Around the same time last year, coronavirus There was a steady decline in cases in India, while record numbers of infections were being detected in most of Europe, the United States and Brazil. The festive season in India had gone off without a spurt in cases, and even an election was held in Bihar. Normal activities were resuming and most people mistakenly believed that the worst of the pandemic was over.
Even after a year, the situation is the same. The daily number of cases in India is the lowest in 18 months. The five-month steady decline in cases after the disastrous second wave has, in most cases, ensured a return to normal activities. And the general abstinence, once again, seems like the worst-case scenario is probably over for India. This is even as Europe and America and many other countries are in the worst phase of this pandemic so far.
However, behind those similarities lie important differences between the conditions of last year and now. Some of these, the danger from omicron For example, events point to the possibility of repeating themselves, while others – such as the development of vaccines, and even therapeutics – indicate that 2022 may be remarkably different from 2021 for the better. could. However, the uncertainty so far and the experience of the pandemic make it difficult for anyone to predict.
ommicron threat
The Omicron variant has surfaced around the same time this year. delta version, its immediate predecessor initially known as the double mutant, was first discovered last year. But unlike Delta, Omicron was identified and quickly flagged for better genetic surveillance.
At least for India, the threat from Omicron is much different than from Delta. The delta variant emerged in India and circulated among the population for more than two months before being flagged. By that time, it had already infected many people, and when the surge occurred, with unprecedented speed, India was caught completely unprepared.
With Omicron, India had enough advance warning. And even though the actual number of omicron infections will, in all likelihood, be many times higher than the 600-odd cases already confirmed so far, it is unlikely that this rapidly spreading variant will have a run as delta. Will happen.
The biggest relief is that Omicron causes a milder form of the disease than Delta. All studies to date have indicated this, and none have presented any counter-evidence.
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This does not mean that India will remain unaffected by Omicron. Many states have already started seeing a spurt in new cases. Because of its ability to evade an immune response and to infect even people who have previously been infected or fully vaccinated, omicrons spread very rapidly. If the current situation in Europe and America is anything to go by, a large increase in cases by mid-January cannot be ruled out. Whether it will be equal to the second wave, or even the first, is not something one cannot predict.
Based on the current evidence, it is expected that it will not be as deadly as the second wave. Quite broad coverage of vaccines, introduction of booster doses, and relatively early response in the form of restrictions can keep growth at manageable levels. The most important factor, as always, will be people’s compliance with COVID-appropriate behaviour.
Vaccination
The effect of vaccination is now visible all over the world. It is true that it was initially argued that vaccines would protect people from infection, which turned out to be not the case. Even when Delta was the most prominent version, a large number of breakthrough transitions were taking place. With Omicron, it has only increased. In fact, there is hardly any difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated as far as infection with omicron is concerned. Breakthrough infection occurs because most current vaccines were developed on virus strains that were prevalent in the early stages of the pandemic. Since then the virus has undergone several mutations, including sites used by the immune system to block its entry into the human body. Omicron is by far the most mutated variant known, with more than 50 significant mutations, including critical mutations that enhance the ability to evade an immune response.
However, vaccines have made a significant difference in reducing serious diseases and mortality. This was evident even at the time when the delta was prevalent. As vaccination increased, hospitalizations and mortality rates decreased. This is also true with Omicron. Countries like the UK are currently detecting three to four times more cases than their previous peak, which are mainly infected with Omicron. The mortality rate has increased only marginally, and most deaths are occurring without vaccination. The UK has reported around 40 deaths among people infected with Omicron, but it is still unclear whether Omicron was the cause, or just accidental.
Furthermore, the new vaccines that are now emerging are likely to be better and more effective, possibly providing longer-term immunity. India has just authorized two more vaccines, one developed by Novavax and manufactured by Serum Institute in India, and the other by Hyderabad-based Biological E in collaboration with Baylor College of Medicine.
medical law
Along with vaccines, there is also the possibility of treatment COVID-19 becoming mainstream in 2022. On Tuesday, India approved Molnupiravir, an antiviral drug manufactured by Merck and Ridgeback, for emergency use. The drug is believed to prevent the development of serious conditions in infected people with mild or no symptoms. Several other similar candidates are also available and more are in the process of development. If these prove to be effective, they could potentially eliminate the fear and disruptions associated with the escalation of cases.
Variants
Some scientists believe that the spread of Omicron may be the beginning of the end of the pandemic. This is an optimistic scenario, no doubt, but it has no basis in science. There is no clarity about what the “end” of the pandemic means – whether the disease will disappear completely, or whether it will continue to emerge, but will no longer be a threat due to the availability of effective vaccines or treatments .
In the first year of the epidemic, several types – alpha, beta, gamma, lambda, kappa, lambda, mu, and more – had evolved. Different types became dominant in different population groups. Delta was the first globally major variant, and to date, is the deadliest of all geographic regions. It took a whole year for the next significant version, Omicron, to appear. The fact that Omicron, despite being much more permeable than Delta, has turned out to be lighter by the evidence so far, offering hope against the emergence of stronger variants in the future. But the possibility of such a thing never happening cannot be ruled out.
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