Afghanistan more in 2021 Ukraine Standing out for his deep shock in 2022 and the strategic importance of President Biden’s failure in those two settings.
The two are flashpoints in what is increasingly coming together as President Biden’s ‘America is Last’ foreign policy.
In national security, perhaps more than any other area, the impact of a decision by a US president can be felt immediately and change the nature of a policy challenge, if not wider geopolitical dynamics, as in Afghanistan. And after Ukraine could bring crisis.
In such settings, the president’s own judgment and instincts are tolerated, and the quality of his advisers matters most.
Biden and his advisers have failed us in Afghanistan and appear to be moving in the same direction in Ukraine, as Putin’s Russia continues to ramp up military forces for a possible invasion.
Unfortunately, the current administration’s approach couldn’t be more different from when President Trump was in the White House. Our America First plan was not meant to be ‘America alone’, but it did mean that we would adopt a world view that was good for America first, and then how our actions affected the rest of the world.
President Trump had the perfect background to marshal our actions, with none of the baggage of a Washington politician and the necessary experience dealing with the risks, gains and losses that his business background provides.
Biden and his advisers have failed us in Afghanistan and seem to be moving in the same direction in Ukraine. (above) Biden on Friday, January 28, 2022 at Andrews Air Force Base, MD. The President is accompanied by 89th Airlift Wing Vice Commander Colonel William MacDonald.
When it comes to Ukraine, there is no clear path to success, and certainly not through the direct use of American power.
He saw that other nations took advantage of America’s decline and that American families were pushing the bill.
President Trump, and those of us who helped him fulfill his foreign policy agenda, determined that there should be no commitment to American lives or tax dollars without a clearly articulated benefit to the American people.
It stems from a deep appreciation of how extraordinary America and Americans are and, therefore, how important it is to protect and invest in what we hold dear.
What we are seeing and experiencing today is just the opposite.
With a constant awareness of the dangers of strategic redundancy, America’s foreign policy pursued by the Trump administration elevates the nation state as the leading actor in geopolitics and all around the top priority of protecting our nation’s citizens. Focused on policy decisions.
Where necessary and excessive force was considered necessary, disciplined power was used. There should have been a clear path to victory when the struggle required it.
When it comes to Ukraine, there is no clear path to success, and certainly not through the direct use of American power.
Ukraine is primarily a European issue to be resolved.
But the Europeans are failing.
Economically, they have become dependent on Russia for 35% of their natural gas.
Perhaps the most emblematic data point of Europe’s failure is the fact that Germany did not allow the United Kingdom to use its airspace for deadly military aid to Ukraine.
The US, on the other hand, has sent more than $2.5 billion in arms and aid to Ukraine since 2014, which actually began under President Trump.
President Trump, and those of us who helped him fulfill his foreign policy agenda, determined that there should be no commitment to American lives or tax dollars without a clearly articulated benefit to the American people. (above) Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg speaks during a press briefing in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House on September 22, 2020.
Over the past 8 years, there has been no solution to the Donbass issue in Ukraine.
Putin is now deciding whether the Russian military will settle the issue.
For Russia, the issue of Ukraine is deeper and more personal. For Russia, it’s about their security.
Due to the lack of buffers of former Warsaw Pact states, Russia believes that any further expansion of NATO to the east poses a threat to its security.
Putin intends to halt the expansion, which becomes his red line with Ukraine, NATO, and eventually the United States. We are seeing Putin’s clear understanding of what Ukraine means to him politically and strategically and his unwavering commitment to seize an opening to advance his agenda.
Unlike President Biden, Putin is thinking strategically and has two immediate goals.
To your advantage, resolve the Ukraine standoff and dissolve the NATO/European alliance with the United States.
He could achieve the first goal unilaterally through an invasion of the country, and the second through the failure of those negotiations to pull off engagement with the United States on Ukraine. We are already seeing a difference in how some European nations see a proposal for Ukraine and how we see it.
The current impasse could have been prevented with some ‘diplomatic trickery’.
Russia should have stated that Ukraine is a sovereign state, but has no intention of becoming part of NATO due to government corruption. We could have persuaded other NATO members to do so to reinforce them.
Ukraine remains in the top third of corrupt governments in the world. In Europe, only Russia is more corrupt.
Instead of getting bogged down in a non-NATO European issue, we should have continued with intellectual and strategic moves, recognizing China as a major emergent threat to the US. (above) Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen during a show ahead of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China in Beijing on Monday, June 28, 2021
In its current state, Ukraine is not eligible for entry. Each country in NATO must agree to add a new member to the defensive alliance, and the United States requires two-thirds of the US Senate to agree as well. This issue could have been taken off the table in the short term.
Instead of getting bogged down in a non-NATO European issue, we should have continued with intellectual and strategic moves, recognizing China as a major emergent threat to the US.
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of Putin’s efforts is how effectively he drags Biden into Russia’s priorities and away from the top national security issue that matters most to Americans and tops Biden’s mind. Should be: China’s growing and growing threat.
In early February, China will host the 2022 Winter Olympics – likely when Russia’s plans with Ukraine materialize.
China will undoubtedly use this international platform to fuel its ambitions, and American institutions, whether corporate boardrooms, Hollywood, universities, or professional sports, will be Beijing’s bidders.
There is perhaps no more vivid image of China’s threat to the US and when it does, there is no more contrast than when Biden and his team’s focus is entirely on the European issue of Ukraine.
Lieutenant General (retd) Keith Kellogg is the co-chair of the American Security Center at the America First Policy Institute. He served as National Security Advisor to President Trump and National Security Advisor to Vice President Pence. He is the author of War by Other Means: A General in the Trump White House (Regnery Publishing, 2021).
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