How Iran has become the common denominator for Biden’s first Middle East visit
JEDDAH/BOGOTA: When US President Joe Biden arrives in Riyadh this week for talks with Arab leaders, the issue of world oil prices will certainly figure prominently on the agenda amid the war in Ukraine and a Western boycott of Russian hydrocarbons. But the same would be the case with Iran.
Indeed, among all Middle East allies who are visiting Biden or attending the GCC+3 meeting, there is a shared desire to stop Iran’s malicious external activities and prevent the regime from acquiring nuclear weapons. .
White House officials believe Iran may now have enough fissile material and perhaps even the technology needed to weaponise and deliver nuclear payloads, giving the regime a powerful bargaining hand in talks .
Despite a concerted effort by the Biden administration to persuade Iran to comply with the 2015 nuclear deal – abandoned by his predecessor Donald Trump in May 2018 – indirect talks between the two sides have repeatedly hit a roadblock.
Still, Biden refused to lift the sanctions on the Islamic Republic until it returned to compliance with the agreement.
In an opinion piece for the Washington Post ahead of his visit to Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia this week, Biden pointed to the “rapid acceleration” of Iran’s nuclear program after Trump withdrew from the deal.
“After my predecessor withdrew from the working nuclear deal, Iran passed a law to accelerate its nuclear program. Then, when the last administration called on the United Nations Security Council to condemn Iran for this action. demanded, America finds itself isolated and alone,” Biden wrote on Saturday.
“We reconnected with allies and partners in Europe and around the world, to overcome our isolation; Now it is Iran that is isolated until it returns to the nuclear deal that my predecessor had abandoned, with no plans to replace it.
Biden has refused to lift sanctions on the Islamic Republic unless it is back in compliance with the agreement. (Reuters)
“Last month, more than 30 countries joined us to condemn Iran’s lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency on its past nuclear activities. My administration will continue to increase diplomatic and economic pressure as long as Iran Not ready to comply with the 2015 nuclear deal, as I am prepared to do.
Meanwhile, Iran has accused the Biden administration of incompatibility on the nuclear issue.
Mr. State Department spokesman Nasser Kanani told AFP on Tuesday that Joe Biden’s emphasis on pursuing a policy of economic and diplomatic pressure against Iran is contrary to the continued expression of America’s desire to revive the 2015 accord.
The US government, “despite its slogans and claims of returning to agreement … follows the same approach (of the previous administration) with the continuation of sanctions and economic pressure,” he said.
Analysts agree that the Biden administration has intensified action against Iran in recent weeks, but disputes whether there has been a fundamental change in policy.
“The US outlook on Iran is changing strategically, but not strategically,” Jason Brodsky, policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, told Arab News.
“Over the past few weeks, Washington has been increasing its enforcement of US sanctions. It’s a change, as the Biden administration previously imposed sanctions that, according to officials, would not be lifted under the US withdrawal to the JCPOA.
“But in recent weeks, the United States has been designating entities and individuals under Executive Order 13846 whose sanctions will be lifted if the JCPOA is saved. So this is a subtle signal to the Iranian leadership that the Biden administration is under increasing pressure. Used to be.
“However, according to the president’s latest op-ed, that pressure is being directed at compliance with the JCPOA, not the longer, stronger deal. So the problem remains and it is not something that Gulf Arab leaders can expect.” And Israel would like to hear.
The Biden administration has been engaged in talks aimed at bringing the US back to the nuclear deal since April 2021, including lifting sanctions on Iran and ensuring Tehran full compliance with its commitments.
However, nuclear talks held in the Austrian capital Vienna have been stalled since March, with the US and Iran remaining unresolved.
In late June, Qatar hosted indirect talks between the US and Iran to get the Vienna process back on track, but those discussions broke down after two days with no success.
Critics of the deal – which offers Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbing its nuclear program – have repeatedly said it will protect Iran from expanding its ballistic missile program, shielding its navy from acts of state-sponsored piracy. It is not enough to stop, nor does it support militia proxies across the region.
Tehran has long financed and equipped armed groups in neighboring Iraq. Militia have regularly attacked Western military personnel, diplomatic missions and civilian infrastructure in the country, seeking to destroy their political institutions.
“I think the JCPOA is essentially dead, but not buried yet,” Jason Brodsky, policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, told Arab News. (AP)
In Syria, Iran has sought to strengthen Bashar Assad’s regime, sending advanced military equipment and mercenaries from theaters of conflict across the region. Israeli defense officials fear that Tehran wants to use Syria as a launchpad from which to attack Israel.
Elsewhere in the region, Iran has long pushed Hezbollah into Lebanon, exacerbating the country’s political paralysis and social breakdown. And in Yemen, Iranian support for the Houthi militia has only served to prolong the war and the suffering of the Yemeni people.
These proxies and the areas in which they operate have been used to launch cross-border missile and drone attacks on civilian as well as oil infrastructure in both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Militia have also targeted commercial shipping in the area’s waterways.
Therefore, Iran’s deadly activities threaten not only regional stability, but also freedom of navigation and the wider global economy.
As such, critics of the JCPOA argue that the issue is much larger than the nuclear file alone and that any agreement with Tehran should also prevent these activities.
Political analyst and international relations scholar Dr. Hamdan al-Shehri told Arab News: “For nearly a decade, the JCPOA presented by the Obama and Biden administrations has remained unchanged.”
“They are still at a standstill as President Biden’s administration refuses to do anything to work toward finalizing a deal that could stifle Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which in turn will have implications for the region.” Became dangerous through his proxy.”
Iran has long financed and equipped armed groups in neighboring Iraq. (AFP)
Given Tehran’s activities and its rapid progress toward obtaining a nuclear weapon, many observers wonder whether the JCPOA can be saved at all.
“I think the JCPOA is essentially dead, but not buried yet,” Brodsky said. “It can still be revived, although the chances are very small.
“The Iranian leadership is not under the pressure it had before 2013 to revive the agreement, with multilateral sanctions and the more credible threat of military force to destroy Iran’s entire nuclear infrastructure at the time.
“That is why it has felt no urgency, capitalizing on high oil prices, the laxity of US enforcement of sanctions and a reckoning that it does not matter whether the US and the E3 (France, Germany and the UK) ever negotiate.” The US and its European allies must change this perception.
This is why Biden’s Middle East visit is seen as such a valuable opportunity to change course and offer more aggressive resistance, whether it is a new Middle East air force to counter Iran militarily. Be it in the form of the Defense Coalition (MEAD), or at the very least a more concerted effort to deprive Iran of the money it needs to fuel its proxy across the region.
“It is extremely important for the President to demonstrate on this visit that Iran is not just a nuclear file and is ready to pursue an aggressive deterrence strategy aimed at countering its deadly non-nuclear behavior. who wants to hear from him,” Brodsky said.
“Initiatives like MEAD are necessary, but not sufficient. Intervention, kinetic action aimed at repelling Iranian aggression, and stopping the flow of funds into Iran’s proxy and partner networks are of utmost importance. But the JCPOA does resources for these activities. This is a fundamental contradiction in American policy that the President must address.”
