According to JP Morgan analyst David Karnovsky, slow and steady will win the race at the box office this year. He is predicting a 15% year-over-year increase in North American movie ticket sales to $8.49 billion in 2023. The double-digit gain is driven by two factors. The first is related to the sad state of the box office last year. He said gross receipts of $7.4 billion in 2022 were up 65% from 2021, but still 36% below the three-year pre-pandemic average. In other words, it would be easier to compare. The second reason is far more positive: the film calendar is better balanced since the start of the Covid pandemic. In 2022, consumers wanted to go to the movies, but there were big gaps during the summer and fall, when new movies weren’t in theaters. And certain types of movies, such as family-friendly fare or original films aimed at adults, were in very short supply. This is an important factor in Karnovsky’s prognosis. “We see at least 30 films with more than ~$100 million in revenue versus 18 that will reach that mark in 2022,” he wrote in a research note last week. Although the total number of films in wide release remains below pre-pandemic levels, the gap could narrow further as the year progresses. Karnovsky dismissed the comments from Cinemark, which said it expects the number of films in wide release to increase from 20 to 25 this year, as smaller and mid-scale studios return to theaters this year. The pace of film releases will be a bigger factor in the success of the industry than the economy. In past economic cycles, going to the movies was a recession-resistant pastime. Despite buzz about how the calendar shapes up, “Avatar: The Way of Water” will see few new movies in theaters during the first quarter, but the second quarter picks up in a big way, starting with a reboot. Is. The Dungeons & Dragons franchise. Karnovsky expects the second quarter to show some of the biggest ticket sales of the year. “The Super Mario Bros Movie” will open over the Easter weekend. Then, in May, come some of the biggest movies of the year: “Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3,” “Fast X” and then Disney’s “The Little Mermaid” for Memorial Day weekend. June continues with other promising titles, including the first Transformers movie since 2019 and DC Comic’s “The Flash.” Pixar will also be returning to theaters with “Elemental.” With titles like “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” “The Marvels” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” according to the analyst, the third quarter should see a substantial increase compared to 2022. He said the gain in ticket sales would be modest in the fourth quarter. However, if additional films are released, their box office predictions may be reversed here. There is some room in the calendar for potential add-ons. For now, the end of the year will bring several notable titles backed by established franchises, including Marvel’s “Kraven the Hunter,” “The Exorcist” and “Hunger Games – Ballard of Songbirds and Snakes.” What this means for Studio Karnovsky and other analysts is that media companies are diverting the attention they once lavished on their streaming services. “Elementals,” for example, is coming to theaters. Since the pandemic, Disney had saved its Pixar titles, such as “Luca” and “Turning Red,” for Disney+. Instead, the goal is to develop strategies that maximize the value of the films. DIS 3M Mountain Disney shares get a boost from a proxy fight, but box office gains may be ahead. “After a period of experimentation, the industry appears to consolidate around a 30–45 day special window, or in some instances (such as Universal), a 17–31 day special window, depending on opening weekend performance,” Karnovsky wrote. “There are exceptions to this, such as Top Gun: Maverick or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which had longer exclusivity periods.” While this may be more lucrative for studios than cinema operators, for the time being they are expected to turn a profit for theater chains. For example, poorly performing films may be pulled out of theaters more quickly, he said. Even streaming companies like Amazon are planning to release more movies in theatres. And there’s been a lot of talk about how much money Netflix could be spending by not releasing movies like the Rian Johnson-directed “The Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” in theaters for a long time. Nevertheless, JP Morgan expects the industry to take two more years to fully recover from Covid. The pandemic not only disrupted the film’s release, but it also played havoc with the production schedule. The heat is still being seen. With all this in mind, he expects Disney to post the largest percentage gain in global theatrical revenue of the companies it covers. Paramount and NBC Universal are both expected to see year-over-year declines as they post strong 2022 performances. Paramount’s “Top Gun: Maverick” topped the box office charts last year, while NBC Universal had new movies in Jurassic Park and Minions. Franchisee. And this year will test how much of a “chicken and egg” situation it is for the kinds of content theaters have struggled with since the pandemic hit. The industry will test whether audiences come back for animated features or original films that are not part of blockbuster franchises, or fit into particular genres such as sci-fi or horror. Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.