Ankara: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that Turkey is in no hurry to launch a new military operation against armed Kurdish militants.
But regional actors have expressed their concerns over a possible Turkish attack against the cities of Tal Rifat and Manbij.
“There’s no need to rush. We don’t need to do that,” Erdogan told reporters in Madrid, where he met with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the NATO summit. Erdogan gave no timeline for the planned operations Didn’t give
the stakes are high. Experts believe that Turkey still lacks Russian support for a military intervention against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers a terrorist group with direct links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). relation.
Oyatun Orhan, coordinator of the Syria study at the ORSAM think tank in Ankara, said Russia’s failure to support the operation remains its major obstacle.
“Ankara decided to launch a military offensive on Syria, while the world’s attention is focused on the war in Ukraine – and after thousands of Russian troops withdrew from Ukraine. However, Russia is now clearing Turkey’s operation in Ukraine or Syria. Can’t afford to look weak in both,” he told Arab News.
Orhan said Turkey only targeted the target on the Turkish-Syrian border as a retaliation against the YPG’s attacks.
“I do not expect a large-scale operation in which the Syrian National Army will act as ground forces and Turkish forces will provide air support,” he said.
Ankara has previously conducted three military operations in the region: the Euphrates Shield in 2016, the Olive Branch in 2018, and the Peace Spring in 2019.
Troops from both Russia and the Syrian regime have been increasing in northern Syria since early June ahead of a possible Turkish operation.
Iran has also been very vocal in its opposition to any Turkish military operation in the region.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh recently said: “The Syria file is a matter of dispute between us and Turkey.”
Iran’s foreign minister visited Damascus on Saturday after Turkey threatened to launch a new offensive.
“From both an ideological and strategic point of view, Iran attaches importance to the defense of Shia settlements – especially the two Shia cities of Nubal and al-Zahra. And there are also some Shia militias fighting alongside the YPG in Tal Rifat,” Orhan said. .
“However, at this point, Russia’s position is much more (important for Turkey) than Iran’s concerns, as Russia controls airspace in northern Syria and has to allow Russian forces before approving any Turkish operation.” have to be taken back,” he said.
Some experts have suggested that Turkey used its potential Syria operation as a bargaining chip during its recent talks with Washington. According to a White House readout, when Erdogan met with Biden on June 29, they discussed the importance of maintaining stability in Syria.
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mainly led by the YPG, still holds large areas of northeastern Syria. Washington regards the Syrian Kurds as an important ally against Daesh.
Although the Biden administration has repeatedly said it accepts Turkey’s security concerns, it has also warned that any Turkish operation in northern Syria could put US troops at risk, and the fight against Daesh could be jeopardized. can weaken.
CATS Fellow Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs believes that, given the sequence of events, the Turkish operation is inevitable.
“It (will) happen sooner or later. Because Turkish leaders are seeing threats from northern Syria to Turkey, we should expect some sort of military operation,” he told Arab News.
“But the scope of the operation has been a matter of speculation, because initially, Turkish officials were talking about a vast area from Tal Rifat and Manbij to the east of the Euphrates, but they did not support the expansion of the operation after US protests.” Reconsidered. East of the Euphrates, ”said Azizi.
Azizi is expected to be a limited operation, primarily aimed at expanding Turkey’s sphere of influence in the region.
Turkey’s original plan was to set up a 30-km-deep security zone along its southern border to push back the YPG and bring back some 1 million Syrian refugees in a wider safe zone.
President Erdogan recently announced a reconstruction plan so that Syrians can return to their homeland.
Azizi believes the “main friction” over this potential operation will be between Iran and Turkey.
“Iran is concerned because if Turkey – or Turkish-backed troops – control Tal Rifat, they have access to Aleppo, where Iran is present, which would give them further access to central Syria.”
Iran is still a major ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad, but also an important trade partner for Turkey.
Unless Turkey is able to come up with a new plan that eases Iran’s concerns, Azizi expects a response from the Iranian side – albeit an indirect one, through indirect forces.
“Such a move could prompt Turkey to further strengthen ties with Arab countries and to cooperate further with Israel,” he said.
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