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LONDON – Boris Johnson was supposed to have ended the Tories’ 30-year EU curse. But just three months into his own term as UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak fears another Tory schism is about to emerge over Europe.
Johnson won a resounding election victory in 2019 on a decisive pledge to “get Brexit done” – given a decades-long civil war within his party over Britain’s EU membership that had toppled successive leaders.
Still with Johnson (mostly) is out of the picture now and Sunak’s party is yet to come struggling hard In the elections, the new PM weak grip On their unruly allies it means the Tories’ Eurosceptic wing is growing in confidence, in what will be a year of crucial post-Brexit decisions.
Sunak knows he will need to retain the support of those same eurosceptic Tory MPs – as well as other unruly backbench tribes – as he tries to resolve the long-running Northern Ireland protocol dispute with Brussels. It will not be an easy task.
Paul Goodman, a former Tory MP and now editor of the influential Conservative Home website, said “the protocol is the biggest single, visible item that could threaten the PM’s position.”
Both the UK and EU agree the protocol is not working in its current form, and appear to be closing in on a deal to resolve many outstanding issues after a long dispute.
Despite leaving the EU along with the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland still follows Brussels’ customs union and single market rules to avoid a politically sensitive hard border with the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland’s unionist politicians hate the setup, arguing that it drives a wedge between conservative critics in the region and the rest of Britain in Westminster, meanwhile, the current agreement would give too much oversight power to the EU’s top court hand over.
As a Leave supporter, Sunak has some credibility among Eurosceptic allies for finding a solution – but too far a compromise could make key Brexiters in his party rebel.
curry favor
In theory, the Sunak should encounter a smoother ride than its predecessors. Backbench Conservative is the European Research Group (ERG) of Brexiteers not the same group anymore With highly organized and disciplined MPs it came back when it caused daily headaches for Theresa May during the last parliament.
But there is talk throughout Westminster that the issue of protocol could give the group a new purpose, Pressure from rebel Tory MPs has already forced Sunak into a series of embarrassing U-turns in other policy areas, and Downing Street is well aware that the Tory Brexiteers could cause significant headaches, given any deal with the EU. Even aspects of the New Agreement require a House of Commons vote.
Sunak is already taking initiatives specific to the ERG, along with other policy decisions. He’s talking tough on illegal migrant crossings of the English Channel, pushing a controversial Johnson-era plan correction or ax A range of EU-derived laws are still in force in the UK
The “sunset clause” of the retired EU law bill will automatically clear from the UK statute book laws that have not been changed or repealed by the end of the year. The policy has been criticized by business groups for creating regulatory uncertainty for the private sector.
A government official told POLITICO that the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy now believes there are around 3,200 retained EU laws still on the UK statute books. it’s less than about 600 previously reportedYet it still remains a vast exercise for the overburdened civil service.
Senior Tory MP David Davies, a staunch Brexiteer and former Brexit secretary, said “it certainly looks like” Sunak is trying to curry favor with the right of the party by lighting this huge Brexit bonfire of EU legislation.
Davis said, “This is a policy reform in pursuit of a title rather than a policy.” “There are probably around 5-10 per cent of EU laws that need to be repealed and replaced as they make a material difference.”
But he added: “The industry has become accustomed to it over the years. When I was a trader, I didn’t care about the old regulations – it was the new regulations that created the burden.”
Yet the exercise serves a clear political purpose – assuring Brexiters that Sunak, who supported Britain’s departure from the European Union in 2016 as a junior MP, is still one of them.
A senior Tory in the ERG group confirmed that “there is considerable goodwill for the prime minister within the ERG because of the bill.”
The MP said: “A lot of EU law needs to be got rid of. It is a strange and intolerable situation where we have rules written by a foreign administration.”
Sunak hopes the swift dismantling of EU regulations will give him breathing space among his own MPs to hammer out a deal with Brussels on Northern Ireland. This may be wishful thinking.
The ERG MP said, “We hope the Prime Minister will continue to maintain the goodwill he now has during the Northern Ireland Protocol negotiations.” “However, our support is not unconditional.”
protocol red lines
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Britain’s lead negotiator for the Northern Ireland Protocol talks, is racing to strike a deal with Brussels on the border dispute, with April 10 seen as an unofficial deadline for a deal.
That date would mark the 25th anniversary of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement and would come just before a possible election for currently frozen Northern Ireland Regional Assembly. a spring trip About the same time US President Joe Biden is said to be hanging on to a resolution on the row.
The UK is looking to significantly change the way the protocol works to eliminate the vast majority of checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. And it has long pushed to remove the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) from its role as arbitrator of disputes under the deal.
The EU is in turn proposing to work within the protocol to reduce red tape and border checks on food and medicines coming into Northern Ireland from Great Britain – but has made clear that they will have to face difficulties in implementing the arrangement. European judges will not be excluded from the role.
That reality has led many in Westminster to conclude that Sunak will essentially be forced into a deal that reduces border checks but keeps some role for the ECJ.
Unfortunately for the UK prime minister, Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has also made its position clear – if European judges have any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland, it should be relegated to the territory’s power-sharing assembly. Will not happen.
“The positions of the DUP and the ERG on this are indistinguishable,” the same ERG MP quoted above Told.
He added, “Any deal should not undermine the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement and should not make Northern Ireland the subject of foreign administration and foreign tribunals.”
Another ERG MP warned, “Many Tory MPs will not digest any deal that allows Brussels to continue to dictate laws and regulations for Northern Ireland.”
,No country in the world will accept the situation that we have,” the MP said.
POLITICO’s London Playbook revealed this week that unofficial polls being done now To ask Tory backbenchers what they want to see in the Northern Ireland Protocol deal with Brussels.
Robin Miller, Tory MP and parliamentary private secretary to the Scottish and Welsh secretaries, released a multiple-choice poll on WhatsApp to a group of 64 MPs – in a sign that Number 10 is fully aware of the potential for a backbench rebellion on the issue. aware of.
Back seat driver?
Sunak should also be aware that his two immediate predecessors are keeping a close eye on the talks. Supporters of Johnson and Liz Truss have split into different pressure groups on the Tory backbenches, and both are already causing craze headaches.
a former member of Truss short term The cabinet said there was a “very significant possibility” of widespread backbench Tory rebellion within these two groups over any protocol deal.
“Both former prime ministers made clear commitments that they would not accept a role for the ECJ in Northern Ireland. Boris and Liz are fully together on this point,” the MP warned.
For some, it would be a delicious piece of irony if Johnson helped reignite a Tory civil war over Brexit – three years after fixing the issue for good.