GENEVA: Ethiopia risks descending into sectarian violence and experiencing a chaotic Kabul-style exodus if the year-long conflict escalates into the capital, Addis Ababa, the UN aid chief has warned.
In an interview with AFP, Martin Griffiths expressed deep concern for the stability of the nation of 115 million people made up of more than 80 ethnic groups.
UN Under Secretary of State for Humanitarian Affairs Griffiths said the conflict in Ethiopia has created perhaps the world’s most worrying humanitarian crisis.
He warned that fighting and escalating sectarian violence in the capital Addis Ababa could worsen the situation “rapidly”.
Humanitarian organizations are scrambling to respond to growing needs in Ethiopia, and creating contingency plans in case the crisis deepens.
Griffiths said, “From a humanitarian point of view the worst I feel (will happen) is if there is a fight for Addis or an upheaval, which leads to increased sectarian violence across the country.”
“If it does, we are facing something that I don’t think we have faced many years ago: we are facing a fracture of the fabric of Ethiopia.”
The chaos emanating from such a situation will be far more frightening than what has happened in the last 13 months.
According to UN estimates, thousands have been killed, two million displaced and hundreds of thousands more famine-like since the conflict began in November 2020.
The conflict began when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops to the northernmost Tigre region to topple the Tigre People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – a move he said came in response to rebel attacks on army camps.
The rebels withdrew, capturing most of the Tigre by June before expanding into the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.
The conflict took a sharp turn about a month ago, when the TPLF claimed to have captured strategic cities on a major highway in the capital.
But last week Abiy positioned itself in the conflict zone, and the government has since claimed it is in control of several cities, including Lalibela, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Griffith called for an end to the violence.
Even if the fighting reaches Ethiopia’s capital, he insisted that “major targets should be avoided,” including the airport and the city, with a population of more than five million, “where such fighting It’s unimaginable to think about.”
He said: “The real, fundamental concern is that if the conflict turns into sectarian violence in different parts of the country, as opposed to conflict between the government and specific groups … it will make everything worse faster. “
While the United Nations was intent on staying to provide aid, he said fears are high among expatriates such as diplomats and others in Addis that the country could lead to a chaotic airport evacuation reminiscent of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August. .
He worries that “something similar could happen to what happened in Kabul,” he said.
Asked if he believed it could actually happen, he said: “I think it could happen, but I hope it doesn’t.”
Speaking to AFP ahead of the launch of the annual Global Appeal of the International Humanitarian Communities, Griffiths explained that about $3 billion was requested next year to meet aid needs in Ethiopia, a dramatic comparison to previous appeals. was more than “because of the possibility that these needs will increase.”
The United Nations’ World Food Program said last week that the number of people in need of food aid in Ethiopia’s war-torn north has risen to more than nine million, while drought has deepened food insecurity in other regions.
The United Nations warned that 400,000 people in the north of the country were at risk of famine, but Griffiths said a lack of fuel and access to an assessment of the situation on the ground meant a complete famine had yet to be confirmed. .
With better access and more available fuel, UN agencies are now aiming to conduct an assessment within weeks.
Asked whether there was a risk of a recurrence of the devastating famine that killed more than a million people in Ethiopia in the mid-1980s, Griffiths said he did not expect it.
“I just hope to God that we’re not going to see that kind of misery.”
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