Lebanon is ‘hostage to Hezbollah’s veto power’, says Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi
Dubai: Eighteen years ago this month, Rafik Hariri, a prominent politician and former prime minister of Lebanon, was assassinated by a suicide truck bomb in Beirut. Originally a philanthropist before his involvement in politics, Hariri, who had made his fortune in construction, donated millions of dollars to victims of war and conflict in Lebanon, and later helped end the civil war and rebuild the capital city. played a major role in
Hariri’s assassination marked the beginning of dramatic political change in Lebanon and movements demanding democracy. In the years following his assassination, politicians and important figures who opposed both Syria and Hezbollah’s influence in the country were targeted.
Despite an international tribunal finding Hezbollah members guilty of Hariri’s murder following passionate calls for an investigation into his death, the Iran-backed militia group has tightened its grip on Lebanon, keeping the country in dire straits.
Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi said on “Frankly Speaking”, “Hariri was killed 18 years ago and it took about 15 years to destroy the whole country.” business leaders.
Nadeem Shehadi talks with Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen. (supply)
“The Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the independent international commission of inquiry came to Lebanon, and it took them almost 15 years to produce their result. And for the first time in the history of Lebanon, where we have had multiple killings, for the first time, we had a conviction Shahadi said.
But according to him, despite the conviction in Hariri’s case, Hezbollah’s influence over Lebanon means that the real perpetrators of the murder will go unpunished, and the group continues to hold the country hostage.
Lebanon’s various political and economic crises have only intensified in recent years, with inflation in the country set to be the highest in the world in 2021 and the value of the Lebanese lira falling rapidly.
Last year saw a series of bank holdups by armed customers trying to withdraw their frozen deposits. In a country whose capital was previously called the “Paris of the East”, two-thirds of the population now suffer from poverty, with regular power cuts and shortages of basic necessities such as medicine and water becoming increasingly common.
The country’s chronic instability has deepened in recent years in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the 2020 Beirut port explosion, which killed hundreds, left hundreds of thousands homeless, and largely destroyed more than half of the city. Economic loss happened.
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, two international organizations that campaign against injustice and inequality, have called the investigation into the blast a “farce”.
Shehadi claims that Hezbollah has interfered with the investigation, despite Lebanon’s historically “very healthy and functioning judiciary”.
This series of disasters has prompted many Lebanese to call for the ouster of the entire political class, which Shehadi sees as a “ridiculous demand”.
In his opinion, Lebanon’s political system is not “sectarianism”, as some observers term it, but rather “a political system based on a social contract between communities and which has sustained the country … before it became a state”. Too.”
“We have a banking system that was the banking center of the region. We have political parties. These are the pillars that separate Lebanon … and the revolution is asking for the dissolution of almost all of these pillars,” he said. Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.
While Shehadi acknowledges that there are certainly issues with Lebanon’s political class, which he says was compromised by 15 years of occupation and political intrusion by the Syrian regime, “this does not justify calling for the overthrow of the entire system.” determines.”
Eight months after the country’s general elections, Lebanon still has not reached a consensus regarding its president or a functioning parliament.
Urgent political reforms are needed to unlock $3 billion in emergency funds from the International Monetary Fund, but with Lebanon’s political system in tatters and its lawmakers regularly defecting, access to these funds appears unlikely.
Shehadi said that while he is not opposed to a “fragmented” parliament with different political views, “we do not have a fractured parliament. What we have is a paralysis of all those institutions that have been in place for 15 years, almost 17 years.” is being made
He said that Lebanon and its institutions are “hostage to the veto power” of Hezbollah, which has gained a foothold in Lebanon through assassinations and building political alliances.
Shehadi compares Hezbollah’s gradual infiltration of state institutions in Lebanon to the behavior of drug cartels in power in narco-states in Latin America.
“They bribe politicians, judiciary, police, army. People who cannot be co-opted are probably dead, and who can be framed or blackmailed if you like – that is how criminal organizations gain power in a country,” he said.
