Muhammad Suleiman Al-Ankari
The world is passing through a complex phase with enormous pressure on the global economy, and perhaps the biggest challenge is the inflation file, which has gone somewhat unchecked. The US and European Union have recorded inflation rates above 8%, figures that have not been there for four decades, and the solutions to this file are much more complicated than that, as it is a mix between their internal economic policies that aligns with the two. Years ago after the outbreak of the corona virus, through zero interest, and was taken amidst mountains of money. As markets were printed and pumped, the prices of stocks and commodities increased, in addition as a result of global disruptions in supply chains that occurred in 2020 to limit the spread of the corona pandemic, however, the Russian-Ukrainian war caused problems. Because both countries had a great impact on world food exports, as well as energy and minerals. But did the Western countries impose sanctions on Russia amounting to about 6000 fines and what measures did Moscow take about the disruption in its oil and gas exports and wheat supplies? and grain, especially from Ukraine, and its oil production declined by 9 percent, regardless of technical reasons, and it is one of the largest producers and exporters of oil globally, giving the impression that inflation is in tuberculosis. has changed. He fought in this Russian war with the West, which supports Ukraine, to fight covertly for it.
In fact, the inflation file can be read from a political, not economic, angle. Both warring parties, whether Moscow directly enters Ukraine, or the West, which is fighting it indirectly, are actually raising inflation rates globally, and they will continue as long as the West wants to lower oil prices. , until then, betting on each party’s ability to be patient. And gas so that the treatment of inflation on the energy cost side is nothing more than a temporary benefit to voters, especially in the US, which awaits a midterm election to Congress after five months. To enter into security negotiations that met Moscow’s conditions to stop the war, if it believed that it would indeed use inflationary exports as a weapon against the West if the Republicans win such seats. If that gives them a majority in Congress, they would cripple the Joe Biden-led Democratic government’s ability to pass any resolutions that require the approval of the House and Senate.
Similarly, the prospect of Republicans returning to the White House becomes very high after almost two years, while the governments of EU countries face a split in their position towards Moscow, especially in gas and oil supplies. in relation to, and their incompetence is to be faced. Easily achieve energy security, which will have a significant impact on the cohesion of the countries of the Union towards various issues in the future and threaten to weaken their position and even exit the countries. Britain may or may not be the last country to leave it alone.
On the other hand, the West, led by Washington, inflicts costs on Moscow and reduces it after hundreds of American and European companies withdrew from the Russian market, which were not easily compensated with the services or products they provided. Will go indicate that Moscow’s production of various goods may be greatly affected by these sanctions, resulting in Russia being burdened with the potential for rising unemployment, with the potential for rising unemployment, to block the supply of spare parts or Western technology used in various industries. The state budget, along with provisions for increased Social Security, dwindling financial resources, and the withholding of hundreds of billions of dollars in Western-owned Russian banks, could raise borrowing costs for its companies and government. At very high rates, the country is entering a severe and deep inflationary recession. In addition to armed confrontations on the territory of Ukraine, there are cyber, media and economic wars between them, and perhaps inflation has become the most prominent of these weapons which they use to test the patience of each side and to the demands of the other. his approval.
While the indirect impact on both sides will come through the affected countries in the continents of the world, which have nothing to do with the events in Ukraine, and which will go on to gain security for their economies and food security, as each party is concerned with those It will turn to people who support it from two conflicting powers, which will create a new map for alliances and international relations.
Inflation has grown out of the control of the central banks of the major powers, and politics has become the key to its solution or crisis. The danger is that this war will go on for a long time and inflation levels will go into an uncontrollable state if it expands its use as a weapon between these forces and extends its influence to ominous consequences, and no solution can be found. This could put the world in the stagnation box of inflation and with it destroy all initiatives and stimulus measures taken to restore growth. The global economy after the severe recession that hit it at the start of the corona pandemic.