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When Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, traveled to Western Europe last week to drum up support for his country’s fight against Russia, he made a last-minute stop in Paris.
French President Emmanuel Macron was lucky to be approved.
Macron’s attitude toward Ukraine’s war effort has often proved infuriating to allies who wonder if France is hedging its bets by negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin and stating the need for “security guarantees” for Moscow. Why is it applying?
While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has faced severe criticism over the slow pace of his decision to send 2 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Paris’s contribution to the overall war effort both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP is very low. Used to be. Compared to Berlin, according to a ranking Kiel Institute for the World Economy Updated late last year.
Even accounting for Macron’s recent pledge to jointly deliver the Caesar howitzer and a MAMBA air defense system with Italy, France’s overall support effort is likely to remain well below that of the largest allies in 2023. By November, Poland had pledged more than €3 billion in aid, while the United Kingdom has offered more than €7 billion. In contrast, France offered €1.4 billion – placing the country well below Western allies in terms of percentage of GDP.
When Zelensky left Ukraine last week to meet with Western leaders, Paris did not issue a formal invitation – and the meeting with Macron almost did not happen. The French President had originally planned to spend the evening with his wife at the theatre. According to an Elysee official, it was only after aides saw footage of Zelensky’s solemn address at Westminster Hall in London that they sent invitations and arranged a late-evening visit to Paris.
No wonder Zelensky almost missed Paris.
When asked why France has sometimes taken a different path on Ukraine than other Western allies, French officials defend Macron. In an interview with POLITICO, former French President François Hollande said it made sense to talk to Putin before the invasion to “deprive him of any logic or excuse”. A French diplomat said: “It was either that or nothing. He [Macron] Decided to try diplomacy – I don’t think we can blame them for that.
As for France’s sluggish contribution to the war effort, officials argue that as continental Europe’s leading military power, Paris has other security responsibilities, namely protecting the southern part of Europe, and must maintain some capability. He says that there is no point in sending the Leclerc tanks to France as they are no longer in production and cannot be easily replaced.
But the same officials shrug when asked whether France is leading the way on Ukraine.
For Francois Heisberg, senior advisor at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Macron’s zig-zagging approach to the Ukraine war effort represents a missed opportunity not only in terms of hard power – but in terms of Macron’s larger ambition, His 2017 speech at the Sorbonne, written to establish himself as a European leader in the lineage of former President François Mitterrand, former Prime Minister Michel Rocard or former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.
“2022 was a year of missed opportunities,” Heisberg said. Macron “spent 15 days telling everyone Russia needed security guarantees, as if Russia hadn’t grown up enough to request them itself.”
Macron “could still make up for lost time, but the precondition for this is to be extremely clear on Ukraine, and from there to gain legitimacy among Central European states.”
France’s ‘open road’
Ironically, in geopolitical terms, Paris hardly had a better chance to lead Europe.
Britain has left the European Union, removing a major liberal opposition to French statehood. Germany’s Olaf Scholz ties into coalition politics and the impact of Berlin’s failed bet on Russian energy. In contrast, France enjoyed stable government and the benefits of relative energy independence, thanks to its early embrace of nuclear power. As far as Paris’ position in Europe was concerned, “the road was open,” Heisberg said.
Macron has taken advantage of this opportunity in many ways. Paris has been by far the most vocal supporter of a strong EU response to US President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, a bumper package of subsidies for green business. When he traveled to Washington in November, the French president looked very much like a European leader delivering grievances to a trade rival – and bringing home consequences for the entire EU.
Yet France’s pursuit of economic leadership within the EU has not translated into a broader bid to become Europe’s security guarantor and consensus builder. When asked by an Eastern European diplomat who was currently “leading” the EU, “No one has replaced Angela Merkel at the Council table.” Hollande and several diplomats lamented the deterioration of Franco-German relations under Macron, saying it undermined any hope for the bloc’s cohesion and a more integrated approach to defence.
As the war in Ukraine nears its first anniversary, Macron has turned to more outright support for Kiev. In his New Year’s address to the French, he promised Ukrainians to “help you until victory” – a rhetorical departure from “Russia cannot win the war”. He left a door open for Ukrainian pilots to train on Western fighters and made a significant contribution to the MAMBA missile defense system. “Toward victory, toward peace, toward Europe,” he tweeted during Zelensky’s visit to Paris.
Yet France remains one of the most skeptical countries in the EU when it comes to admitting Ukraine to the bloc, and its overall contribution is still small compared to other countries.
Macron still has three years in office, plenty of time to double down on his newfound interest in Ukrainian “victory”.
But with street protests over planned pension reforms now ending his presidency at home, a golden opportunity is fading.