One year later, Russia’s war in Ukraine raises fears over Europe’s next security ‘soft spot’

As Russia’s offensive in Ukraine approaches its one-year milestone, fears are growing about the Kremlin’s efforts to take advantage of rising tensions in the “second battleground”.

The Western Balkans, a group of six countries that EU officials have repeatedly said belong to the European family, includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.

Not yet a member of the 27-nation bloc, the region of about 18 million in southern and eastern Europe is known as an area of ​​geostrategic rivalry, with Moscow, Brussels and Washington jockeying for influence.

The promise of joining the European Union is seen as the West’s most powerful tool to stabilize and integrate the region, and Western Balkan leaders recently welcomed There seems to be a new mindset to strengthen ties.

But concerns over Russia’s influence in the Western Balkans — Region still scarred by ethnic wars of the 1990s — have intensified since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, North Macedonia’s President Stevo Pendarovski said that, apart from Kiev, he believed the western Balkan region was a “soft spot” of Europe’s security architecture.

NATO, which counts Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia among its members, said it has seen cyberattacks, misinformation, threats and other destabilizing activities in the western Balkans over the past 12 months. This is in addition to recurring regional tensions including over Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The US-led military coalition also warned of foreign actors working to undermine progress, while North Macedonia’s Pendarovski says the western Balkans have been targeted by Russia’s divisive agenda for years.

“My judgment is that, if Russia will try to divert the attention of the West from Ukraine, which is the main theater of war and propaganda, the western Balkan region is more prone than the Baltics. Therefore, we should take care about , ” Pendarovsky said last month.

“It seems to me that right now the so-called soft spot in the whole pan-European security architecture, apart from Ukraine … of course, is the Western Balkans.”

Moscow, which has long forged ties with Serbia and other allies, has denied It is claimed that it wants to sow anarchy in the entire region.

Adnan Serimagic, a senior analyst for the Western Balkans at the European Stability Initiative think tank, said he agreed with Pendarovsky’s security assessment of the region amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“The reason I agree is that the Western Balkans, like Russia, have a political vision that does not align with the current shape [its] limits,” Ćerimagic told CNBC via telephone.

Ćerimagic said that Russia’s war in Ukraine offers Europe a clear opportunity to strengthen stability in the Western Balkans. He said the bloc could seize the moment by providing a concrete proposal allowing countries to join by 2027 or 2030 if they implement the necessary reforms.

“I think if they want to seal the deal, they will need to increase their offering in the area,” Serimagic said.

EU officials have sought to reaffirm the importance of bringing the western Balkans into the bloc after Russia invaded Ukraine and regional leaders – With a big change in tone from just a few months ago – appreciated this development at the end of last year.

At the EU-Western Balkans summit in early December, which was held for the first time in the Balkan region, the bloc underlined the Its “full and clear commitment to the EU membership perspective of the Western Balkans.”

This was conditioned on “credible reforms” by the partners.

The EU’s chief foreign affairs spokesman, Peter Stano, said he completely rejects criticism that the EU has not done enough to support the Western Balkans’ entry into the bloc.

“The fact that they are in the accession process, every day they are getting closer and more integrated with the EU, based on their efforts to implement reforms and the substantial support from the EU,” Stano said.

When asked about the current security situation in the region, Stano replied: “The issue is more about stability than security.”

“It is not a war zone, and it will not become a war zone for two reasons. Some countries in the region are already NATO members, and in others, we have EU missions (military and civilian) and they are all EU Accessions are in process,” Stano said.

“It provides enough preventive safeguards to avoid any kind of difficult or heated conflict,” he said, adding that there are still incidents and tensions, “but it is something different and linked to previous unresolved issues.” “

“Certainly, the Western Balkans is a second battleground for Russia in terms of foreign interference and information manipulation. It has been there before, but after Ukraine, it intensified in terms of overall interference, including cyber attacks. are involved, and trying to reduce stability because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin doesn’t want them to get closer to the EU,” Stano said.