Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s candid remarks to Al Arabiya news channel that his country had learnt its lessons from the three wars it had fought against India, and wanted to normalise ties with its eastern neighbour for the betterment of the Pakistani economy and its people, seem to have been triggered by the dire straits in which his country finds itself. In a potential repeat of Sri Lanka’s economic meltdown, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are drying up fast, the price of food, especially wheat, has shot up beyond the reach of the common man, and the International Monetary Fund’s release of funds has been held up by Pakistan’s reluctance to meet the lender’s conditions. On a recent trip to the UAE, Prime Minister Sharif managed to secure a $3 bn handout, and the Saudi Fund for Development announced it would lend $1 bn. But these countries, despite their strong religious and political bonds with Pakistan, have made it plain over the last few years that they are tired of bailing out a “brother” who cannot clean up his own act. It is conceivable that Sharif, like Imran Khan before him, heard some harsh truths from the UAE leadership during his visit.
However, it is also clear that the domestic consensus in Pakistan on normalisation with India remains elusive. This makes it difficult if not impossible for Delhi to take Sharif seriously. Within hours of the interview airing, the Pakistan Prime Minister’s Office had to issue a clarification that there could be no talks with Pakistan without a rollback by India of its “illegal actions” of August 2019. From the Indian point of view, this means Sharif’s “message to Prime Minister Narendra Modi” is dead in the water. It must be well known to both the military and political leadership in Pakistan from reported backchannel interactions, that a rollback is not on the cards, Delhi is only considering restoration of statehood of J&K. The attempt of the previous hybrid civil-military dispensation led by Imran Khan and General Qamar Javed Bajwa (retired) to restart trade with India came a cropper because of a lack of consensus within the government and security establishment. General Munir has not spoken on the issues, so it is not known if he shares the views of his predecessor that Pakistan must turn its “unique” geography into a money-spinning link between the east and west.
The bigger question is if Pakistan has really learnt its lessons from the failed wars against India. After all, not long ago, Pakistan has signalled acknowledgement of the fact that the terrorist attacks on its soil were a blowback for the militancy that it had sown and nurtured for several years to wage sub-conventional wars in India and Afghanistan. And yet, Pakistan worked overtime to put the medieval-minded Taliban, a globally designated terrorist group, back in power in Kabul in 2021, unfolding yet another disaster in Afghanistan. All the same, if Sharif were to make a more concrete, less caveated approach to India, one that is backed by all stakeholders in Pakistan, Delhi should not spurn him.