As per the data available with Empowered Group-1 (EG-1), there has been a steady increase in the share of COVID-positive children under 10 years of age in the total active cases since March this year, as a second wave. Tasked with preparing the country’s Kovid emergency strategy.
Statistics show that the share of children aged 1-10 years in the total active COVID-19 Cases have increased from 2.80% in March this year to 7.04% in August (see chart). That is, out of every 100 active Kovid cases, about seven are children.
Emphasizing that the “slight change” towards children cannot be termed as “dramatic”, experts say the rising Covid cases in the age group of 1-10 years may be a result of adults’ low susceptibility to the virus. can.
The data was presented in the EG-1 meeting chaired by NITI Aayog member VK Paul, in which officials from various ministries, including the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, were present.
Statistics show that before March, in the nine months from June 2020 to February 2021, children aged 1-10 years accounted for between 2.72% to 3.59% of the total active cases.
Among the 18 states and union territories for which data are available for the month of August, Mizoram had the highest number of COVID-19 cases in children (16.48% of the total active cases) and Delhi had the lowest (2.25%). Eight states – Mizoram (16.48%), Meghalaya (9.35%), Manipur (8.74%), Kerala (8.62%), Andaman and Nicobar Islands (8.2%), Sikkim (8.02%), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (7.69%) ) and Arunachal Pradesh (7.38%) – recorded a higher proportion of children with COVID-19 than the national average of 7.04%.
States that recorded a ratio lower than the national average for August were Puducherry (6.95%), Goa (6.86%), Nagaland (5.48%), Assam (5.04%), Karnataka (4.59%), Andhra Pradesh (4.53%). , Odisha (4.18%), Maharashtra (4.08%), Tripura (3.54%) and Delhi (2.25%).
According to a report by the Technical Group on Population Estimates, children below the age of 10 years are estimated to constitute about 17 per cent of the total population by the end of March 2021.
The empowered group’s data assumes significance as some experts have said a third wave of COVID-19 is inevitable – given the high levels of the virus in circulation – amid fears that the next wave could kill children as well.
While no specific reason has been given for the rising Covid cases among children, a source said the trend could be due to “more exposure (to the virus) and more testing”.
“The proportion of children being admitted is higher than before. This mainly happens for two reasons. First, there is greater awareness and alertness; Second, vulnerability may also increase proportionately,” said another source, pointing to sero surveys that suggest higher exposure to the virus in children. “If we look at sero surveys, the positivity rate among children is 57-58 per cent. This shows that by and large, children are part of the pandemic and have always been a part of the pandemic,” the source said.
The fourth and latest round of national sero-survey for COVID-19 conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in June and July shows that the sero-prevalence in children aged 6-9 was 57.2% and 61.6 . 10-17% in the age group – less than 67.6% for the entire population.
Experts say that the increasing cases of Kovid in children may be the result of less susceptibility of adults to the virus.
“Overall, the proportion of COVID cases in children shows an increase as the vulnerability of adults has decreased… So, there is a slight change but if we look at the bigger picture, we cannot call it dramatic. We need to keep an eye on it,” the source said.
Noting that children have already been exposed to an extent, the source said, “There is no doubt that the severity of the disease in children is less than that of adults. The situation is not that we can say that children are overwhelmed and I don’t think the situation will come. “
Stating that the Covid-19 mortality rate among children is low, the source said, “There has been a marginal increase in the proportion of children admitted to hospitals. But due to preparedness and lessons learned from Kerala, the death rate is stable or less than before.
When asked about the strategy to deal with the cases of Kovid in children, the source said that vaccine candidates like Biological E are in the process of getting the necessary approvals for children below 10 years of age.
The second wave of Covid-19 began in March this year and peaked in the first week of May, when the national new case count stood at 4.14 lakh. Since then, the second wave has subsided. On Monday, India reported 27,254 new cases in the last 24 hours, taking the active caseload to 3,74,269.
Earlier, EG-1 had proposed that 5 per cent of ICU beds and 4 per cent of non-ICU oxygen beds should be replaced by non-ICU oxygen beds in pediatrics in view of fears that children may be affected in the next wave of COVID-19. Will be taken care of.
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