Vladimir Putin is not mad, just ‘radically rational,’ says former French president

PARIS – Vladimir Putin is a “fundamentally rational” leader who is betting that Western countries will tire of supporting Ukraine and agree to an end to the conflict that is more favorable to Russia, former French President Francois Hollande told Politico.

Hollande, who served from 2012 to 2017, has direct experience with Putin. He led talks with the Russian leader along with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel under the so-called Normandy Format After Moscow split Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and backed pro-Russia separatists in the Donbass region.

But those efforts at talks proved futile, exposing Putin as a leader who understands only strength and casting doubt on all subsequent efforts at talks — including a controversial solo effort led by current French President Emmanuel Macron , Hollande said in an interview at his Paris office.

“he [Putin] A fundamentally rational person, or a rationally radical person, as you like,” the former French leader said, when asked whether Putin wanted to widen the conflict beyond Ukraine. “His own logic And within that framework, he is prepared to use force. only he can understand [power] That’s the dynamic that we’ve been able to set up against him.

Ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, Hollande said Putin would “try to consolidate his gains to stabilize the conflict, hoping public opinion will tire and European People will be scared of rising up the order.” To bring the possibility of conversation to that level.

But unlike when he was in power and Paris and Berlin held talks with Putin, this time the mediation job is likely to fall to Turkey or China – “which would be reassuring to no one,” Hollande said.

Macron, who served as Holland’s economy minister before leaving his government and going on to win the presidency in 2017, has tried his hand at diplomacy with Russia, leading several face-offs with Putin before and after the invasion of Ukraine. Face-to-face conversation. ,

But the outreach produced no clear results, drawing criticism from Ukraine and Eastern Europeans, who also objected to Macron Saying that Russia would need “security guarantees” after the war ended.

Hollande stopped short of criticizing his successor over Putin’s accessibility. It makes sense to talk with Putin before the invasion “to deprive him of any argument or debate,” he said. But after a “brief period of uncertainty” following the invasion, “the question [about the utility of dialogue] Unfortunately it was settled.

Disappointment, or the lack thereof, from the leadership of France and Germany during the Ukraine war has fueled arguments that power in Europe is shifting eastward into the hands of countries such as Poland, which have been the most outspoken in their support of Ukraine.

But Hollande was not convinced, arguing that northern and eastern countries were trying their luck with the United States at their own peril. “These countries, essentially the Baltics, the Scandinavians, are essentially tied to the United States. They see American security as a shield.”

“To date,” he continued, US President Joe Biden “has shown exemplary solidarity and played his role in the transatlantic alliance to the fullest. But tomorrow, with a different US president and a more isolationist Congress, or at least spending Being less eager to do so, will the United States have the same attitude?

“We must assure our partners that the European Union is about principles and political values. We must not deviate from them, but partnership can also provide valuable and concrete security guarantees,” Hollande said.

cast a shadow

Hollande was one of France’s most unpopular presidents while in office, with an approval rating in the low single digits. But since leaving the Elysee he has enjoyed something of a resurgence and is now a country second most popular politician behind former prime minister Edouard Philippe, five places ahead of Macron – in keeping with the adage that the French like their leaders when they are safely out of office.

His time in office was full of crises. In addition to failed diplomacy on Ukraine, Hollande led France’s response to a series of terrorist attacks, presided over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis with Merkel, and faced massive street protests against labor reforms.

On that last point, Macron is now feeling some of the heat that Hollande felt during the last months of his presidency. More than one million French citizens have joined March against the reform of the planned pension system, And there is a plan of attack ahead. Hollande criticized the reform plans, which would raise the retirement age to 64, as poorly planned.

“Did the President choose the right time? With a succession of crises and high inflation, the French want reassurance. Has the government proposed the right reforms? I don’t think so either – it’s seen as unfair and cruel,” Hollande said. “But now that a parliamentary process has been set in motion, the executive will have to find a compromise or go all the way and rage. The risk of raising the bar has to be taken.”

A notable difference between him and Macron is the quality of Franco-German relations. While Hollande and Merkel took pains to display a semblance of political friendship The two sides have been clearly at odds under Macron – to a carefully worded warning from the former commander-in-chief.

“In these moments when everything is being redefined, the Franco-German couple is the indispensable core that ensures the cohesion of the European Union. But it needs to redefine the contribution of both sides and set new goals – including for European defence,” Hollande said.

“It is not about seeing each other more often, or speaking more clearly, but about taking into account the new situation because if that work is not done, and if that political ground is not secured, and if misunderstandings If it persists, it will only be a bilateral disagreement between France and Germany that we will have, but a stalled European Union,” he said, adding that he hoped that a recent Franco-German summit ” Misunderstandings have been cleared.”

The socialist leader also had some choice words for Macron, just as he is trying to rally Europeans around a strong response to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides Major Subsidies for the US Green Industry, Several EU countries have come out against plans to create a “Buy European Act” and raise new money to support EU industries.

During a joint press conference on Monday, Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte agreed to disagree EU response.

“On the IRA, France is finding that its allies are, for the most part, liberal governments. When you point to direct aid to the Dutch or the Scandinavian [for companies]They hear something that not only goes against the spirit, but also against the letter of the treaties,” Hollande said.

Another issue rocking European politics lately Katargate corruption caseIn which current and former MEPs as well as lobbyists are accused of taking cash in exchange for influencing the work of the European Parliament in favor of Qatar and Morocco.

Hollande recalled that his own administration was hit by a scandal when his budget minister was found to have lied about Swiss bank accounts he had failed to disclose to tax authorities. This scandal led to the establishment of Holland High right to transparency of public life An independent authority that holds public officials to account and has the power to refer any misdeeds to the prosecutor.

Hollande said now would be a good time for the EU to follow that example and set up an independent ethics body of its own.

“I think it is a good institution that will have a role in Brussels,” he said. “Some countries will be fully in favor because honesty and transparency are part of their core values. Others, such as Poland and Hungary, will see a challenge to their sovereignty.