RARELY has a toilet break raised such a stink. Two days after senior NCP leader Ajit Pawar went missing at a crucial moment at the party’s National Conference meeting Sunday, skipping a scheduled speech he was to deliver, as uncle and party supremo Sharad Pawar waited, speculation is still to die down.
The bitter memory of Ajit’s night-time rebellion of 2019, when he even got sworn in as Deputy CM as the BJP tried to form a government, is still fresh in NCP minds. As is the bad blood between him and NCP state president Jayant Patil for supremacy.
It was while Patil was addressing the National Conference that Ajit left the stage. Ajit later said that a harmless toilet visit explained his absence, that he didn’t eventually give his speech as time was short, and that too much should not be read into the episode. The NCP had “given me a lot”, he said.
However, few are buying this argument amidst the flux in Maharashtra politics.
Observers are watching how this benefits the BJP, for one. Having agreed to play second fiddle to the Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena in the new government, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis would like little better than to keep Shinde on tenterhooks. Given Ajit’s short-lived 2019 dalliance with Fadnavis, Shinde could take the message that he is not irreplaceable for the BJP should the NCP leader again make the switch.
The Shinde Sena and BJP are yet to get over the hiccups of government formation, with Cabinet expansion delayed due to infighting and non-agreement over portfolios, and appointment of guardian ministers yet to happen. Shinde is also hobbled due to his battle on the side with the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena for the control of the party.
Allegations over alleged irrigation and cooperative sugar mills scam against Ajit may be another incentive for the NCP leader to choose the BJP. Leaders of the BJP keep raising the prospect of central agencies raiding Pawar family members.
Even if the Ajit incident proves a mere storm in a tea cup, it suits the BJP to have an Opposition with confusion down its ranks. If NCP legislators are wondering about Ajit’s next move, ally Congress is fighting own uncertainty over the plans of former CM Ashok Chavan.
Ajit has also clearly upped the ante on his tussle with Jayant Patil, having earlier managed to get the Leader of Opposition post in the state Assembly that Patil had hoped to get.
Ajit was chosen over Patil for several reasons: the former’s absolute control over the legislative wing, the memory of his 2019 misadventure, and his vast network of resources, both in the administration and among other parties. This also makes him an acceptable face in case he chooses another side.
Patil, on the other hand, is seen to have a strong grip over the organisation. He has been touring the state at regular intervals and made key organisational appointments. Being the state unit head, he will also lead alliance talks in the coming civic polls. Above all, he enjoys the absolute trust of Sharad Pawar.
With his 2019 revolt, Ajit can perhaps no longer aspire to the same. But, at some level, Sharad Pawar, the grand old man of Indian politics and a past master at such political manoeuvring, may be appreciative of the nephew having learnt his lessons well.