If Russia’s widely condemned incursion into Ukraine is not short-lived, African economists sound the alarm over a possible and potentially catastrophic reduction in trade volume between the continent and its warring partners.
But these gains are quickly on the verge of diminishing, analysts worry, signaling a serious disruption to Africa’s food conditions if Russia’s military operation in Ukraine continues.
‘Three months away from hunger’
Vandile Sihlobo, chief economist of South Africa’s Agricultural Trade Board, says if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, parts of Africa could starve in three months.
“In the short term, between now and three months, the conflict will primarily affect the food supply from a pricing standpoint,” Sihlobo told CNN.
“As net importers of products such as wheat, which affect bread and cereals, sunflower oil and corn, African countries are largely exposed to some of the supplies coming from Russia and Ukraine. If the war continues longer If it lasts, there will be challenges. Three months – because countries usually keep stock of supplies for three to five months.”
“Food prices are already very high now. If the war breaks out, there will be millions of Africans who will be in hunger. We are already expecting millions of people to go hungry in areas already affected by drought, hence the ongoing conflict. And that will get worse,” he said.
Africa’s largest economies such as Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria and Kenya are major importers of Russia’s agricultural exports, putting them at risk of further rise in food prices if trade is disrupted.
Sihlobo says even targeted sanctions on Russia could complicate Africa’s exports.
“Africa exports fruits and vegetables to Russia and Ukraine. Seven percent of South Erica’s citrus goes to Russia, 14 percent of South Africa’s apples and pears go to Russia. Egypt and Tunisia also export fruits and vegetables to Russia. The challenge with all these countries is that with all the sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and European countries, it affects the financial services sector… even if the logistics are not immediately affected, it is all about exporting. would disrupt the payment system for the country for Russia,” he told CNN.
take sides in conflict
“There will be significant pressure from the perspective of multilateral relations as African countries may be forced to take a position on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and this may adversely or positively affect relations between Africa and Russia. ,” says Hadebe.
For the Russian academic, Irina Filatova, taking sides will not benefit Africa.
“It would not be in Africa’s interest to take sides. I think Africa can try to remain neutral,” said Filatova, an expert on Russian and African history.
Beyond agriculture, Russia is expanding its influence in militancy-stricken African states by providing alternative military solutions offered by its Western counterparts, often determined by human rights considerations.
However, Russia denies ties with private military contractors such as the Wagner Group, which has been accused of abuse.
Hedebe told CNN that the arms trade “is one of the key features defining the trade relationship between Russia and Africa.”
“Russia in particular is the largest exporter of arms to sub-Saharan Africa.”
According to Filatova, Russia may be more likely to double down on its interests in Africa after the Ukraine war.
“Russia will be much more interested in maintaining relations with African countries than it has ever been … it has already begun to develop these relations, but in the event of global isolation by the Western world, it will certainly Africa,” he told CNN.