Around the world, television screens are filled with images of Extraordinary takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban. This time the Taliban has carried out it even faster than in 1996. A human tragedy has engulfed the country.
Thousands of Afghan civilians are fleeing trying to create distance between themselves and the Taliban. With neighboring countries still against accepting refugees from Afghanistan via land routes, air travel from Kabul is the only option.
The horrific images of the stampede at Kabul airport, including people running alongside US Air Force planes and stowaways desperate for their deaths, have shaken the global conscience.
The Afghan government and its defense forces have completely collapsed. Prominent leaders have fled the country. Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar are probably relying on their private networks to stay afloat.
America has spent a lot of treasury, and shed a lot of blood over the past two decades. The original trigger of US military intervention in Afghanistan was the 9/11 attacks. The aim then was to eliminate al Qaeda sanctuaries held by the Taliban. Like the other goal of eliminating Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan in 2011, that too was quickly achieved.
After this, America was caught in a vortex in which its mission oscillated between terrorism and counter-terrorism. down too
For four consecutive presidents, US policy towards Afghanistan has been in flux. For a decade, the American political organization has been questioning the military presence in Afghanistan. America has long been looking for a respectable exit. Meanwhile, trillions of dollars poured into development and reconstruction programs in Afghanistan had given rise to vested interests in the form of private security contractors, service providers and NGOs.
Today the rise of China is the main geo-strategic threat to the US. In 2001, the US took the ball off the ball to divert its attention to the global war on terror. Starting in Afghanistan, it passed through Iraq, Libya and Syria, with mixed results.
The US now considers China as its main strategic rival. The muscle-flexing of the latter in the East and South China Seas calls for a renewed effort by the US to defend its stakes. China’s recent pressure on Taiwan has also raised alarm bells. If the US is to effectively deal with China in the Indo-Pacific to protect its interests, the US cannot tolerate the continued burden of a military presence in Afghanistan.
China had cleverly invited Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar early on in an effort to gain assurances that Afghan territory could be used to host Uighur separatists.
Welcoming the latest developments, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman expressed its desire to “continue to develop friendly and cooperative relations with Afghanistan”. Engagement with the Taliban could pay dividends. At the same time, China cannot be oblivious that the US, by taking the Afghan albatross off its neck, will have better options and more resources to deal with China.
It should come as no surprise if the Taliban government in Afghanistan is to be friendly towards China and Pakistan. in the new system
There is a possibility of opening the door for economic investment from China in Kabul. At the geopolitical level, the BRI may well get a boost, given China’s interests, which may extend from Pakistan to Iran in the region.
In 1996, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan quickly recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, established by Taliban 1.0. This time too, Pakistan has shown readiness to welcome the change of guard in Kabul. Prime minister Imran KhanUS remarks about Afghans freeing themselves from “the shackles of slavery” may upset the US.
At the multilateral level, the UN Security Council press statement issued on 16 August by India’s Permanent Representative, in his capacity as its rotational President, “calls for an immediate cessation of all hostilities and establishment through inclusive dialogue of a new government”. It is united, inclusive and representative”.
In recognition of the hard-earned gains over the past two decades, it also underscores the need for continued participation of women in governance. The statement also expressed concerns about violations of human rights and international humanitarian law.
The Taliban juggler is attempting to project a more liberal image of himself to a global audience that has vivid memories of his harsh regime in the 1990s. The Taliban sent a signal to this effect, declaring that there would be no retaliation. However, in the months to come, the world will need more than just words as evidence. The Taliban cannot afford to isolate the global community through a repetition of its regressive policies, particularly on matters relating to safe havens for terrorists and the rights of women and minorities.
It is one thing to take a country by force but another thing to rule it effectively. Through a recent campaign, the Taliban revealed a propensity for violence. They now have to show their ability to govern. They have to show restraint if they want to be accepted as a member of the global community and retain the talent that has been nurtured in recent years.
Maintaining vastly better communication networks, energy infrastructure, hospitals and health facilities, and running many community development projects efficiently would otherwise pose major challenges.
Clearly, the change in Afghanistan has security implications for India and the region at large. The spread of any chaos and instability in Afghanistan beyond its borders could give terrorism a shot in the arm.
If he does not review his malicious practices, which support terror as an instrument of state policy, he may also sing Pakistan. Whenever there is an opportunity, India should give priority to the welfare of the Afghan people. Currently, around 2,500 Afghan students are enrolled in educational and vocational institutions across India. They would undoubtedly like to extend their scholarship.
There are hundreds of fresh students in Afghanistan waiting to come to India who have already secured admission. Wonder if they will be able to leave Afghanistan under the current circumstances.
As a close neighbour, India has a deep stake in ensuring a stable, secure and developed Afghanistan. As the rotational chair of the UN Security Council for August, India has an opportunity to engage important stakeholders on the way forward. In addition, India’s presence in the UN Security Council by the end of 2022 will provide a platform to explore options with greater flexibility.
The author, a former Ambassador, is currently the Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, New Delhi. thoughts are personal
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