Explained: Why is there a potential for a trade war between Northern Ireland and Britain?

Several media reports said there were concerns that the UK could invoke Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, popularly known as the Irish backstop. Irish backstops determine the nature of post-Brexit trade and if the UK implements it, it would further strain relations with the EU as well as with Ireland.

Hopefully the UK will trigger the article right after COP26, which is happening in Glasgow right now. Some reports also suggest that the UK may take action before COP26.

Back in July, the UK government said that the threshold for triggering the article had been reached. The BBC notes that while the protocol prevents a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, it has created a new trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which has been accepted by the European Union, allowing for many businesses. Problems are arising.

While the EU has proposed measures to ease checks and controls, the UK wants protocols to be reformed.

First, what are Irish backstops?

The Irish Backstop, formally known as the Northern Ireland Protocol, is an agreement that was reached between the UK and the European Union that there would be no new checks on goods crossing the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Before Brexit, people and goods could move freely between the two regions as both were part of the EU Single Market and Customs Union, but border conditions changed after Brexit. Wales, Scotland, UK England and Northern Ireland. Of these, Northern Ireland is the only country that still remains within the EU’s single market system for goods.

Having a backstop means that there will be no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It also means that goods cross from country to country and across the EU without customs checks, tariffs and additional paperwork.

The backstops were opposed by the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (DUP) as they saw them as weakening Northern Ireland’s position within the UK.

What is Article 16?

Article 16 of the Protocol, titled “Safeguards”, states that if the entry into force of this Agreement causes “serious economic, social or environmental difficulties which are liable to continuance or diversion of trade,” the UK shall unilaterally take appropriate safeguards. can take. Measure. But Britain will have to prove that it is facing these difficulties if it wants to trigger it.

Inevitably, implementing this article will stop the protocol and create a space for further conversations about how business should be conducted.

The Irish Times reported that there are fears that triggering Article 16 could prompt the EU to retaliate, eventually leading to the suspension of the free trade agreement between the EU and the UK.

What was the situation on the Irish border before Brexit?

Prior to Brexit, the border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK was the only significant land border between the UK and the rest of the European Union, and negotiations for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU recognized the Irish border issue as one. The three most important issues any return agreement will need to be resolved satisfactorily.

The governments of both Ireland and the UK expressed a desire to avoid a “hard” border, a border marked by checkpoints and supervised crossing posts.

Since around 2005, the presence of physical infrastructure on the Irish border has been practically non-existent, with a welcome message on an uninterrupted road and only a sign with a change from mph to kph or vice versa.

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The existence of such a limit was made possible by processes beginning with the Good Friday Agreement, which was signed on Friday, April 10, 1998. The agreement ended The Troubles – a decades-long conflict in Northern Ireland between the Federalists, who wanted Northern Ireland to remain within the UK, and the Republicans, who wanted Northern Ireland to leave the UK and unite with the Republic of Ireland.

When the question of Brexit arose, the Northern Ireland Protocol, also known as the Irish Backstop, emerged.

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