Lebanon’s parliament has held eleven electoral sessions to elect the president since 29 September last year, failing to elect a candidate in each session.
In recent days, Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has emerged as a possible contender. However, this would require a constitutional amendment and a consensus from Parliament, which is currently headed by Speaker Nabih Berri.
Although he calls Berry “a brilliant orator” who is familiar with the inside and out of Lebanon’s tangled political web, Shehadi says Berry is “a hostage himself.”
Berri is the leader of the Amal movement, which in the 1980s was involved in a years-long war with Hezbollah that killed thousands.
“It ended with an agreement between them, sponsored by Iran and Syria, under which they basically formed a bloc and a list in parliament, which means they have a monopoly of Shia representation. They don’t have a monopoly of Shia support.” But they have a monopoly of Shia representation because they manipulate the lists in their regions,” Shehdi said.
During the several election sessions running from September 2022 to January this year, many MPs left their ballots blank, with some casting their vote for “Lebanon,” “righteous dictator,” and “none” in early sessions .
Shehadi explained that major decisions and appointments within the Lebanese administration must be made by consensus and with the signatures of the president, the speaker of parliament and the prime minister. Amid the current political power vacuum, this means that the government in Lebanon has ceased to function.
“We had a caretaker government for 29 months, without a president, without a parliament, and without a functioning government… until our politicians, if you will, compromised and elected Hezbollah’s favorite candidate accepted. So, we are in the same situation, and it is a difficult situation because the longer we resist, the more damage is done, and I think our economic collapse is mainly due to paralysis,” Shehadi said.
“The priority now is to have a president and a functioning parliament and a functioning government so that state institutions do not collapse further.”
Shehadi said that although there is no dearth of credible candidates, the Parliament has been “held hostage, and the whole system has been held hostage because you need a certain majority to start the election process. You need two- A one-thirds and one-thirds majority is required, meaning that one-third of parliament can scuttle the process.
Even though this bout of political challenges was overcome and Lebanon managed to receive aid from the IMF, Shehdi said that IMF funds would not be the solution to all of Lebanon’s financial problems. However, he stressed that “engagement with the IMF is critical.”
“It is very important to follow the recommendations of the IMF, especially on fiscal and monetary policy. There is a lot of resistance to some of the IMF reforms, I understand.
“But I think, in my view, it’s more important to be engaged. The country is being paralyzed and isolated from the West, from the Arab countries, and will now be isolated from international institutions as well. , like the IMF and the World Bank and the UN and all that. Ignoring the IMF route is very harmful.
Shehadi agrees with the World Bank’s assessment of the downturn in Lebanon as one of the worst modern crises in recent history. But when asked if he thought there was a way out of the quagmire, he replied: “Yeah, but I don’t see it only for Lebanon. The whole region is facing the same problem. Lebanon’s case in Palestine That’s what’s happening in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen, and it could spread to other countries in the region that may be vulnerable.
He continued: “It should be treated as a regional phenomenon, which is essentially the role of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC, as a paramilitary, non-state actor, exerts influence on the Iranian state and society in the same way.” the way Hezbollah is operating in Lebanon, the way Iranian-sponsored militias are behaving in Iraq, and of course the way Hamas has crippled the entire peace process in Palestine ”
Under the circumstances, Shehadi said that the multidimensional crisis in Lebanon is part of a “wider regional problem that needs to be treated as such. Lebanon is the fault line or weakest point. A lot of the region’s diseases, or problems, were first surface in Lebanon.”
Because of this, Shehadi said, international and regional engagement and cooperation are important components of resolving Lebanon’s crisis, and the international community should avoid viewing Lebanon as a hopeless case.
“We are hostages of course, but we still have a say in the country and we need international support to get out of (Hezbollah’s) grip. And again, the grip is regional. So, our fate is like that of Iraq.” , is like Palestine, is like Syria and is like Yemen.
“I don’t think anyone can look at it in a fragmented way. And it’s wrong to give up on a place just because it’s considered lost. Lebanon is not a lost case.
