The war in Ukraine – now in its tenth month and showing no signs of abating – has rattled the global economy and fueled an energy crisis in Europe. And after nearly a year of trans-Atlantic unity, European leaders are beginning to express frustration over their economic relationship with the United States. Macron is expected to press Biden on several areas of disagreement over trade ties and the future of the war.
It is a time tested alliance but has proved to be strong yet. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated ties between the United States and Europe — as well as NATO — especially after a tough period of isolationist and transactional foreign policy under former President Donald Trump. after the period. On a more personal level, Biden and Macron, despite their 36-year age difference, have grown closer, illustrated by the US president choosing France for his first state visit.
However, with the arrival of winter, the cold may start.
Due to its proximity to the war zone, Europe has borne the brunt of the economic impact and the continent is on the brink of a significant recession. Several European leaders, including Macron, have begun to push against an expansion of the war that could increase the death toll and the economic cost.
The explosion of a stray air-defense missile in Poland two weeks ago served as an unsettling reminder of just how close war is to the NATO region. Hours after the blast, Biden and Macron joined other leaders on the sidelines of the G20 in Bali, Indonesia, to reaffirm their commitment to the alliance.
Macron has indicated he wants the war to end diplomatically, not on the battlefield. In the wake of Russia’s invasion, Macron has taken it upon himself to try to negotiate with Vladimir Putin to stop the conflict and suggested he could play a role in trying to bring the Russian leader to the bargaining table. But there is no sign the Kremlin is ready.
“The G-7 is more unified at this point since the G-20 was formed in 2008,” said Ian Bremer, chairman of global risk assessment firm Eurasia Group. “But we are by no means moving toward a negotiated solution.” ” , “Strengthening alliances does not mean we are any closer to ending war, and war is causing enormous damage.”
Biden has repeatedly declared that peace talks will begin only when Kyiv signals it is ready for them, and Washington has helped downplay Europe’s defense capabilities. This week, the US approved $53 million to help Ukraine acquire electricity grid equipment to protect it against Russian attacks that have plunged the country into darkness.
The biggest diplomatic spat between Washington and Paris came over last year’s agreement for Australia to purchase nuclear-powered submarines from the US and the United Kingdom. The snub cost France 56 billion euros and forced Biden to try and smooth over relations.
At least a part of Biden and Macron’s meeting will also focus on reducing friction around trade issues. Tax incentives for clean energy included in the Inflation Reduction Act are a growing concern for European leaders, who are concerned about sectors of their economies relocating operations to the US.
“It could really hinder cooperation and burden-sharing on the war effort,” said Konstanz Stelgenmüller, a Europe expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “And it’s all the more troubling because this is an administration that’s done a really good job with Europe.”
Macron has been one of the most outspoken critics of the IRA, accusing the US of pursuing a protectionist policy. On Wednesday, he sat down for a lunch with members of Congress, company executives and government officials in Washington and warned that such help for American firms “could eliminate a lot of jobs.”
“It is very offensive to our business people,” Macron said. “You’ll probably fix your problem, but you’ll make mine worse.”
Paris and Brussels, the headquarters of the European Union, want Washington to tweak the IRA so that European companies, like manufacturers in Canada and Mexico, can benefit from US aid. A particular flashpoint has become the IRA credit for manufacturing electric vehicles. This fall, US and EU officials set up a joint task force to discuss the new law, while the White House insisted the legislation would also help US allies.
“This is not a zero-sum game,” John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator for the National Security Council, told a recent press briefing. “I mean, clean energy – it’s a tide that lifts all boats, the more we can transition to a clean energy economy around the world. And there’s a lot of opportunity in that for everyone.
Officials on both sides of the Atlantic, although acknowledging policy differences, maintain a warm relationship between the two leaders. Macron briefly tried to reconcile with Trump, but the relationship became strained. He and Biden have spent time together at a series of summits, with the French president seen patting his American counterpart’s back while walking together at the G-7 in Germany in June.
However, energy has become the biggest crisis across Europe, which has become heavily dependent on Russian fuel. After the war began, supplies decreased and prices increased, fueling inflation that was already on the rise as economies emerged from the COVID pandemic. The US has stepped in to help transform Russia into one of the continent’s largest natural-gas hubs. But its shipments of liquefied natural gas came with very high prices.
In the past, French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire accused the United States of increasing the space it sells to Europe, warning against “American economic dominance”. And an Elysee official said Macron would ask the Biden administration to find ways to narrow the gap between the price of gas sold in the US and the final price of natural liquefied gas exported to Europe.
“There is some pretense. Macron wants to have his own voice and not just follow in the footsteps of the big man [Joe Biden],” said Nicole Bacharan of the Paris-based National Foundation for Political Science. “It is an eternal dynamic. The old power that has become a medium in relation to the US France needs its own voice to be expressed and to exist.
Clea Caulcutt and Giorgio Leali in Paris contributed to this report.