Ankara: Sweden’s bid for NATO membership is facing an impasse, according to analysts.
A protest by Swedish-Danish right-wing extremist leader Rasmus Paludan in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm has further strained relations.
After the demonstration, in which Paludan burned a copy of the holy Quran, eyes are now focused on possible steps Ankara could take to expand NATO’s torpedoes in the Nordic countries.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry condemned the Quran burning, describing it as a “despicable act” and criticized the Swedish government’s decision to allow the protest as “completely unacceptable”.
In Sweden, the move is tolerated within the parameters of freedom of expression.
Amid rising diplomatic tensions between the two countries, experts believe Sweden is unlikely to vote in favor of NATO’s entry ahead of crucial domestic elections, both parliamentary and presidential, on May 14.
There is also no guarantee that the next president will have a majority in parliament after the election, which could further complicate ratification and make coalitions more difficult following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Devlet Bahceli, head of the nationalist MHP party, the main ally of the ruling government in Turkey, promised that Sweden’s NATO membership would not be approved by parliament.
Following the protests, Ankara postponed a proposed visit by Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jönsson on 27 January, although the meeting was expected to address Turkey’s objections to Sweden joining the alliance.
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin condemned the demonstration, calling the attack on sacred values ”modern barbarism”.
Kalin tweeted: “Permitting this action despite all our warnings promotes hate crimes and Islamophobia.”
In early January, he also said that Ankara was in no position to approve Sweden’s NATO accession until all of its concerns were met.
As part of the long-running diplomatic tussle, Turkey initially blocked Sweden’s NATO accession in order to make certain political demands to Stockholm, such as the extradition of several individuals sought by Turkish authorities on terrorism charges. extradition.
After decades of military non-alignment, Sweden applied to join NATO in May and took steps to toughen its anti-terror laws in a bid to circumvent Turkey’s veto.
It also exiled two members of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, to Turkey.
Finland and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum with Turkey last year to overcome Ankara’s objections to its membership in NATO.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Christerson recently said that his country, which insists that the courts have the final say on extradition, has already fulfilled its part of the memorandum, but Turkey has further demands. , Sweden can not meet, including the extradition of 130 people.
Under NATO rules, all 30 members must unanimously agree before a new state can join the alliance.
“Behind the scenes, the actual talks were under way well before the New Year. Sweden has made significant progress on all items in the trilateral memorandum signed in June,” Paul Levine, director of Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies, told Arab News.
“Now, however, the political arguments of the campaign season in Turkey, coupled with far-left and far-right groups in Sweden competing to insult the easily disgraced Turkish president, have thrown the process into a tailspin,” he said. Told.
Last week, controversial footage was released by a Kurdish group in Sweden showing an effigy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Stockholm and people calling him a “dictator”.
Ankara has accused Stockholm of harboring people linked to the PKK and its affiliates in northern Syria and Iraq. Sweden has pledged to distance itself from all Kurdish groups considered terrorists by Turkey in a bid to win Ankara’s support for its NATO bid.
Levin said, “I suspect that Stockholm will try to avoid hunkering down and exacerbating the situation while continuing to implement the memorandum.”
“I expect nothing positive on confirmation from Turkey before the election, but if Erdogan wins, it could take even longer,” he said.
Besides Turkey, Hungary still has not ratified the NATO membership applications of Sweden and Finland.
According to Soner Cagupte, director of the Turkey Program at the Washington Institute, the latest demonstration, along with all other similar provocations in recent days, will completely end Sweden’s hopes of joining NATO ahead of the Turkish election.
“Erdogan has already made this accession bid important, while Turkey has legitimate security concerns about Sweden’s wavering attitude towards the PKK and its allies,” he told Arab News.
Cagupte said any concession from Sweden would help Erdogan boost his popularity.
Cagupte also believes that Erdogan has decided to take advantage of Sweden’s accession to NATO allies to buy tacit political support during his campaign season.
“He knows that NATO allies will downplay any criticism of him during this electoral process,” he said.
“Until that moment, he will use this accession bid as a sword of Damocles to keep quiet about his policies during the election campaign,” the director said.
“It takes two to tango. Erdogan, who is running for re-election, has a helping hand from both Sweden’s far right and far left, who are not at all interested in joining NATO,” Cagupte he said.
Last week, another far-right leader, Jimmy Aiksson, this time from the Sweden Democrats, criticized Erdogan, labeling him a “dictator”.
Several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, have already condemned the demonstrations.
“Saudi Arabia calls for spreading the values of dialogue, tolerance and coexistence, and rejects hatred and extremism,” the Saudi foreign ministry said in a statement.
The Gulf Cooperation Council also condemned the protests.
Sweden’s prime minister described the Koran burning incident in Stockholm as “deeply offensive”.
As retaliation, some groups burned the Swedish flag in front of the Swedish Consulate in Istanbul.