With the 2022 assembly elections approaching, exit polls on Monday predicted a second term for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP In the politically important state of Uttar Pradesh. in Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party The ruling Congress party is likely to be ousted from power. While the BJP has an advantage in Manipur, voters have predicted a tight race between the saffron party and the Congress in Uttarakhand and Goa. The actual results will be out on March 10.
Here’s a look at how exit polls fared in the last elections of 2017:
Uttar Pradesh
All the exit polls had predicted that the BJP would emerge as the single largest party after the 2017 elections. However, there was difference of opinion on the exact number of BJP wins in the exit polls.
The CNN-IBN exit poll results predicted that the BJP would take a clear lead in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections with 185 seats, but falling short of the majority required to form the government in the state. According to the poll, Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance will get 120 seats, while Bahujan Samaj Party About 90 seats will be available.
Here’s what other news agencies predicted in 2017:
India Today | SP+Congress (120), BJP (185), BSP (90), Others (9)
Times Now | SP-Congress (110-130), BJP (190-210), BSP (57-74), Others (8)
ABP | SP-Congress (156-169), BJP (164-176), BSP (60-72), Others (2-6)
India News | SP-Congress (120), BJP (185), BSP (90), Others (8)
India TV | SP-Congress (135-147), BJP (155-167), BSP (81-93), Others (8-20)
Result: The BJP won more than 300 seats, while the SP and BSP, which dominated the politics of Uttar Pradesh for more than two decades, were beaten like never before. The BSP won only 19 seats, down from 80 in 2012, the lowest since 1991, when the party won 12 seats. The SP won 47, the lowest since the party’s inception in 1992.
Punjab
In 2017, India Today-Axis exit polls suggested that the Congress would secure a comfortable majority of 62-71 seats in the state.
The C-Voter exit poll had put AAP at the forefront of the election and gave it a share of 59-67 seats, which means a majority in the assembly. This gave the Congress 41-49 seats. Today’s Chanakya exit poll had predicted a tie between AAP and Congress.
Result: The Amarinder Singh-led Congress party secured a clear majority with 77 seats. AAP won 20 seats, SAD 15 and BJP three.
Uttarakhand
Most of the exit polls had predicted that the BJP would win a big victory in Uttarakhand in 2017. The exit poll survey conducted by the India Today group in association with Axis claimed that the BJP would win between 46-53 seats and the Congress between 12 and 21. News24-Chanakya, meanwhile, had predicted at least 53 seats for the BJP and just 15 for the Congress. MRC had predicted 38 seats for Congress, 30 for BJP and 3 for other candidates.
Result: BJP won 57 out of 70 seats with a huge majority. Congress seats were reduced to just 11 seats, while SP and BSP failed to win even a single seat.
Manipur
c-voter Exit polls gave BJP 25-31 seats in the 60-seat assembly. It predicted that the Congress would win 17-23 seats while other parties and independents would get 9-15 seats. India Today-Axis had predicted a victory for Congress with 42% vote share. In the exit polls, Congress got 30-36 seats and BJP got 16-22 seats.
Result: In 2017, the Congress emerged as the single largest party in the Manipur elections, winning 28 seats in the 60-member assembly, but it failed to form a government. The BJP, which won 21 seats, came to power in alliance with Konrad Sangma’s National People’s Party and Nagaland’s Naga People’s Front, which won four seats each.
The scales were delicately balanced in the battle for supremacy, with the election results headed for a hung House. The final ending was not without controversy – although the Congress had emerged as the largest party, Governor Najma Heptulla called on a BJP-led coalition to form the government.
The results also marked the end of the Congress government led by Okram Ibobi Singh. Although Singh, who was chief minister for 15 years, lost the big fight, he won from Thoubal seat. Rights activist Irom Sharmila, who contested against Singh, got only 90 votes. BJP’s N Biren Singh, who was a former minister in the Congress government, took oath as the CM.
Goa
India Today C-Voter exit poll results predicted BJP’s victory in the election. It said BJP could win 18-22 seats, Congress 9-13 seats and AAP 0-2. India TV’s exit polls had predicted that BJP could win 15 seats, followed by Congress (10 seats) and AAP (7 seats).
Result: The results of the Goa assembly elections in 2017 reflect a kind of familiar pattern that emerged on two occasions – in 2002 and 2007 – when elections gave fragmented mandates and regional parties played the role of kingmakers.
In 2017, the Congress emerged as the single largest party, winning 17 seats in the 40-member House. But it failed to form the government as it was four seats short of the majority mark. Instead, it was the BJP, which came second with 13 seats, that formed a ruling coalition with regional parties such as the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (3 seats), the Goa Forward Party (3 seats) and two independents.
The Aam Aadmi Party failed to win even a single seat.
Most of the Congress heavyweights won and it also won six seats from the BJP. But since then, the grand old party has suffered crushing in the state on the back of a steady stream of defection. In 2019, 10 Congress MLAs jumped into the saffron camp and the BJP, which had a comfortable majority, ousted its alliance partners.