Orbán is telling Ukraine to quit

BUDAPEST – Viktor Orban wants Ukraine to give up.

As Ukrainian flags fly in European capitals and Western tanks come to Ukraine’s rescue, Hungary’s prime minister is openly questioning Ukraine’s viability as a sovereign state. In Budapest, his government has put up anti-sanctions billboards in the streets. The Hungarian State Opera is staging a production of Sergei Prokofiev’s “War and Peace”.

Russia, Orban recently Told A liberal group of foreign conservative figures has already succeeded in turning Ukraine into an ungovernable wreck.

“This is Afghanistan now,” Orban said during a roundtable discussion described in American Orthodoxy. Vladimir Putin will not give up and time is on Russia’s side, he argued, calling Ukraine a “nobody’s land”.

The message almost completely contradicts the rhetoric flying around the rest of the Western alliance, which just last week pierced another red line when it promised Ukraine dozens of modern tanks. And it is raising tensions between Hungary and neighboring Ukraine. Orban’s remarks sparked an outcry from Ukrainian officials, who said they would summon the Hungarian ambassador.

Back in Budapest, Orban’s approach is seen partly as a domestic political ploy to deflect attention from Hungary’s economic woes, as well as pandering to nationalist voters. But there is also a sense among experts that Orban’s rhetoric is about more than just short-term politics – the Hungarian leader, they say, wants to preserve his long-standing ties to the Kremlin.

Either way, the result reflects a growing gulf between Orban and the rest of his EU and NATO allies.

David Pressman, the US ambassador to Budapest, said, “Political leaders in Hungary’s government often talk about promoting peace, but – from condemning sanctions to adopting Russian ‘cease-fire’ proposals – they appear to be following policies supported by Putin. continue to advance.”

“We join the Hungarian government’s calls for peace, but those calls should be directed to Vladimir Putin,” he said in an emailed statement, adding that Washington “stands firmly with the victims of this war.” will continue to advocate for an end to this war.” ,

But while most Western allies moved to provide taboo-breaking support for Ukraine, Hungary doubled down on its stance that Kyiv should simply stop fighting.

“Our Primary Humanity and Sense of Morality,” Orban Told state radio on Friday, “demands that we do everything we can to freeze the frontlines for a ceasefire and for negotiations to begin.”

Orban’s goals

Experts say that Orban is not anti-Ukrainian – his rhetoric is merely an attempt to play both sides and gain political mileage at home.

The prime minister has spent years pursuing a dual foreign policy: enjoying the benefits of EU and NATO membership while developing lucrative ties with Moscow, Beijing and other authoritarian capitals.

And when that same Russian government invaded neighboring Hungary, Orban condemned the invasion – but did not completely abandon his pro-Russia stance.

Hungary is still going forward With a nuclear power plant expansion project in collaboration with Russia’s Rosatom. And Hungarian officials keep traveling to Russia to discuss energy deals. country, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, signed on A deal struck last summer for even more supplies – just as others were seeking to reduce their imports.

And while Budapest has approved most of the EU sanctions packages, Orban has sought to dilute some of the provisions. Meanwhile, back home, he is waging a massive anti-sanctions campaign, blaming Brussels for Hungary’s economic woes.

“Orbán has invested a lot in pro-Russia policies,” said Péter Krákó, director of the Political Capital Institute, a research body that specializes in Hungarian foreign policy.

“There’s an inertia that drives him in that direction,” he said. “It seems like [the] The government has not really been able to correct these mistakes.

there is also a history

Hungary and Ukraine also have a long, troubled relationship due to a dispute over the language rights of Hungarian speakers living in western Ukraine. Predictably, Orban’s stance since the invasion began – not to mention his latest comments – has only deepened those tensions.

“This is unfortunately clearly Russian rhetoric,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s committee on EU integration, when asked about Orban’s latest comments.

“Hungary has long been an enemy of freedom,” she said in a text message. “We are surprised,” she said, that Hungary’s statements and activities “have not yet received a proper response from within [the] European Union and NATO.

Critics of the prime minister were quick to distance themselves from the government’s approach to Ukraine, arguing that Orban does not represent all Hungarians.

“Orban’s comments are beyond shameful,” said Hungarian MEP Katalin Cs, who recently returned from a trip to Kyiv with other members of the opposition Momentum party.

Ukraine, he said, “is a land of valiant freedom fighters and fellow Europeans who deserve our utmost respect.”

The Hungarian government did not respond to requests for comment. However, the Hungarian Foreign Ministry insisted that the government had good intentions.

Responding to Kyiv’s decision to call its ambassador, the ministry Told A pro-government outlet that the war is leading to deaths and turning parts of Ukraine “into a wasteland.”

“That is why,” the ministry said, “Hungary wants peace and an immediate ceasefire instead of arms deliveries.”

saying what he thinks others won’t

Experts say the prime minister’s rhetoric on Ukraine is partly due to an initial miscalculation about the conflict’s trajectory.

“The government was betting on a quick resolution to the conflict and was hoping that Hungary would benefit from maintaining its relationship with Russia,” said Zaslíke Cesky, a fellow at the European University Institute.

“Some apparently thought that Hungary could become a ‘bridge’ between Russia and the rest of Europe and meanwhile cut off trade and other benefits,” she said, “but it is now clear that this will not happen. “

Hungarians who know the prime minister personally well say that part of the explanation for Orban’s controversial comments is that the longtime politician likes to be vocal about issues he believes matter. Other leaders are too timid to address.

“I think he’s doing it because he believes exactly what many Europeans think – and he hopes that Europe will eventually not stand by Ukraine,” said Zsuzsanna Széłyny, a 1990s Ukrainian leader. Initially a member of Orban’s Fidesz party, he is now a critic of the government.

In his discussions with foreign conservatives, Orban pointed to his belief that some politicians may secretly agree with him.

“The Germans suffer because they know what is in their national interest, but they have not been able to say it,” he argued.

But there is also a sense in Budapest that Orban is frequently critical of the West’s response to the war because business circles close to the ruling party still benefit from economic ties to Moscow – and because he is doing his part to oppose sanctions. want to strengthen the case.

Zsuzsanna Wegh, visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said the prime minister “essentially wants to create a justification for resisting any further sanctions that could really start to damage his relationship with Moscow.”

Orban’s rhetoric also plays well with a section of his electorate.

In Hungarian nationalist history “you have a tradition of anti-West, and you also have a tradition of anti-Russian sentiments,” said Cracó of Political Capital.

Now, he said, anti-Western attitudes “trump” anti-Russian sentiment.

But always the pragmatist, Orbán is clearly trying to keep his options open.

Szelényi, who recently wrote a book On Orban’s “tainted” democracy, pointed out that the prime minister has also made adverse comments about Russia.

Orban, she said, “is basically creating a room for maneuver for himself in this crisis.”