Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle have stepped up their rhetoric against the country, attacking its European dream with the same rhetoric they have used against Ukraine.
Yet in practice Russia’s ability to intervene is limited. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, local Russian forces have been cut off from their normal supply lines, unable to bring reinforcements or fly in hardware. Many have not moved in or out of Moldova for years, and have settled locally and raised families. And while they sit on one of Europe’s largest arsenals of weapons and ammunition at the closely guarded Kobasna Depot, it is widely believed to contain nothing more than decaying WWII-era equipment, Those that have not already been sold or repurposed by the Russians.
Other frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space have resulted in catastrophe. Last year alone, the standoff between Azerbaijan and Armenia led to the mass exodus of 100,000 people from Nagorno-Karabakh.
But in the case of Moldova, there is no ethnic animosity underlying the efforts to end the impasse. Almost all Transnistrian residents hold Moldovan passports and move freely through Russian-guarded checkpoints. Like Moldovans living elsewhere in the country, Transnistrian residents will benefit from the economic boom of joining the EU – no matter what Putin wants for them.
Even if Moscow cannot intervene militarily, it could still cause problems for Moldova. Last year, Kiev’s intelligence services warned Moscow coup plan stopped and ousted Sandu, using a pro-Russian opposition party to overthrow the government. Presidential and parliamentary elections in October will be a key moment for Moldovans to decide their future – and a chance for outside powers like Russia to intervene.
In response, Brussels has deployed a mission to the country Helping to counter disinformation designed to undermine Moldova’s EU ambitions.
“The EU needs to continue helping Moldova in terms of energy so that they become fully independent from Russia,” said Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “And we need to make sure we are not afraid of Putin’s provocations at home if things escalate – if we don’t want the West to be seen as a paper tiger, we need to be prepared to help Moldova. will be.”