Ankara: On Sunday evening, Turkey followed a terminology change in defining the ongoing Russian attack on Ukraine as “war” – a stronger term than its earlier statements that described it as “unacceptable military intervention”. described in.
Ankara also reiterated its mediation offer to host peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.
Ankara’s latest move sparked a debate about whether it would implement the wartime articles of the Montreux Convention on its Dardanelles and the Bosporus Strait that mandated Russian warships not attached to the Black Sea Fleet to serve the Turkish Straits for the duration of the conflict. will prevent crossing.
“We are witnessing another war in our region. President Erdogan has offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine because we have strong ties with both countries. , He also called for a unified stance on the part of allies,” tweeted Turkey’s communications chief Fahrettin Altun.
Another important question is whether Turkey can play an effective role in mediating between the warring parties at a time when Ankara is working with Ukraine and Russia to secure both its energy imports and tourism flows from Russia and defense cooperation with Ukraine. Trying to maintain our good relations.
Similarly, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview with Turkish broadcaster CNN Turk that “the situation in Ukraine is officially a war in accordance with Article 19 of the Montreux Convention.”
On the first day of the war, the Ukrainian ambassador to Ankara, Vasil Bodnar, urged Ankara to close the strait to the passage of Russian warships.
But Cavusoglu insisted Turkey could not stop all Russian warships reaching the Black Sea because a clause in the Montreux Convention exempts those returning to their registered bases.
Ankara’s move to describe the events in Ukraine as war under the Montreux Convention gives Turkey the right to act accordingly. As of Sunday, it has dubbed the conflict a “military intervention” or an unacceptable “operation”.
So far, senior Turkish officials have repeatedly urged the sides to resume ceasefire talks and stop Russian attacks immediately.
As a diplomatic tool, Turkey attaches great importance to mediation. A decade ago, it launched the Mediation for Peace Initiative with Finland, a group of countries that work on different mediation practices.
Turkey’s arbitration offers have been consistently welcomed by the Ukrainian side, while Russia will welcome any Turkish attempt to persuade Ukraine to come into compliance with the current Minsk Protocol of 2015 as a result of any arbitration offer.
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Rane Intelligence, said Turkey’s announcement of a partial closure of the Bosporus Strait for Russian military activity would likely make the country appear less neutral in any potential Ukrainian-Russian peace talks. .
“That being said, Russia is feeling very isolated at the moment and is trying to give Turkey some kind of symbolic victory to improve relations with Moscow after the war,” he told Arab News. Told.
But Bohl said Turkey’s ability to mediate any talks rests on the belief that Russia is interested in serious ceasefire talks.
“It is still not clear whether Putin’s minimalism aims at what he laid out in his nationwide speeches that is going to advance Russia’s strategy,” he said.
“If they do, whatever role Turkey can play in the talks will be symbolic,” he said.
On Sunday, Cavusoglu held intense diplomatic contacts with key figures seeking a resolution to the conflict, including OSCE Secretary-General Helga Maria Schmid, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
According to Jonathan Katz, senior fellow and director of Democracy Initiatives at the US-based German Marshall Fund, Turkey should support Ukraine through direct military and humanitarian aid, strengthen defense of NATO and its allies, including the Black Sea and the South Caucasus. .
“Therefore, it is also important for Ankara to close the Bosporus and Dardanelles for Russian warships,” he told Arab News.
“Putin’s war with Ukraine is a direct threat to Turkey’s security and will have lasting implications for the security of the Turkish people.”
At least six Russian warships and one submarine passed through the Turkish Straits this month.
Although Ankara is yet to engage in Western sanctions against Russia, the Russian side is still skeptical about a possible role Turkey could play in peace talks, especially when Ankara has openly described the Russian invasion as “war”. Defined as and called the Russian annexation of Crimea. an occupation.
Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank close to the Kremlin, said it would be difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept Erdogan’s mediation.
“The reason is that Ukraine has always sided with Ukraine since 2014. It’s like having two Zelenskys at the table in front of Putin instead of one,” he told Arab News.
Since 2018, Turkey has sold Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine, helping the military destroy significant amounts of Russian armor, while also allowing the two countries to jointly produce some defense and security technologies have agreed.
“Although being a mediator between Ukraine and Russia would be Turkey’s dream scenario, it is increasingly unlikely that it will happen, especially if Turkey actually decides to close the strait to Russia’s warships because it is an obvious political would indicate that it chooses a pro-Ukraine side,” Karol Wasilewski, a Turkish analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, told Arab News.
“I also doubt that the Russians will agree to this,” he said.
Vasilevsky said, “The regime is increasingly isolated and will certainly add to the points that a change in Turkey’s rhetoric about Russian aggression – the fact that Turkey began to call it a ‘war’ – Came right after the NATO summit.”