The Union home minister Amit Shah’s visit to Mumbai has put the BJP on battle mode with an eye on Mission Mumbai 150 plus. The political message which came across at the end of his two days tour was — Fight to finish Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena in Mumbai.
Why is Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation poll so significant for BJP? Why is Amit Shah driving the BMC polls?
A closer look at these two aspects shows that the BJPs bitterness against Uddhav Thackeray is rooted in political turmoil it landed itself post 2019 assembly polls.
The BJP and Shiv Sena coalition government completed its full five years term between 2014 to 2019. While the saffron allies retained their prepoll pact for both Lok Sabha and state assembly polls in 2019, but when it came to government formation, Shiv Sena put a condition of 50:50 power share. Thackeray alleged BJP had promised them equal power share including chief minister post by rotation for 2.5 years. The Sena had then cited the promise was made by Shah to Thackeray during one to one closed door meeting held at Matoshree before Lok Sabha elections. A charge BJP staunchly denied as baseless.
Irked by Thackeray’s hard bargain Central leadership of BJP refused to compromise on CM post. Resulting in break up between BJP and Shiv Sena. With BJPs isolation, process of alternative government with three parties coalition — Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress under Maha Vikas Aghadi was complete.
Badly wounded by what it terms “betrayal” BJP decided it will not take this insult and humiliation lying down. After 2.5 years of MVA rule, BJP managed to come back to power following a split within Shiv Sena — which many claim was engineered by BJP. The banner of revolt was lead by chief Minister Eknath Shinde ( then Urban development minister). Of the total 55 Shiv Sena MLA, 40 have joined Shinde faction. Similarly, out of total 18 MPs 12 have shifted to Shinde faction. Thus, leaving Thackeray with just 15 MLAs and 6 MPs.
The BJP has given the biggest ever body blow to Thackeray. But it still believes the political revenge remains unaccomplished as long as Thackeray retains BMC. The Thackeray Sena’s identity with BMC enables them to control country’s economic capital Mumbai. It empowers Thackeray politically.
Therefore, Shah during his address to party leaders, corporators, elected members on Monday said, ” Get back to field work with renewed zeal for bigger battle BMC.” Asking party to adopt adopt aggressive strategy to wrest BMV from three decades rule is nothing unusual. But what was surprising was Shah’s direct attack against Uddhav Thackeray. He minced no words when he said, ” If Shiv Sena is reduced to smaller party Uddhav Thackeray is responsible for this…” He was blunt in stating, ” Uddhav Thackeray has betrayed BJP. In politics one can tolerate anything but not betrayal.”
With Shah’s visit BJP has clearly drawn the roadmap. It has identified its enemy. It unveiled the poll strategy for BMC.
The party has a daunting task to win 150 seats out of 227 in BMC polls. Till now no political party has ever won 150 seats. In 2017, BMC polls Shiv Sena got 84 seats and BJP 82 seats, Congress 22 seats, NCP 9 seats.
The internal BJP survey shows BJP can cross 100 seats. As apart from 82 seats where it has sitting corporators, there are 30 to 35 seats where party lost by narrow margin 500 to 2000 votes. The poll strategists believe if they make a little effort they can swing thesec30 to 35 seats to their fold. Secondly, with Shinde Sena in alliance BJP is politically empowered. Thus, additional wresting additional 40 to 45 seats may seem difficult but not impossible. Several sitting corporstors who were once loyal to Thackeray are likely to join BJP-Shinde Sena, insiders revealed.
To ensure everything goes as per their script, BJP chose Ashish Shelar to lead BJP Mumbai. The Bandra Boy — Shelar ( MLA) and former minister has served as Mumbai BJP president twice in past. It was under his leadership party got a quantum leap from 33 seats ( 2012) to 82 seats ( 2017). He is BJPs tried and tested leader known to take Thackeray’s head-on. Apart from this deputy chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis along with CM Eknath Shinde will play important role in drawing strategies and monitoring its execution.
Although Shah’s Mumbai visit was marked by his participation in Ganesh festival as he visited Lalbaugcha Raja, Sarvajanik Ganeshotsav Mandal (Bandra West), he sharply conveyed larger political goal cannot be compromised. His mantra to karyakarta — don’t rest till you show Thackeray his place and win BMC polls continues to ring louder than ever in Mumbai.