LONDON – A Brexit deal may be close, but for Rishi Sunak, the toughest yard still lies.
With a draft deal all but finished now, the UK prime minister faces the near-impossible task that brought down her predecessor, Theresa May, in 2019: convincing the warring Tories to negotiate a settlement agreement on Northern Ireland. Persuading to rally behind.
Despite repeated official denials, people close to EU-UK talks over the long-running Northern Ireland Protocol row say a technical agreement is now sitting on Sunak’s table for consideration. The prime minister will now have to figure out how to sell the agreement to staunch opponents of the protocol, as well as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland, as well as dubious MPs in his own Conservative party.
A person familiar with the discussions said Brussels is waiting for Sunak to scrutinize the governance chapter in the tech deal struck by EU and UK officials, and will decide whether to seal its signature on the agreement. . The regime – mainly in relation to the role of the EU’s top court in protocol arrangements – is likely to prove a sticking point for Brexiters, who are already agitating for a vote on no deal.
Former Tory cabinet minister Theresa Villiers told Times Radio this weekend: “The compromise is something we all have to consider and there are issues with EU law and jurisdiction that have to be dealt with.”
Villiers, a key figure in the 2016 Vote Leave campaign, made it clear that his fellow Brexiters would not allow Sunak to push through his deal without a House of Commons vote.
“It is highly implausible that a change in protocol can be made and implemented by the government without a vote in Parliament,” he said. , I cannot conceive of circumstances where Parliament can be kept out of the question.”
The protocol, agreed as part of the Brexit divorce deal, sees Northern Ireland continue to follow EU customs union and single market rules in an effort to avoid a politically sensitive hard border with the neighboring EU republic. maintains, which remains a member of the European Union. State.
But Northern Ireland’s unionist politicians have long objected to the protocol, with the DUP boycotting power-sharing in the region and seeking to scrap the agreement. Unionists argue that customs and sanitary checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland effectively isolate it from the rest of the UK, and are supported by critics in Sunak’s Conservative Party, who are opposed by European courts in protocol rulings. Displeased with the role played.
Sunak was handed a proposed settlement early last week — but is still “micro-managing” while holding to the line that talks are ongoing, said a second person with knowledge of the situation, even though Only officials believe that offers are received Seven tests of DUP to support a transaction.
“The pieces of the deal are starting to leak out. When is Rishi going to tell the cabinet, ERG and DUP about this? It looks like the deal has fallen into a black hole,” said the second person.
Referring to the upcoming April anniversary of the historic Northern Irish peace deal, he said: “The EU also wants to move on with other things and we don’t have long until the anniversary of the Belfast Agreement to get power-sharing back up and running.” ” Seen as an unofficial deadline by both sides to resolve the dispute.
But an announcement on an agreement could still take weeks, officials from both sides said, and the timetable is expected to be headed by Sunak as he tries to ward off those most likely to oppose a deal. . In London, Sunak’s official spokesman insisted that Britain and the EU were still working out the details. “There is still important work to be done and further talks will take place this week in all areas,” he said.
‘Positive atmosphere’
Speaking at a press conference on Monday, European Commission vice-president and Brexit point-man Maros Čefčovič said that “progress is being made, but difficulties remain,” and warned that the final package would “not only work in practice”. should do” but rather “is acceptable to all the many stakeholders we have around the table” – which would seem to be a reference to the DUP.
Šefčovič declined to comment on media reports that the EU is ready to accept that goods shipped from Great Britain to Northern Ireland – and intended to stay there – must go through Ireland into the EU single market. Lighter scrutiny should be done as compared to goods with This would amount to a “green” and “red” lane model on Northern Irish ports proposed by the UK, and – RTE reported Will not only reduce customs formalities, but also reduce animal health and food safety procedures and checks.
If the EU is now prepared to reduce such checks “to near zero”, it would be a “significant change” in the commission’s position, said Raoul Ruparel, May’s former Brexit adviser – who has been replaced by his party. was brought down by Repeated opposition to the Brexit deal for Northern Ireland.
Šefčovič suggested that the British proposal of “Green Lanes” was similar to the EU’s own proposed solution of “Express Lanes” – but insisted that the EU could only show flexibility on customs paperwork if the UK gave the Commission a “K”. Provides very solid information about”. trade flows.” The two sides recently spoke of progress on allowing access to the EU british database For tracking goods.
However, any customs success will need to come with a significant change on governance if it is to withstand the backlash from the protocol’s staunchest critics.
DUP MP Ian Paisley told the BBC’s Nolan Show: “It’s either protocol or power-sharing.” “We can’t be both.” On the role of the Court of Justice of the European Union, he warned: “We cannot have an issue where Northern Ireland is answerable and accountable on which they have no say.”
Brexiteer Tory MP Villiers said “there could be some agreement at a technical level on customs procedures.” “But … really the changes to customs procedures don’t address the biggest issues with the protocol.”
For Rishi Sunak – for Theresa May – the path is anything but clear.