Oil supply growth expected to lag demand next year

Meanwhile, the IEA expects supply growth to outpace demand, further fueling an already tight market. rising prices in losses of 500,000 barrels per day. US oil producers are expected to increase supplies next year, while members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries watch Continuing to struggle to meet your production goals,

The Paris-based agency said in its closely watched oil markets report on Wednesday that crude oil demand will rise by 2.2 million barrels a day to 101.6 million barrels a day in 2023, above 2019 levels for the first time. , This is the first time the IEA has offered a forecast for 2023.

The IEA said developed countries in Europe and North America contributed the most to accelerating demand in 2022, but less developed economies that are not members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development will see an 80% increase in oil demand in 2022.

China, which This year has seen economic growth struggle As a result of resurgent Covid-19 cases and lockdowns, 2023 is expected to see oil demand rise by 930,000 barrels a day, thereby re-establishing “its position as the primary engine of global oil-demand growth”. will help, the IEA said.

Meanwhile, a rebound in international travel next year will increase demand for jet fuel by 990,000 barrels per day in 2023, it said.

However, oil producers are expected to struggle to keep up with the uptrend in oil demand. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day to 101.1 million barrels per day in 2023, leading to a 500,000 barrel-day deficit.

fluctuations in oil prices small profit and loss On Wednesday, traders await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting later in the day. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell 0.2% to $120.93 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, was down 0.2% to $118.68 a barrel.

Countries in Europe and North America that have spent years shifting their economies to greener sources of energy have been reluctant to pump more oil to ease the emerging wine supply crisis. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,

Major oil producers, including OPEC+—a coalition of non-OPEC producers led by OPEC and Russia—have struggled to meet their targets for modest supply growth, beset by technical issues and capacity constraints.

The IEA said on Wednesday that supply issues were a shortfall of 2.8 million barrels per day between the group’s targeted and actual production compared to the previous month.

The IEA expects the OPEC+ issue to continue until 2023. The agency estimates that OPEC+ production will fall by 500,000 barrels per day to 51.1 million barrels per day in 2023. Meanwhile, supplies to non-OPEC+ members are projected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day. Up to 50 million barrels per day.

For the current year, the IEA kept its demand forecast unchanged at 99.4 million barrels per day. In 2019, before the pandemic hit, demand stood at 100.4 million barrels.

The IEA raised its 2022 oil supply forecast by 600,000 barrels per day to 99.8 million barrels per day. That means the agency is seeing a surplus of 400,000 barrels a day in the oil market this year.

write to Will Horner william.horner@wsj.com