As the death toll continues to decline and talks progress, could Syria finally find peace in 2023?
IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: Fewer Syrians were killed in 2022 than in any other year since the start of the civil war in 2011. It is unclear whether this represents the beginning of the end of this seemingly endless struggle or merely an interlude before another round of grinding. violence.
An estimated 3,825 Syrians were killed in 2022 – a small decrease from the 3,882 who lost their lives in 2021, but still a continuation of a visible decline in total war-related deaths since 2018.
However, there is no guarantee that this trend will continue till 2023. Although overall violence has decreased in recent years, there are still isolated flashpoints across the country that can explode depending on local political factors.
Aaron Lund, Fellow of Century International and Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, sees two main trends in Syria over the past few years.
“There is a pause towards a more thoroughly frozen frontline. This is the result of all-round exhaustion and the presence of Russian, Turkish and American troops seeking to reduce their spheres of influence,” he told Arab News.
“The second trend has been acute human despair. This is a result of the country’s economic decline, which started accelerating dramatically around 2019-2020.
A mourner sits at a cemetery during the burial of a Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) fighter in the Kurdish-majority town of Qamishli, Syria, December 7, 2022. (AFP file photo)
“There is a serious shortage of major imports, energy and water. New UN figures say 15.3 million Syrians are now dependent on humanitarian aid, or about 70 percent of the country’s current population.
“Even though the violence has come to its lowest point, the situation for civilians is, paradoxically, worse than ever.”
Although Syria has experienced periods of relative stability, Lund notes that it has been “inherently fragile”.
“The status quo could break down due to unexpected internal developments, social conditions and governance could be pulled down by a failing economy,” he said.
“Conflict actors may lose control or become desperate. New crises may also be triggered by external factors.
External factors could potentially include Russia and Iran being forced to reduce their military presence in the country or Turkey’s foreign policy changes. US Middle East policy may also undergo “dramatic change” depending on the results of the next presidential election.
A Syrian fighter fires a sniper rifle during a military exercise by the Turkish-backed “Suleiman Shah Division” in the opposition-held Afrin region of northern Syria, November 22, 2022. (AFP)
Joshua Landis, a noted Syria expert and director of both the Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzane Family Center for Iranian and Persian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, describes Syria’s economic prospects as “grim.”
“The proposed budget for 2023 is about $3.2 billion, compared to about $4 billion in the budget last year,” he told Arab News. “The declining Syrian currency means that, in dollar terms, it will be worth even less.
“Deteriorating economic numbers, the fuel crisis, which has led to frequent demonstrations and protests, as well as a jump in commodity prices for both wheat and fuel due to the war in Ukraine, all mean more economic stagnation and indicate deterioration of services. ,
A woman and a girl dry their clothes at a camp for people displaced by conflict in rural areas near the northern city of Raqqa, Syria, December 19, 2022. (AFP file)
The fall in the value of the budget and the continued fall of the Syrian currency strongly indicate that 2023 will be a tougher year for the Syrian people than 2022.
At the same time, Russia and Iran, the two main sponsors of the Bashar Assad regime, are facing mounting economic problems of their own and may choose to reduce their significant financial aid.
Nicolas Heras, director of the Strategy and Innovation Unit at the New Lines Institute, believes the Syrian conflict is heading towards a “decisive diplomatic moment” in 2023, with Turkey now closer than ever to normalizing relations with Assad .
Photo of Turkish soldiers in the area of Kafr Jannah, on the outskirts of the Syrian city of Afrin, on October 18, 2022. (AFP file)
“This cannot be overstated: if Ankara reaches an agreement with Damascus through Russian-backed talks, the Syrian revolution will be over,” he told Arab News.
At the same time, Turkey has repeatedly threatened a new cross-border offensive against the US-allied and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria. Ankara appears to have set its sights on Tal Rifat, a Kurdish-controlled enclave north of Aleppo.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also indicated plans to capture the strategically important cities of Manbij and Kobani in the east.
A Syrian fighter fires an RPG during a military exercise by the Turkish-backed “Suleiman Shah Division” in the opposition-held Afrin region of northern Syria, November 22, 2022. (AFP)
“This Turkish swordplay is running parallel to the resumption of public dialogue between Damascus and Ankara, so it is a complex issue,” Lund said.
If the rapprochement between Syria and Turkey continues, Lund believes “there is great potential for some form of coordinated action over the course of the year.”
Such coordinated action could allow the Turks to support the Russian-backed Syrian government offensive to recapture these territories, or to trigger a Turkish campaign to Damascus.
“Under such a threat, the SDF may decide to voluntarily withdraw from some areas in the hope of regaining their control elsewhere,” Lund said. “But that kind of military ballet is going to be very carefully coordinated, and have all these stubborn, aggressive actors who don’t take instructions well.
“It is not clear what will happen. If relations break down, a military flare-up is entirely possible.
On the other hand, Heras and Landis doubt that Turkey will launch an offensive against the SDF as long as US forces remain in northeast Syria and Joe Biden remains president. The SDF remains Washington’s main ally in the fight against Daesh in Syria.
“Biden has promised not to withdraw US troops from Syria,” Landis said. “The ongoing war between Turkey and the SDF will mean more deaths in northeast Syria.”
US troops patrol the town of Tel Maroof in Syria’s northeastern Hasakeh province on December 15, 2022. (AFP file)
Heras also argues that as long as the US maintains a military presence in Syria, no actor can overwhelm the SDF.
“Turkey does not have the ability to unilaterally return large parts of northeastern Syria under the control of the SDF back to Assad because the US remains there,” he said.
“Turkey wants to drive the Kurds out of Syria to free up its southern border, and Assad sees the SDF as the enemy, but no country can challenge the US. And Russia can’t work for them. “
Analysts say a deal between Syria and Turkey, backed by Russia, could end the Syrian revolution. (AFP file)
As far as diplomatic developments go, Landis sees the nascent Turkey-Syria talks as a “ray of hope” for greater long-term stability.
“Dialogue with Turkey is extremely important to end the war,” he told Arab News. “While significant progress may be made toward resolving the many outstanding differences between Turkey and Syria, the war will not end this year.”
Turkey and Syria have many differences to resolve before normalizing relations. More than 4 million Syrians live in enclaves in the northwest of the country guarded by Turkey, including many Islamist fighters. Neither Assad nor these fighters welcome any kind of reconciliation.
An aerial view taken on November 5, 2020 shows a refugee camp in the Syrian town of Salwah, less than 10 kilometers from the Syria-Turkey border. (AFP file)
Landis said, “Although Turkey has said it is willing to withdraw from these areas, it has a number of preconditions, some – such as a political settlement with the opposition – the Assad regime is unlikely to accept.”
US and European sanctions against Russia and Iran are likely to have an impact on Syria in the coming year. Landis noted that the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is effectively over, and the new US budget will impose new sanctions on Syria.
“All of this means the Syrian people face another year of belt-tightening, declining services, power outages and health problems,” Landis said.
“Much will depend on whether winter rains bring relief from the persistent drought and whether there is progress in peace talks with Turkey.”
