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As war rages in Europe, the race to find the next head of NATO is on.
Jens Stoltenberg was a steady hand as Western capitals helped push back Ukraine from invading Russian troops. But as his term ends in September, speculation is rife as to who could be his successor.
Could it be a woman? Anyone from Eastern Europe?
The Battle of Moscow greatly complicated the decision, which required consensus among the leaders of NATO’s 30 member states.
The next Secretary General must perform a difficult balancing act between encouraging capitals to continue supplying arms to Ukraine and NATO building its defense — all while formally remaining out of the conflict. Very few qualify for this highly sensitive role.
A senior NATO diplomat said the “overall feeling” is that it is “time for fresh air”.
But the Allies can play it safe and stick with Stoltenberg.
stoltenberg card
A senior European diplomat discussed the names in three levels, ranked by the intensity of the chatter.
The most commonly mentioned option is to extend Stoltenberg’s tenure.
A second tier includes Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and the British Defense Secretary. Ben Wallace,
A third group of names mentioned less frequently, the diplomat said, include Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrid Simonite, Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova and Germany’s European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Since all NATO secretaries-general have been men so far, there is pressure within the ranks to appoint a woman.
“Time for a female secondary,” said a senior NATO diplomat. “If men try to stay in their positions forever, there will never be a chance for proper representation of women.”
And some allies have pushed for greater regional diversity. Stoltenberg, who has held the position since 2014, is the former Prime Minister of Norway. Their most recent predecessors were the Danish, the Dutch and the British.
The term of the current secretary-general was sharply extended last March following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many executives now believe that another extension, albeit short, for Stoltenberg is a serious possibility.
The older leader is seen as a safe pair of hands. Despite some delegations preferring to see a new face sooner, Stoltenberg is still regarded as the rare senior official who can keep his cool – and stick to the script even in the face of a crisis.
“Stoltenberg wants to stay,” said a senior NATO diplomat.
But giving Stoltenberg a short extension could see future replacement decisions clash with the EU’s competition for its top jobs in 2024, not to mention the upcoming US presidential election – an outcome some allies would prefer to avoid.
A NATO spokesman declined to elaborate on Stoltenberg’s future aspirations. When asked about the issue in December, the current Secretary-General told the BBC: “My focus is now on my responsibilities.”
He said, “I do not anticipate what will happen after my term.”
eastern front
Some consider candidates from Eastern Europe to be particularly suitable.
Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was motion for the alliance to select a Secretary General from the East. Some officials in the region argue that the war strengthened the case for a nation state such as Estonia or Lithuania.
“For years, countries on the East Coast have been warning about the threat Russia poses,” said a Baltics official.
The Baltic official said countries in the region were leading the way in pushing the alliance to increase military spending and improve their defenses.
“It would be very logical and serious,” the official continued, “for someone who is experienced in dealing with Russia and who understands Russia’s logic and mentality, to lead the North Atlantic Alliance.”
Slovakia’s Caputova ticks both boxes as the women’s eastern candidate, although her name is mentioned less frequently in coalition circles.
A spokesman for Čaputova said she was focused on her current job, but that the Slovak prospect for the NATO post was “a strong reflection of our foreign and security decisions.”
another figure Possibly in the running is Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. But she may face obstacles from neighboring Hungary, and opposition from those who would prefer a female candidate.
However, some Western capitals would not support such candidates, given the former coalition – and especially the Baltic states – as very flamboyant When war is raging in the neighborhood.
Kailas of Estonia himself has defied expectations, Say local media in November that “the chances of such an offer” are “extremely small”.
western option
Western NATO countries are for some allies a reliable fallback source for potential leadership.
Wallace, Britain’s Defense Secretary, is highly respected and has previously been Told NATO would be a “good deed”. However, several European capitals – notably Paris – are expected to object to London’s name and push for an EU candidate.
A possible agreement is being negotiated in Brussels with another Secretary General from the Netherlands. Dutch politicians have traditionally been a popular choice for the role, having previously held the position for three terms over 21 years over the past six decades.
The Dutch are seen to be equally serious on defence, but not as aggressive as in the Baltics – and name current Prime Minister Rutte, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag and Minister of Defense Kajsa Ollongren All are circulating as possible candidates.
When asked about the speculation, Rutte said he wanted to “leave politics altogether and do something different.” Two Dutch ministers showed no interest in the job.
Commission chairman von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, is nervous about the prospect of a leader from the eastern flank, a female candidate who could garner support from Western capitals, but it is unclear whether. whether she is interested in the role or not. A commission spokesman said, “We never comment on such speculation.”
Although his reputation in security circles is mixed, von der Leyen is seen as a strong potential candidate – if the timing aligns and he does not get a second term as European Commission president.
Other female politicians include Canada’s widely respected Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie. Still, officials say, as the coalition focuses on bolstering its defences, Ottawa’s low defense spending and non-European status mean a Canadian is unlikely to get the job.
Amidst all the speculation, some within the alliance dismiss the name game out of breath.
“It’s a basket of names that came to someone’s mind,” said a second senior European diplomat, “my guess: Stoltenberg.”
Jacopo Barigazzi and Cristina Gallardo contributed reporting,