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Nathalie Tosi Iwm is director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Europe’s Future Fellow in Vienna and member of the board of ENI. His new book, “A Green and Global Europe,” is out now with Polity.
During a recent visit to Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen asked a delegation that I was part of the following question: “What has Europe learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?”
Taiwan has learned a lot. But the truth is that Europe has a long way to go.
The frequent comparisons between the Ukraine and Taiwan conflicts are challenging – but the underlying differences also make it scary. Ukraine is an internationally recognized state; Taiwan is not. Furthermore, China boasts of an economy 10 times the size of Russia.
Scarier still are the similarities. Like Russia in Ukraine, the People’s Republic of China makes no secret of its intention to annex Taiwan. It has distorted the One China policy into the One China doctrine – especially through its legislation at the United Nations – and one has only to look at Hong Kong developments since 2019 to get a glimpse of what Beijing has in mind. Is required.
Like Ukraine, Taiwan feels strongly about its liberal democracy, making it a foundational pillar of its national identity, as a counterweight to an increasingly authoritarian China. And like Ukraine, it is ready to turn the page on decades of white terror and fight for the hard-earned freedoms it has won since beginning its democratic journey in 1992.
However, along with China’s political will, it also has military might. Over the years, the country has been progressively upgrading its military capabilities, and by 2027, it could Capacity To successfully invade and control the island.
Interestingly, despite the United States’ intelligence about Russia’s massive build-up on the Ukrainian border and the imminent threat, prior to February 24 many Western countries – including Ukraine – were in denial about the possibility of a Russian invasion. Were staying In Taiwan’s case, however, the opposite is true. especially since the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei Due to repeated violations of the middle line in the Taiwan Strait by China last summer, no one in the West rules out the possibility of war. In fact, by suggesting that war in Taiwan is both imminent and inevitable, the West often exaggerates in the opposite direction.
Against this backdrop, Taiwan has already learned several important lessons. Taipei knows that it must move boldly and quickly to strengthen its defenses if it wants to reverse Beijing’s cost-benefit calculus and prevent an invasion.
Taiwan must revise its military doctrine to embrace asymmetric defense, upgrade its military capabilities, and push the entire society toward absolute defense. It must walk a thin line, raising the stakes in its domestic communications – especially towards its youth – but without creating panic among the masses.
Unlike Ukraine on Poland’s doorstep, Taiwan is fully aware of the fact that it is an island. And this means that before China makes its first move, it should have everything it needs to defend itself – if it were to.
It also has to find the right balance in its quest for international strategic relevance. Taiwan needs to accomplish this by embedding its economy – particularly its semiconductor industry – into global supply chains, while ensuring that key technological capabilities remain rooted in its indigenous industrial ecosystem. In facing the Chinese Goliath, the Taiwanese David knows that his safety depends on being indispensable to the rest of the world.
And while some European countries can and should do more to support Taiwan’s defense – even more so than in the case of Ukraine, where the US does most of the heavy lifting – the direct defense support Europeans can provide to Taiwan is modest. .
Still, there is much more they could have done.
For one, there is the effect of messaging. Europe has finally begun to take China’s threats to Taiwan more seriously, and a recent joint statement by United States President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron clearly mentioned Peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. Messaging like this should become the norm among European leaders.
As Europe grapples with the toxin of Russian and Chinese propaganda, it is also becoming increasingly aware of lessons and best practices that can be shared with Taiwan, which has faced the Chinese challenge for decades. Used to be. Cooperation on misinformation should be increased.
Additionally, while France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Germany have sailed and flown through the South China Sea to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight, these excursions remain few and far between—and usually, they pass through the Taiwan Strait. do not pass through or Not only should these be more regular, but they should also include other member states.
Meanwhile, although the EU has begun discussions with Taiwan on a bilateral investment agreement, it appears that these talks are going nowhere – especially since the bloc suspended Ratification of its Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with China. Whether through a comprehensive investment agreement or through regional agreements, EU economic ties with Taiwan should be fostered and not held hostage to growing ties with China. Hopefully the European Parliament’s trade delegation to Taiwan this week is a step in that direction.
Finally, the EU and its member states can do much more at the UN to actively counter China’s distortion of the One China policy.
Some Europeans may ask themselves why they should go to such pains to support Taiwan, which has angered China. The answer is that they should because Taiwan is not only strategic to Europe—40 percent of Europe’s trade passes through The Straits and the European Union are the largest investors in Taiwan – but, above all, the key lesson from the war in Ukraine is that it is far less costly to act to prevent war than it is to erupt once it erupts.
Taiwan may be farther from Europe than Ukraine, but the consequences of a war in Asia would be devastating for the continent.