Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. his new book, The Failed State: A Guide to the Breakup of Russia Just published.
We are currently witnessing a looming revolution in global security for which Western policy makers are clearly not prepared – the impending collapse of the Russian Federation.
However, instead of planning for contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia’s de-imperialization, Western officials are stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to post-Cold War status quo, something also offered Moscow security guarantee To keep the country intact.
But Russia is a failed state. It has been unable to transform itself into a nation-state, a civil state, or even a stable imperial state. It is a federation in name only, as the central government pursues a policy of ethnic and linguistic homogeneity and deprives the country’s 83 republics and territories of any power. However, over-centralization has exposed many of the country’s weaknesses, including a contract economy Squeezed by international sanctions, military defeat in Ukraine that exposes the incompetence and corruption of its ruling elite, and disquiet in many regions at their shrinking Budget,
Moscow is finally being exposed as a greedy imperialist center that is eroding its abilities to hold the country together. Yet, most Western leaders still fail to see the benefits of Russia’s disintegration.
The disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s and the breakup of the Russian Federation following the dissolution of the Soviet Union would be the third phase of imperial decline. it’s run by the elite power struggles and the intense rivalry between the central government and unaffected regions, which may occur in some parts of the country civil war and border disputes. However, it would also lead to the emergence of new states and inter-territorial federations, which would control their own resources and would no longer send their people to die for Moscow’s empire.
As Moscow turns inward, its potential for foreign aggression diminishes. And as a slimmer state, under intensified international sanctions and with its resource base in Siberia reduced, its ability to attack neighbors would be severely curtailed. NATO’s eastern front from the Arctic to the Black Sea will become more secure; While Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova would reclaim their occupied territories, and petition for EU and NATO integration without fear of Russia’s response.
Countries in Central Asia will also feel increasingly free, and they will be able to turn to the West for energy, security and economic ties. China would be in a vulnerable position to expand its influence as it could no longer cooperate with Moscow, and new pro-Western states could emerge from within the Russian Federation, increasing stability in many regions of Europe and Eurasia. .
though nuclear weapon A potential threat would remain had Russia’s leaders not commit national suicide by launching them against the West. Instead, they would try to salvage their political future and economic fortunes – as the Soviet elite had done. And even if some emerging states did acquire such weapons, they would have no reason to deploy them while seeking international recognition and economic aid. Instead Russia is likely to pursue the nuclear disarmament of post-Soviet states – like Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan following the demise of the Soviet Union.
The notion that Western leaders only help President Vladimir Putin by talking about Russia’s collapse is misleading. Kremlin claims the West wants destroy Russia regardless of actual policy, and denial from Washington and Brussels only fuels the Kremlin’s machinations.
Instead, a more effective approach would be to clearly specify who the West supports. Openly supporting pluralism, democracy, federalism, civil rights, and the autonomy of its republics and regions can help Russia’s citizens demonstrate that they are not isolated globally. They will also need access to information that Moscow suppresses, especially when it comes to providing security, driving economic development and building peaceful, productive relations with neighbors.
The magnitude of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and beyond propriety While the country’s government leaders and advisers have given in to carnage, Western officials’ hope that Putin can establish beneficial relations after the Kremlin, or democratize the liberal empire, is wishful thinking.
The West made a grave mistake when it assumed that the fall of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism. And as imperial states invariably fall when they are overstepped and when centrifugal pressures are fueled by economic crisis, regional resentment and national resurgence, it must now avoid repeating that mistake – this time the wrong one. By treating the present empire as permanent.