nevada voted Republican for president.
There is good news for the GOP in two states where the party is defending open seats. Mr Trump led Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016 and Sen. Pat Tommy won re-election by 86,690, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans by 916,274. Democratic gains have since grown to 840,443 in 2018 to 685,818 in 2020 and 550,147 today. This gives Senate candidate Mehmet Oz a better starting position than any Keystone State Republican since 2004.
In North Carolina, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 645,435 in 2016, yet GOP Sen. Richard Burr won re-election by 267,211 votes and Trump prevailed by 173,315. Democratic registration gains narrowed to 576,791 in 2018, 391,414 in 2020 (as Mr Trump outpaced the state by 74,483) and 283,392 today. This gives Republican Representative Ted Budd the upper hand in the race to replace Mr. Burr.
There is a less definite still suggestive pattern in battlefield primary voting with no partisan registration. In Georgia, 530,598 more voters participated in the 2016 GOP primary than in the Democratic primary. In 2018, the GOP’s profit dropped to 52,352. Democratic primary voters outnumber Republicans by 139,377 in 2020. But this year Republicans took advantage of 447,031. In Ohio, 747,482 more voters participated in the GOP primary than in the Democratic one. The Republican lead fell to 146,149 in 2018, then flipped to a Democratic gain of 180,837 in 2020, before returning to a 570,937 GOP margin this year, as Republican turnout more than doubled that of Democrats.
While the GOP benefits from better registrations and primary voting numbers, independent voters are likely to be a major factor in deciding which of these states. Registered independents make up 27% of voters in Florida, 33% in Nevada, 34% in Arizona, and 35% in North Carolina, where they outnumber both Democrats and Republicans.
It’s important for Republicans to remember that the messages that help them win primaries don’t necessarily attract independent voters to general elections, especially if a candidate has said things that are cringe- or fringe-worthy. Georgia Senate candidate Herschelle Walker is a case in point.
To that end, it’s helpful that Trump is moving his battleground-state rallies out of the way now so that GOP candidates can make him a lesser presence this fall. Republicans’ victory may depend on their being in the background as the election nears. Independents have a real problem with Democrats. According to a June 22 Quinnipiac poll, only 26% of them approve of Biden’s handling of the economy. The same survey found that independents view inflation as a serious issue. 59 percent of them consider rising prices to be “a crisis” and 39% think it is “a problem but not a crisis.” Only 2% think it’s “not a problem.” But the dislike of Mr. Biden’s performance unites independents with the GOP, with Mr. Trump pushing away a significant number of them. Forty-three percent told Quinnipiac that the former president “committed a crime” in trying to “change the outcome” of the 2020 election, while 48% said he did not.
What battlefield-state Republicans will be their central message to swing voters: the economy and inflation or the unsupported claim that the 2020 election was stolen? It’s easy to see the right answer, but it will be hard to make it a reality.
Mr. Rowe helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is the author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
Wonder Land: The responsibility for the public failure of this government lies with the Democratic Party, not just Joe Biden. Images: Bloomberg News/Getty Images Overall: Mark Kelly
opinion | Voter registration shows Democrats’ distress
A man prepares to place his ballot in a drop box in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., Jan 11.
photo:
Joe Redl / Getty Images
Not only are the democratic mid-term prospects poor because of inflation, a slowing economy, rampant crime, the southern border crisis and culture conflict. The party also has to contend with President Biden’s shoddy approval numbers, a Republican general ballot advantage, and a growing sense that Mr Biden is weak, incompetent and too old.
Then there are voter-registration trends in battlefield states. Take Florida. In 2016, Democrats held a registration lead of 330,428 over Republicans, but Donald Trump still won, as did Sen. Marco Rubio. Democratic gains fell to 257,175 in 2018 and 97,215 in 2020. Today, there are 175,911 more Republicans than Democrats—the first time in Florida’s history that the GOP has taken the lead in registration.
Consider two other battleground states where incumbent Democratic senators may face challenges. In Arizona in 2016, the GOP registration lead was 148,291. It went up to 136,587 in 2018 and 130,454 in 2020. This year, however, the Republican margin has dropped to 144,780. In Nevada, the GOP surpassed Democrats in 2016 by 88,818 registrations. Republicans cut that deficit to 74,923 in 2018, but it climbed back to 86,723 in 2020. Since then, the GOP has narrowed the voter gap to 51,351, the smallest election year gap since 2004, the last time Nevada voted Republican for president.
There is good news for the GOP in two states where the party is defending open seats. Mr Trump led Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016 and Sen. Pat Tommy won re-election by 86,690, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans by 916,274. Democratic gains have since grown to 840,443 in 2018 to 685,818 in 2020 and 550,147 today. This gives Senate candidate Mehmet Oz a better starting position than any Keystone State Republican since 2004.
In North Carolina, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 645,435 in 2016, yet GOP Sen. Richard Burr won re-election by 267,211 votes and Trump prevailed by 173,315. Democratic registration gains narrowed to 576,791 in 2018, 391,414 in 2020 (as Mr Trump outpaced the state by 74,483) and 283,392 today. This gives Republican Representative Ted Budd the upper hand in the race to replace Mr. Burr.
There is a less definite still suggestive pattern in battlefield primary voting with no partisan registration. In Georgia, 530,598 more voters participated in the 2016 GOP primary than in the Democratic primary. In 2018, the GOP’s profit dropped to 52,352. Democratic primary voters outnumber Republicans by 139,377 in 2020. But this year Republicans took advantage of 447,031. In Ohio, 747,482 more voters participated in the GOP primary than in the Democratic one. The Republican lead fell to 146,149 in 2018, then flipped to a Democratic gain of 180,837 in 2020, before returning to a 570,937 GOP margin this year, as Republican turnout more than doubled that of Democrats.
While the GOP benefits from better registrations and primary voting numbers, independent voters are likely to be a major factor in deciding which of these states. Registered independents make up 27% of voters in Florida, 33% in Nevada, 34% in Arizona, and 35% in North Carolina, where they outnumber both Democrats and Republicans.
It’s important for Republicans to remember that the messages that help them win primaries don’t necessarily attract independent voters to general elections, especially if a candidate has said things that are cringe- or fringe-worthy. Georgia Senate candidate Herschelle Walker is a case in point.
To that end, it’s helpful that Trump is moving his battleground-state rallies out of the way now so that GOP candidates can make him a lesser presence this fall. Republicans’ victory may depend on their being in the background as the election nears. Independents have a real problem with Democrats. According to a June 22 Quinnipiac poll, only 26% of them approve of Biden’s handling of the economy. The same survey found that independents view inflation as a serious issue. 59 percent of them consider rising prices to be “a crisis” and 39% think it is “a problem but not a crisis.” Only 2% think it’s “not a problem.” But the dislike of Mr. Biden’s performance unites independents with the GOP, with Mr. Trump pushing away a significant number of them. Forty-three percent told Quinnipiac that the former president “committed a crime” in trying to “change the outcome” of the 2020 election, while 48% said he did not.
What battlefield-state Republicans will be their central message to swing voters: the economy and inflation or the unsupported claim that the 2020 election was stolen? It’s easy to see the right answer, but it will be hard to make it a reality.
Mr. Rowe helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is the author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
Wonder Land: The responsibility for the public failure of this government lies with the Democratic Party, not just Joe Biden. Images: Bloomberg News/Getty Images Overall: Mark Kelly
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Appeared in the print edition, July 14, 2022.