The eyes of the world are focused on this for most of the month GlasgowWhere world leaders have been wrestling Climate change,
Meanwhile, 2000 miles away, and with little fanfare, another global drama is unfolding.
The gathering of thousands of immigrants into the EU on the border between Eastern Europe’s last dictatorship, Belarus and Poland, is creating a crisis that, if handled incorrectly, can have dire consequences such as have an argument. cop26 – But too soon. Yesterday, temperatures rose further as Russian paratroopers began landing in Belarus – just 20 miles from the Polish border. This was the Kremlin showing its support for its only ally in Europe.
On paper it doesn’t sound very dangerous. Yes, the idea of mobilizing Russian troops will always cool the West, a legacy of the old days of the Cold War. But for most of us, Belarus is a remote outpost and its politics resonate little beyond its borders. However, the truth is that the increasing stress out there should be of great concern to all of us.
Located between the European Union and Russia, and crossed by major continental transit routes, Belarus is strategically important. In the west, it borders three former communist countries (Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) that are now members of NATO and the European Union. To the east are Russia and Ukraine.
Against this already volatile superpower rivalry, Belarus’ authoritarian leader, President Alexander Lukashenko, has increased his standoff with his western neighbours, writes Mark Almond.
Belarus’ capital, Minsk, is just 400 miles from Moscow—spitting distance in that vast, vast space—and the two countries are longtime allies.
Discontent and conflict have raged in the region since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatist rebels in the Donbass region of southeastern Ukraine, causing panic among Western leaders.
Tensions escalated in recent days when Ukraine used drones to strike a rebel post earlier this month, angering the Russians. They have now moved their own troops – along with tanks and artillery – to the Ukrainian border.
Enter the Americans, who warned European allies just days earlier that Russia’s mobilization could be in preparation for an invasion of Ukraine’s eastern borders.
Against this already volatile superpower rivalry, Belarus’ authoritarian leader, President Alexander Lukashenko, has intensified his standoff with his western neighbours. His controversial-the victory in the country’s 2020 presidential election, which was surrounded by widespread allegations of vote-rigging and mass protests against which he instigated a brutal crackdown, led to EU sanctions.
Now Lukashenko wants to dare punish the EU – and ‘weaponizing’ migrants from the Middle East is his latest move. In recent weeks, Belarus has granted tourist visas to thousands of Iraqis, Syrians and some Africans, and then helped them try to cross into the European Union through its border countries – mainly Poland, which has given them back. 15,000 soldiers have been deployed to capture them.
Many migrants – mainly young men, but including some women and children – are now stranded at the border in deteriorating conditions.
Many migrants – mainly young men, but including some women and children – are now stranded at the border in deteriorating conditions. In response, the European Commission has accused Belarus of state-sponsored people trafficking, while Lukashenko is playing Western ‘hypocrisy’ on human rights and free movement.
Yet the current migrant crisis at the Polish border, and across the English Channel, could be a harbinger of dire things to come. A warming famine in Afghanistan could lead to migration next year.
Lukashenko is also provoking the West on the other front as he tries to ‘weaponize’ Europe’s energy supply crisis, threatening to block pipelines through his country that deliver Russian gas to Europe. supplies. This may upset his Russian supporters but will surely hurt us as the depth of winter approaches, gas prices are already on the rise. And Lukashenko has calculated that Vladimir Putin will back him out of fear of a pro-Western government taking his place in Belarus if he falls – a tactic now sharpening nerves in NATO.
Lukashenko is also provoking the West on the other front as he tries to ‘weaponize’ Europe’s energy supply crisis, threatening to block pipelines through his country that deliver Russian gas to Europe. supplies.
There are many examples in history of how quickly tensions can escalate in Eastern Europe with dire geopolitical consequences. Lest we forget, a minor crisis in the Balkans in 1914 dragged the members of the then large coalitions – Britain, France and Russia – into World War I against Germany and Austria-Hungary. It is not too hard to imagine that, even if Moscow and Washington do not want war, a simple bullet fired by a border guard or a provocation by Lukashenko could turn these tensions out of control.
Britain, like the US, has sent signaling forces to support the Poles, but the real danger is that if tensions escalate, Putin may bet on the West first. Can we?
,