Muhammad Suleiman Al-Ankari
“Our products make the world work,” said Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron Corporation, one of the world’s largest energy companies, at the World Petroleum Conference in Houston, which was held a few days ago. That all-accelerating transition to renewables and clean energy in general will not lead to energy security, and it should be recognized by those who take the approach of moving those energies away from fossil fuels that this poses a great risk to energy security. will affect the safety and stability of its supply. , and cause global economic and social upheaval in the near future, and realistically planning the energy mix requires a rethinking of the future so that such shocks do not result in supply falling short of demand . The adoption of some politicians in the West and their supporters of climate issues resulted in weak investment in fossil fuels and their focus moving largely away from oil, gas and coal during the next two decades, but to Europe and China in electricity generation. The impacting energy crisis showed the danger of accelerating the transition of energy limited to wind and sun, which cannot be controlled by the stability of its supply because it is influenced by weather factors that are not controlled. can go. For the world to balance demand and supply with oil production, investments will need to increase by more than $530 billion annually by 2030 AD. Production, while the world is witnessing a significant decline in investment as they have registered a decline of around $340 billion and is likely to decline further in future with the policies adopted by consuming countries especially in Europe and America. In this crisis, his position appeared to be different as he called for the need to reduce reliance on it to reduce carbon emissions while calling for an increase in oil production to lower its prices, knowing that That these emissions are not exported from the production of crude oil, but from industries that are concentrated in their countries in the field of transportation and other and other uses. This is in addition to an important factor that these emissions are not only attributable to oil and gas and their use, but that there are other reasons that outweigh them, as the solution must be comprehensive to all sources, increasing the efficiency of optimum use first. in place and using technology to achieve this, but of course what matters to the business sector and investors and consumers, is the availability of energy and its cost, and therefore preserving the growth achieved in the global economy and the upcoming goals it is necessary to do. Sustaining this growth by achieving energy security and behaving realistically in shaping the energy mix. Oil and gas still represent about 70 percent of the world’s use in energy and industries whose derivatives are used in many human uses. Therefore, the rapid transition from them to clean and selective energy will not be easy and will be fraught with great risks, if not impossible. In the short term, it engulfs oil markets and with the global decline in investment poses many challenges to meeting gas demand, especially from European and American oil companies. On Russia, if it takes military action against Ukraine, sanctions could include Russian oil and gas fields, which are among the biggest export countries for them, as well as those obstructing consensus in the Iranian nuclear talks file. In addition to leaked information about major damages and Washington’s threat to tighten sanctions if negotiations fail, and that it will most likely be the first of these sanctions, oil and gas prices in a worst-case scenario. But what will be the effect of such incidents? In these two files, is the world prepared for a huge jump in oil and gas prices in such a scenario? In the medium and long term, what is reflected by the characteristics of oil market trends is a contraction in the growth of supply globally compared to an increase in demand as a result of the lack of investment, which will inevitably be significant. increase in prices. It will be no less if energy mix policies are no longer considered by large consumers in the West who are taking steps to transition to renewable energy without considering the challenges and risks that result. It is necessary to deal realistically with the fact that oil and gas will forever and for decades remain the basis for global energy security and obtaining safety valves to operate the global economy.
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