Dr. Abdullah bin Musa Al Tayer
The Arab coalition’s intense bombardment by air, land and sea confused the Houthis, cemented the possibility of division in their ranks, and increased the frequency of their leaders’ lies in local and global public opinion. At a time when the terrorist group was not listening to calls made by international organizations, he started holding press conferences on the streets. To gain sympathy, and in its media statements, it uses phrases accusing the United Nations of “not moving a finger” and accusing the Arab coalition. “Violation of international law.” The language of military power spoken by the Coalition these days is outside “humanitarian laws and international conventions and covenants”.
The Houthis are an ideological group, culturally backward, and politically illiterate, who found themselves ruling a country like Yemen following a coup against legitimate authority due to the betrayal of some influential Yemenis to their country. The Houthis did not implement United Nations resolutions, especially Security Council resolution 2216, and the Houthis did not care for the international community, as the doctrine of Wali al-Faqih found itself implementing its law based on the guardianship of a jurist. sees in relation to. Tehran. The Badr Corps, which is backed by the Revolutionary Guard, belongs to the international community, while the group is concerned about Iran’s tight grip on Yemen.
Suddenly al-Houthi finds itself under a flame of bombs falling from all directions, the Navy thwarting the arrival of military supplies from Iran, the Sultanate of Oman controlling its borders, and political dialogue with the State of Iran. was engaged in, and was directing all his efforts. Negotiations in Vienna under threat from the US and Israel threatened military action in the event of a failure, and the group found itself an orphan following the death of Iranian Hassan Erlo. Due to this suffocating pressure, al-Houthi noted that there are international and humanitarian laws, and previously he called for state orientation to international and humanitarian organizations and the implementation of the Security Council resolution and the Houthi aggression against Saudi Arabia. looked to stop. Civilian objects as Saudi’s weakness and inability to counter its drones and Iranian-made ballistic missiles.
To justify the size of the losses and downplay the severity of the setback that intimidated followers of the Houthi movement, the leader of the coup group, Muhammad Ali al-Houthi, resorted to portraying the military operations as “American, British”. took. Saudi, Emirati” aggression backed by other allies, thinking that such intimidation would strengthen the group’s belief that they are “weak” in the face of “global arrogance”. Muhammad Ali al-Houthi finds this patience long will not last for time, because al-Houthi is not a single cloth, but a component of a social system in which some loyalists are accustomed to rent and move from camp to camp for their personal interests, and this is Yemen. In Wali al-Faqih, concerns Abd al-Malik al-Houthi.
The seriousness of the coalition’s military operations is an inevitable result of the Houthis’ miscalculations; He hoped that the US administration, which removed him from the list of terrorism, would put pressure on the coalition countries, and that it would not allow a fundamental change in the balance of power and the battlefield. This calculation failed; The US wants to put Iran’s project under extreme pressure in the region to force it to make concessions in negotiations, and it has largely succeeded.
Apart from the US-Iranian accounts on which al-Houthi bet, Saudi Arabia has its own national security accounts, and does not receive instructions in this regard. In past years, it has tried to maneuver politically and militarily, perhaps with al-Houthi injecting Yemenis’ blood and restoring its right to legitimacy. It launched its own peace initiative, and sent positive messages secretly and publicly, but al-Houthi does not understand the messages, and cannot understand them, but instead sends them to Tehran waiting for guidance, because he yes, Yemen does not fight, and with the death of the Iranian ambassador, the Houthis lose direct contact with the decision maker, and coalition forces do not give them a chance to hold their breath, causing them to fear inside Yemen, as well. With the horrors generated by the Coalition’s typical attacks in places the Houthis were not accustomed to targeting.
The Yemenis, allied with al-Houthi, and fighters in its ranks, feel that Iran is unable to provide aid to them today. They also feel the determination of the Gulf states in particular and the Arabs in general that al-Houthi is not a Yemeni component subject to aggression from neighboring countries, but a terrorist organization in a foreign network that includes the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. , the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Lebanese and Iraqi Hezbollah. Therefore, the Houthis will not receive asylum if a military effort continues at this pace, except to return to Yemen through legitimacy and political dialogue with constituents of Yemen.
The military escalation against the Houthis would lead to further division within the group’s leaders, and its allies inside Yemen would abandon it, and Ansar Allah would beg for talks very soon.
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