boris johnson as the rebel faces a dramatic no-confidence motion today Tory The MPs want to end his leadership.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Backbench 1922 committee, confirmed this morning that he had now received 54 letters from Conservative MPs needed to trigger a vote.
Secret voting begins in Westminster between 6pm and 8pm today Chances are Mr Johnson’s term could come crashing down less than three years after winning an 80-strong Commons majority.
This comes after a steady stream of Tory lawmakers have publicly called on the prime minister to stand down in the wake of Sue Grey’s report on illegal COVID parties in No. 10 and Whitehall.
Although the rebels would need 180 lawmakers to remove the prime minister, and Mr Johnson’s aides – including members of the cabinet – have made it clear he is determined to fight to stay.
Here are the major questions about the upcoming vote.
What is the mechanism to remove the Tory leader?
radical Party rules allow MPs to force a no-confidence vote in their leader, with most of the responsibility in the hands of Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Backbench 1922 committee.
A total of 54 no-confidence letters from Tory MPs, who represent 15 percent of the 360-strong parliamentary party, are needed to trigger a vote.
Sir Graham has received a steady stream of letters in recent days as the Tories spent time consulting local parties in their constituencies about their position.
They announced this morning that Platinum had reached the threshold – after waiting for the conclusion of the Jubilee celebrations.
At least 50 percent of Tory lawmakers must vote ‘no-confidence’ for the prime minister to lose.
Most predictions suggest Boris Johnson is likely to win today’s no-confidence vote, but he could still be injured
How many Tory lawmakers have sent letters so far?
Letters are confidential until the MP who sent it makes it public.
This means that only Sir Graham knows how many letters there are at a time – and that famous secret about numbers.
Almost every day last week Tory lawmakers announced they had submitted letters of no confidence in their leader.
More than 30 Tory lawmakers have publicly urged the PM to resign amid the PartyGate fallout, but have not confirmed whether they have submitted letters.
Jesse Norman – a longtime supporter of Mr Johnson – became the latest Tory MP to announce today that he has submitted a letter to Sir Graham.
In a letter to the PM posted on social media, Hereford and South Herefordshire MP Mr Norman said Mr Johnson had presided over a ‘casual law-breaking culture’ at No 10 and upheld his claim by lawsuit went. The Gray Report was ‘bizarre’.
Why now?
Earlier this year Mr Johnson became the first UK prime minister to break the law.
He refused to stand after receiving a single fine for attending a lockdown-violating event in Downing Street in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic.
But support for him among Conservatives has waned in recent weeks after the publication of an internal investigation that found he presided over a culture of parties that lasted late into the night and even left employees. There was also a drunken fight between them.
Several Tory MPs have come forward to say they do not believe the party can win the next general election under Mr Johnson’s leadership.
Opinion polls have shown deep public disapproval of the scandal, with a large number of people saying he deliberately lied about ‘Partygate’ and that he should resign.
The Tories have suffered several electoral setbacks during their tenure, including losing traditionally reserved seats to the Liberal Democrats in by-elections and hundreds of councilors in local elections in early May.
The party is also predicted to lose two more by-elections in south-west and northern England later this month.
What happens between now and this evening’s voting?
Between now and today voting between 6 pm and 8 pm, Tory lawmakers will be subjected to a frantic wave of lobbying by the prime minister and his allies.
Lawmakers will also be called upon for their voting intention to target lobbying efforts at potential rebels.
Cabinet ministers immediately cornered Mr Johnson, therefore – externally at least – will join efforts to push the vote in his favour.
PM’s opponents are also likely to be similarly active.
How does the physical voting process work?
1922 A ballot box placed in the office of one of the executive members of the Committee shall be used for voting.
It is likely that the box will be placed in the same room where MPs gather for committee meetings every week, on the first floor of the Palace of Westminster in the center of a long corridor, overlooking the Thames.
Tory MPs will vote by secret ballot between 6 pm and 8 pm and photography will be banned just like in the general election.
The aim is to prevent the PM’s aides from demanding photographic evidence that an MP has voted in his favour.
The idea is to allow MPs to vote according to their discretion. Any MP who is away from Westminster may nominate a proxy to vote on his behalf.
Sir Graham Brady oversees the process as chairman of the Backbench 1922 Committee
When will the result be declared?
The process is a simple yes-or-no vote, in which the leader technically only needs to win the support of a simple majority of lawmakers.
Sir Graham said the arrangements for when the announcement would be made would be issued ‘after today’.
Given the results will be counted immediately and not having to go through a particularly large number of ballots, this is likely to happen very quickly.
It is likely that Sir Graham will do the same as in 2018 and gather MPs and journalists in the same committee room where the voting took place earlier in the day.
He will then announce whether the parliamentary party trusts Mr Johnson before revealing the number of votes cast on each side.
Sir Graham said he expected a ‘clear result’.
What if he lost?
The leader is dismissed if he does not win the vote by a majority of MPs, and a leadership contest begins in which he cannot stand.
However, he generally remains as prime minister until a replacement is chosen.
In a leadership contest, MPs narrow the field of contenders to two before party members have the final say.
How does the Tory leadership contest work?
If Mr Johnson is voted on or is forced to resign, there will be a leadership contest to replace him as the head of the Tory party – although he is likely to remain in the position of prime minister until his successor. .
The competition takes place in two phases.
In the first phase, Conservative MPs put themselves forward as candidates.
All Tory MPs then vote in a series of rounds to reduce the number of candidates until only two remain.
The second phase of the contest sees the remaining two candidates vote for members of the Conservative Party.
Following the resignation of Theresa May, Mr Johnson won the leadership contest against Jeremy Hunt in 2019.
And if he survives?
If Mr Johnson survives, a vote of confidence cannot be held for another year by the 1922 committee under Conservative Party rules.
However, Sir Graham acknowledged today that Mr Johnson would not necessarily be safe, even if he survived tonight’s vote.
Although Conservative Committee rules state that there cannot be another confidence vote for 12 months, Sir Graham said those procedures could be changed.
Theresa May – pictured with her husband Philip at the Platinum Jubilee Thanksgiving Service in St. Paul – also faced a vote of no confidence
“Technically a change in the rules is possible, but at present the rule is that there will be a grace period,” he told reporters.
But if Johnson escapes the vote this evening, his leadership could be mortally weakened if a large number of lawmakers vote against him.
Can he resign anyway if he only wins by a narrow margin?
Technically yes, but the signals coming from the number 10 show that he is determined to fight.
A Downing Street spokesman said: “Tonight is your chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move forward to meet the priorities of the people.”
‘The PM welcomes the opportunity to present his case to MPs and will remind them that there is no stronger political force when they are united and focused on issues that matter to voters.’
His reputation as a political survivor, who has resisted other calls to resign in the past, also suggests that he will be forced out.
Who can replace Mr Johnson?
A major problem for the rebels is the lack of an obvious replacement for Mr Johnson.
Rishi Sunak, previously considered the favorite, was also fined at the partygate and is no other front runner.
Former cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt has been seen as a contender, while Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is riding high with the party’s grassroots roots. Tom Tugendhat is the only MP who has openly declared that he wants to be PM.
When was the last time the mechanism was used to replace the leader?
The last vote of confidence took place in December 2018, when after months of speculation, enough lawmakers decided they no longer had confidence in Theresa May’s leadership.
She won the contest by 200 votes to 117 – making her one year free from another challenger.
But he was forced to announce his resignation the following spring amid another revolt over Brexit, paving the way for Mr Johnson to take the helm.