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Two years ago, Moscow was eyeing the US-German standoff Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline As a litmus test of transatlantic power.
Russia had invested heavily in a 750-mile undersea pipeline linking it to Germany and wanted to increase global sales and reap economic benefits in Europe and beyond. power hungry heavy industry, Germany, a major consumer, was on board from the get-go. Washington was not.
The United States did not want new, higher-capacity subsea supplies to replace older overland lines crossing Ukraine, providing significant revenue to the increasingly westward-leaning leadership in Kyiv.
Russia argued that if Washington blocked Nord Stream 2, which it eventually did, it would show that European power no longer flowed through Berlin, but in fact through the White House.
Fast-forward two years, and reading that transatlantic dynamic post-Angela Merkel and especially post-Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failed invasion of Ukraine has become one of the most pressing political questions troubling the Kremlin.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal, in his words, to “be pushed” to go it alone in sending tanks to Ukraine — instead standing his ground and seeking to involve US President Joe Biden in the venture, drew Putin’s wrath. Risking – showed the transatlantic power dynamic has changed.
Europe has been slow to respond to the deep fissures in US politics and the uncertainty that another Trumpian-style presidency could wreak havoc on its allies. Decades of seemingly intransigent dependence, if not absolute confidence in America, have been replaced by stubborn European pragmatism – and Germany leads the way.
Former Chancellor Merkel was Europe’s moral guide. Scholz has found unexpected metal in his tough, often stop/go/wait traffic-light governing coalition and won thunderous applause in Germany’s Bundestag on Wednesday as he clocked a rare moment of steely leadership.
At their summit in March last year, NATO leaders agreed to equip, arm and train Ukraine to NATO standards. It would not be a member, but the message to Moscow was clear: In the years to come, Ukraine would look and fight like NATO.
Ukraine’s metamorphosis from legacy Soviet military to NATO clone isn’t just about the mechanics or even the diplomacy of acquiring tanks, combat vehicles, air defense and artillery, it’s also about bringing the nearly billion people of NATO member states to their It’s about bringing politicians together. Scholz said this in parliament on Wednesday.
“Trust us,” they said, “we will not put you in danger.” He described how his government had already handled Russian aggression and how the cold winter and fears of economic collapse had not been realised. “The way the government dealt with the crisis,” he said, “we are in a much better position.”
At each step of his carefully prepared speech, the applause spoke as loudly as his words. In short, Scholz got it right for Germany, bringing with him a population that was generally against war and projecting his own power, and deeply divided over whether to kill the Russians and How much aid should they provide to Ukraine, potentially angering the Kremlin?
But if in Europe Scholz has wrestled with the few vestiges of US influence in the Ukraine war, in Moscow he does not believe his newfound power has changed much.
Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, says that in Moscow, “most people believe that Biden called the shots.”
In fact, rather than Germany’s greater leverage, he says, “the US leadership looks stronger than ever.”
Still, Russia’s diplomats are venting their animosity toward the West in the public domain on both sides of the Atlantic.
Russia’s ambassador to Germany said Berlin’s move to send tanks was “extremely dangerous” and accused Scholz of “refuses to accept its recognition.” [Germany’s] Historical accountability to our people for the horrific crimes of Nazism. Meanwhile, his counterpart in Washington accused the White House of “blatant provocations” and Biden of intent on a “strategic defeat” of Russia.
Former President of Russia and Deputy Chairman of the National Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has said that Russia will never allow itself to be defeated and will use nuclear weapons if threatened.
Oddly, closer to the Kremlin, the statements are less bellicose, indicating that Putin may be cooling off on nuclear escalation.
Responding to Biden and Scholz’s decision on the tanks, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it “adds tension to the continent, but it cannot prevent Russia from reaching our goals.”
Mixed messages have some Muscovites CNN spoke to after Biden and Scholz announced the confusion over the tanks. Some said Russia would win regardless, and lumped together the US and Germany as the losers, but a significant proportion were worried about the war, dismayed by the heavy death toll and disappointed that Putin ignored their concerns.
How much Scholz is aware of Putin’s waning popularity or whether he believes it is relevant at this point is unclear, but his actions now by sending tanks may help loosen Putin’s iron grip on power. Can
By delaying in recognizing the threat from Russia, allowing Germany to rearm, reinvigorate its military, and accelerate arms supplies to Ukraine, the pragmatic Scholz has now signaled that Germany is very much in play – and, indeed, In, wants hands on the controls. He said Germany would “coordinate” the supply of Leopard 2 to Ukraine from allies, a power invested by German law preventing any buyer of the country’s war-fighting hardware from passing it on to a third state.
With Schulz shouldering the diplomatic helm, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could get his regional ambitions of restoring the entirety of Ukraine’s sovereignty, including Crimea, ahead of peace talks with Putin. The German Chancellor has been at the forefront of friendly leaders seeking a quick end to the war and the restoration of economic stability in Europe.
There could be longer debates about the next military steps for Ukraine and possibly signals to Zelensky that arms supplies would be in the form of a German lease, and would be less unilateral, led by Washington.
This shift in power dynamics may not change the way the war is fought, but could affect the contours of the final deal and shape a lasting peace when it comes.