Indian PM’s party wins home state but 2024 national vote unlikely to be a ‘cakewalk’
New Delhi: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s victory in his home state of Gujarat showed a strong showing, but experts said on Friday that the victory was not a trendsetter for the national vote which is less than two years away.
Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won 99 to 156 seats in Gujarat’s 182-seat legislature on Thursday, in its best showing yet in the western state of nearly 60 million people.
The party has governed Gujarat since 1995, and Modi served as its chief minister for 12 years before becoming prime minister in 2014.
He was governing the state in 2002, when 2,000 people, most of them Muslims, were killed in the worst outbreak of communal violence since the country’s independence.
If the opposition comes up with a strong agenda, you can see the mood of the country changing very fast. India is still an open society.
Prof. Ajay Gudavarthyanalyst
After Thursday’s victory, he took to Twitter to thank his voters, saying he was “overwhelmed” by the results.
The Indian media is projecting the victory as a litmus test for the 2024 general elections, when Modi is expected to become prime minister for the third time.
The state’s election results were even more remarkable, as their voters were frustrated by rising prices and unemployment.
“This is a surprising victory in Gujarat, given the government’s failure and poor human development index,” Ajay Gudavarti, professor at the Center for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, told Arab News.
But an unexpected landslide is no guarantee of victory in 2024, and the opposition still has time to mobilize.
“There’s no going easy, and 2024 is still an open game,” Goodworthy said. He said, ‘If the opposition comes with a strong agenda, then you can see the mood of the country changing rapidly. India is still an open society.”
Earlier this year, the BJP scored a major victory in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, which sends the most members to parliament. But the ruling party lost power to the opposition Congress in Himachal Pradesh and the Aam Aadmi Party in New Delhi, despite ruling the capital region for the past 15 years.
He said, ‘There is a lot of dissatisfaction among the people with the way the Modi government is ruling the country. There is a problem with governance, unemployment is high and a large section of the population is suffering. In this situation, you cannot expect Modi to make a comeback so easily,” Shashi Shekhar Singh, professor of political science at Delhi University, told Arab News.
“Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi’s One India campaign is connecting with the masses, and I am sure it will influence the 2024 elections.”
But the opposition’s own fragmentation has dealt a blow to its mobilisation.
Television anchor and senior political commentator Urmilesh saw not only a “lack of unity” but also a clear agenda among the opposition parties.
It is beneficial to Modi, he said, “if the opposition does not act together and channelize its energy to address the prevailing discontent.”